Marion_NC_WX Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 Since things are kinda dull right now in the weather dept...how about the start a prediction thread on where the first tropical system of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season will develop...this should make for some fun. Just to set some guidelines...you need the specify 3 things. Where the storm forms? When it forms? (down to a specific date or week) And who will it affect? I'll make my prediction later today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 June 25th, Eastern GoM, Tropical Storm at the strongest and it will impact central and north Florida with the possibility it grazes the panhandle pf FLA and extreme south Georgia. A big climo stamp from me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 Develops in the Gulf first week of August. Landfall Central Gulf. Drifts inland and causes heavy rain in the Lower Mississippi Valley. Hopefully moderate rain in the Tennessee Valley. No help for Southeast Coast rain debt (multiple years). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 Develops in GOM 2nd week of July,affects South Texas,Brownsville area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted May 8, 2012 Author Share Posted May 8, 2012 After some thought...I'm going with something east of Jacksonville Florida last week in June. An old front stalls down there and forms a system...maybe surface/upper low interaction. Rainy weather North Florida to Carolinas just before July 4th holiday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 Develops in the GOM in the 2nd week of June and moves into the Florida panhandle as a 70mph tropical storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 August 3rd... GOM. Tropical Storm at 65mph max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 August 7th Bay of Campeche TX/LA border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 Sometime within the first half of June, moderately strong tropical storm, max winds of 60mph with a landfall along the FL Panhandle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 Last of May, off Jacksonville, Savannah, or the Carolina's. A TD that sends some breezes into the coast, goes NE, and dissapates. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 How about the last week of May - Cuba through the Bahamas and up the east coast - Tropical storm at most. hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxFreak11 Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 Last of May, off Jacksonville, Savannah, or the Carolina's. A TD that sends some breezes into the coast, goes NE, and dissapates. T What he said..agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 Just north of the Bahamas. TS strength max. Only impacts a few fish at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 How about the last week of May - Cuba through the Bahamas and up the east coast - Tropical storm at most. hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 Still showing up on the 12z GFS as a GOM disturbance that would make landfall in the FL peninsula around the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 Ummmm off the Carolina coast May 20-23? Seriously though.....if water temps were just a bit higher then this thing could have had a chance http://www.wundergro...ls=1&rainsnow=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 815 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT INTERACTS WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES LITTLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY...IF NECESSARY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 Last of May, off Jacksonville, Savannah, or the Carolina's. A TD that sends some breezes into the coast, goes NE, and dissapates. T LOL not to bad.....I would have to say this is the winner.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 LOL not to bad.....I would have to say this is the winner.... I agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 Last of May, off Jacksonville, Savannah, or the Carolina's. A TD that sends some breezes into the coast, goes NE, and dissapates. T Impressive. Play lotto as soon as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 WTF, need mostly sun not ovc with drizzle/-rn, forecast looks abysmal over the next 3-5 as this retrogrades onshore, maybe around the tidewater, ne NC, who knows... BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012 500 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012 ...FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON FORMS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.2N 77.7W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM S OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 220 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.7 WEST. ALBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H...AND A SLOW SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012 500 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012 SATELLITE...RADAR...AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE SMALL SURFACE LOW LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA HAS ACQUIRED THE CHARACTERISTICS OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE CENTER FOR MORE THAN 18 HOURS...AND THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTH AWAY FROM AN AIRMASS BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS ROUGHLY ALONG 33N. BASED ON AN ASCAT PASS FROM AROUND 1530 UTC...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT. ALBERTO IS SITUATED IN A MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING...WITH A MARKEDLY DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS TO ITS NORTH AND WEST OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. GIVEN THIS...ONLY MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED DESPITE THE CYCLONE BEING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM GULF STREAM. ALBERTO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 96 HOURS...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY DAY 5. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND THE WEAKER DYNAMICAL MODELS. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS A BIT TO THE EAST OF THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS AND THE CIRCULATION CENTER SEEN ON RADAR...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 220/03. THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT IS COMPLEX...AS ALBERTO IS IN A REGION OF WEAK STEERING FLOW WITHIN A BROAD MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS A SLOW SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO DUE TO THE STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW CENTERED NEAR 36N/72W. AS THAT LOW MOVES WESTWARD AND WEAKENS BY SUNDAY NIGHT...ALBERTO IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AFTER 48 HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE STEERING FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY. GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF ALBERTO AND THE COMPLEX STEERING PATTERN...IT IS NOT SURPRISING THAT THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD...BOTH IN TERMS OF HOW FAR SOUTH AND WEST ALBERTO WILL MOVE...AND HOW SHARP THE TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WILL BE. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS GENERALLY CLOSE TO THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...AND IS OF VERY LOW CONFIDENCE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING. ALBERTO IS EARLIEST-FORMING TROPICAL STORM IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN SINCE ANA IN 2003. THIS IS ALSO THE FIRST TIME THAT A TROPICAL STORM HAS FORMED BEFORE THE OFFICIAL START OF THE HURRICANE SEASON IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND EAST PACIFIC BASINS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 32.2N 77.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 31.9N 78.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 31.7N 78.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 31.9N 78.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 32.7N 78.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 22/1800Z 34.5N 75.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 23/1800Z 37.5N 72.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 Lol, thank you, thank you Stronger than I would have thought, and if it retrogrades too far, I'll be pretty far off, but if it does eventually go out sea, and blow out, I will go buy a lotto Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 Lol, thank you, thank you Stronger than I would have thought, and if it retrogrades too far, I'll be pretty far off, but if it does eventually go out sea, and blow out, I will go buy a lotto Tony Your forecast was a lot better than some. 815 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES LITTLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ............................. BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012 500 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012 ...FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON FORMS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted May 21, 2012 Share Posted May 21, 2012 Thanks, Mr. Burns! I've been studing the Clammy Drizzle Storm Prediction cd I bought on the late night infomercial I really wanted Cold Rain's cd, but he's yet to produce it T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted May 21, 2012 Share Posted May 21, 2012 Thanks, Mr. Burns! I've been studing the Clammy Drizzle Storm Prediction cd I bought on the late night infomercial I really wanted Cold Rain's cd, but he's yet to produce it T Ah. Well it's a bit less impressive if you used the CDSP cd, but still not a bad job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 How about the last week of May - Cuba through the Bahamas and up the east coast - Tropical storm at most. hahaha Tony beat me, but this forecast isn't too far off! Amazing the GFS sniffed this disturbance, albeit WAY too strong, over two weeks out. Should be interesting to see what happens this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted May 25, 2012 Share Posted May 25, 2012 How about the last week of May - Cuba through the Bahamas and up the east coast - Tropical storm at most. hahaha It's looking good C Man! Tell ya what. If it backs into Ga. and gives you and me a good flooding, I'll share some of the prize money with you T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 So how about two May storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 So how about two May storms? and landfall of a strong tropical storm in Jacksonville, FL. That's my prediction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 June 25th, Eastern GoM, Tropical Storm at the strongest and it will impact central and north Florida with the possibility it grazes the panhandle pf FLA and extreme south Georgia. A big climo stamp from me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.