MN Transplant Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 In my (un)official capacity as co-climate enthusiast in the Mid Atlantic subforum, I am issuing a Hottest Year on Record Watch. Through the end of April, 2012 was the warmest on record by a full degree in Washington DC, and warmer than the current full-Year record holder (1991) by 2.8°F. To achieve the hottest year on record, DCA would have to average a +0.5° departure above 1981-2010 norms from May through December.REMEMBER...A HOTTEST YEAR ON RECORD WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS AREFAVORABLE FOR RECORD TEMPERATURES IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCHAREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOREARLY GROWING SEASONS, EXCESSIVE SWEATING, AND A LACK OF SNOWFALL.AN UPGRADE TO A WARNING MAY BECOME NECESSARY IN THE FUTURE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted May 7, 2012 Author Share Posted May 7, 2012 So, now that that's out there, we can hopefully look for a nice -3 summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 I was curious to see where BWI was at, so I averaged Jan-Apr for all months in this file(http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/climate/bwi/bwitemps.txt), put in amounts for Jan-Apr 2012, averaged those, and sorted it. BWI is second warmest so far: 1921 - 47.3 2012- 47.225 1949 - 46.95 1990 - 46.675 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 So, now that that's out there, we can hopefully look for a nice -3 summer. From your mouth to God's ears... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted May 7, 2012 Author Share Posted May 7, 2012 From your mouth to God's ears... We were -2.9° in the summer of 2000, so it isn't completely impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 It'll only be the hottest on rercord until next year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 AccuWeather says Naso fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted May 8, 2012 Author Share Posted May 8, 2012 AccuWeather says Naso fast So I should have gone straight to a warning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted June 4, 2012 Share Posted June 4, 2012 Jan-May 2012 ranked as the hottest on record for BWI. Below are the top three years for Jan-May: 2012: 51.58 1949: 50.72 1880: 50.58 Overall, 1949 and 1931 are tied as the two hottest calendar years at BWI, and we are ahead of them both so far. However, 1931 was the hottest autumn ever by a large margin, so the lead over 1931 will be tightening up quite a bit in a few months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 4, 2012 Share Posted June 4, 2012 Interestingly enough, I don't think it's been that warm. Between the three major airports in the area, we've had a combined 2 days (both at BWI) of temps at or above 90 since the end of March. I guess it just feels good compared to the last two years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 4, 2012 Author Share Posted June 4, 2012 Interestingly enough, I don't think it's been that warm. Between the three major airports in the area, we've had a combined 2 days (both at BWI) of temps at or above 90 since the end of March. I guess it just feels good compared to the last two years. May didn't have any big heat days, and yet was among the warmest on record because there weren't any real cool snaps. BWI had 3 days with a negative departure, and DCA didn't have a daily departure below -1. The positive vs negative departures this year are amazingly skewed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 4, 2012 Author Share Posted June 4, 2012 Jan-May 2012 ranked as the hottest on record for BWI. Below are the top three years for Jan-May: 2012: 51.58 1949: 50.72 1880: 50.58 Overall, 1949 and 1931 are tied as the two hottest calendar years at BWI, and we are ahead of them both so far. However, 1931 was the hottest autumn ever by a large margin, so the lead over 1931 will be tightening up quite a bit in a few months. For DCA 2012: 54.3 1991: 52.3 (eventual warmest year) 1990: 52.0 1998: 51.6 An average June-Dec would set the new yearly record for DCA at 60.4 (1991 - 60.2). Before considering that a lock, though, consider that Jun-Dec 2009 was below normal (as were 00, 03, and 04). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 4, 2012 Share Posted June 4, 2012 I'm a touch skeptical about this year being the hottest on record. We'll see I guess. I've done a bit of homework about what "may" happen the second half of this year. More speculative than scientific though. I think we have a 1 in 3 chance at ending JJA at or below normal in the MA region. I never like using DCA as the benchmark though. The higher lows in general skew the overall anomaly. We'll see what happens @ IAD and BWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted June 4, 2012 Share Posted June 4, 2012 For DCA 2012: 54.3 1991: 52.3 (eventual warmest year) 1990: 52.0 1998: 51.6 An average June-Dec would set the new yearly record for DCA at 60.4 (1991 - 60.2). Before considering that a lock, though, consider that Jun-Dec 2009 was below normal (as were 00, 03, and 04). While we figure in 2012 to break the annual DC record of 60.2 set in 1991, I think the recent 12 consecutive months record of 61.8 may stand for some time. Considering that seven of those 12 months have been in the top ten warmest historically (1871-2012) and five have been in the top five warmest, that will be a tough record to challenge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 4, 2012 Author Share Posted June 4, 2012 I'm a touch skeptical about this year being the hottest on record. We'll see I guess. I've done a bit of homework about what "may" happen the second half of this year. More speculative than scientific though. I think we have a 1 in 3 chance at ending JJA at or below normal in the MA region. I never like using DCA as the benchmark though. The higher lows in general skew the overall anomaly. We'll see what happens @ IAD and BWI. Yes, it isn't a lock. For comparison: BWIs totals are upthread. IAD's top 4 are the same, with 2-4 a little jumbled: 2012: 51.1 1998: 49.5 1990: 49.4 1991: 49.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 4, 2012 Share Posted June 4, 2012 Yes, it isn't a lock. For comparison: BWIs totals are upthread. IAD's top 4 are the same, with 2-4 a little jumbled: 2012: 51.1 1998: 49.5 1990: 49.4 1991: 49.0 1990 was a big +NAO during JFM and 91 was an overall +NAO through the same period so I would guess the big + anom was already established going into summer? I didn't look at temp data. 2012 was a big +NAO during JFM and we all know how fun last winter was. 1998 was an interesting ENSO year. Big strong Nino that faded really fast during the summer and went straight into a mod Nina. JFM of 98 was really warm. Especially in the NE. Summer was actually just about normal before the entire country torched from Sept-Dec. Considering it was a record year, the least anomalous part of the year was JJA. Not making any comparison to this year at all though. Just recapping what happened. 1990 featured a slightly cooler than normal JJA but it torched in Sept-Dec. 1991 was pretty warm during JJA. I'm just hoping we go normal this summer. I don't care if we have a top 5 year as a whole. I like to spend alot of time outside doing stuff and hot summers here suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 Temperatures year-to-date...historic... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Updated for June: The first half of the year (Jan 1 - Jun 30) was the hottest ever at BWI. Top five are listed below. 2012: 55.3 1949: 54.9 1880: 54.7 1921: 54.6 1991: 54 *Note that this only goes out to June 29- LWX doesn't have a summary of June 30 up yet for some reason; however, since June 30 was above average for the day, it wouldn't affect the outcome except to possibly make the final average slightly higher. Update 7/3/12: LWX now has the 30-day average for June, which I plugged into my speadsheet. It bumped up the 2012 average from 55.2 to 55.3. I'll be updating this once a month. Hopefully MN Transplant or RodneyS can do DCA if they have time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Updated for June: The first half of the year (Jan 1 - Jun 30) was the hottest ever at BWI. Top five are listed below. 2012: 55.2 1949: 54.9 1880: 54.7 1921: 54.6 1991: 54 *Note that this only goes out to June 29- LWX doesn't have a summary of June 30 up yet for some reason; however, since June 30 was above average for the day, it wouldn't affect the outcome except to possibly make the final average slightly higher. I'll be updating this once a month. Hopefully MN Transplant or RodneyS can do DCA if they have time. The top five First Half for DC are: 2012: 58.0 1991: 56.4 1990: 55.9 1976: 55.8 2002: 55.5 It's interesting that only 1991 and 2012 are in the top five in both cities. 1949 also averaged 54.9 in DC, but that was good for only 11th all-time. 1880 was cooler in DC than in Baltimore, at 54.1, for 18th all-time. And 1921 was 0.1 cooler in Washington, at 54.5, for 14th all-time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 9, 2012 Author Share Posted July 9, 2012 The top five First Half for DC are: 2012: 58.0 1991: 56.4 1990: 55.9 1976: 55.8 2002: 55.5 It's interesting that only 1991 and 2012 are in the top five in both cities. 1949 also averaged 54.9 in DC, but that was good for only 11th all-time. 1880 was cooler in DC than in Baltimore, at 54.1, for 18th all-time. And 1921 was 0.1 cooler in Washington, at 54.5, for 14th all-time. If the 2nd half of the year is merely average, 2012 will go down as the warmest year on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 9, 2012 Share Posted July 9, 2012 If the 2nd half of the year is merely average, 2012 will go down as the warmest year on record. It seems like it should be a lock but in just the last 4 years, July-Dec has averaged below normal twice (2008 & 2009). You have to go way back to 2000 for that period to be significantly below average though. We sure do seem to be stuck in warmer than normal a heck of alot lately so this year will probably take over the top spot with ease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 La Nina + Climate Change ftw January-June 2012: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 La Nina + Climate Change ftw January-June 2012: Any chance you can pull a similar map for Europe/Russia for the similar timeframe? Just curious if the pattern has displaced anoms or if the NH is warm everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 Any chance you can pull a similar map for Europe/Russia for the similar timeframe? Just curious if the pattern has displaced anoms or if the NH is warm everywhere. Well europe had one of its coldest winters on record, so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 Any chance you can pull a similar map for Europe/Russia for the similar timeframe? Just curious if the pattern has displaced anoms or if the NH is warm everywhere. Unfortunately, I don't know where to find a map like that which shows Europe/Russia. Those U.S. maps I pull are from NCDC, which only shows the U.S. I've seen some people pull +/- departure maps for the whole globe on here before but I don't know where they get them from. EDIT: Actually I found something for the whole globe, but its only on a monthly basis and calendar year basis (up to 2011) and its some interactive format that I can't save as an image. I've still seen people on here pull better maps than this though from somewhere: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/gcag/app.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 10, 2012 Author Share Posted July 10, 2012 Any chance you can pull a similar map for Europe/Russia for the similar timeframe? Just curious if the pattern has displaced anoms or if the NH is warm everywhere. As a whole, the extratropical NH has been running well above normal Apr-Jun after starting the year around the 30-yr average. That said, Europe had a terrible cold stretch, and England has had a miserable summer so far, so there are always going to be peaks/valleys. Satellite: http://www.remss.com...Ocean_v03_3.txt (3rd column of data is 20N - 82.5N) Month-to-month maps which are sort of equivalent are here: http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/climate/monthly.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 Thank MN. The month to month maps are really cool. It's too easy to become focused strictly on the US (and most importantly on the MA. lol). The US has been overall solidly warm for months and months. Europe and asia is a different story. Maybe it can flip sometime and we can get some big cool anoms during the summer and winter for a change. It appears tough to get big anoms in the southern hem. I assume this is due to a much larger h20 to land ratio south of the equator. The majority of the land mass south of the eq has been running below normal for a while. Nothing notable or anomalous. Just a bit cooler than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 30, 2012 Author Share Posted July 30, 2012 So, now that that's out there, we can hopefully look for a nice -3 summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 January 1 - July 31, 2012 was the hottest January 1 - July 31 period ever for BWI. Below are the top five (rounded to the nearest tenth of a degree): 2012: 59 degrees 1949: 58.7 degrees 1921: 58.2 degrees 1880: 58 degrees 1991: 57.6 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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