downeastnc Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 249 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 240 PM EDT SAT MAY 5 2012 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 240 PM UNTIL 1000 PM EDT. HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH OF NEW BERN NORTH CAROLINA TO 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF FLORENCE SOUTH CAROLINA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 248... DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM TRANSLATING SEWD ACROSS THE REGION. AMBIENT AIR MASS HAS BECOME HOT AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE VALUES UPWARDS OF 1000-2000 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER FLOW ATTENDANT TO IMPULSE WILL SUPPORT MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 5, 2012 Author Share Posted May 5, 2012 Well its safe to say that most of the triangle is getting some much needed rain at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Well its safe to say that most of the triangle is getting some much needed rain at the moment. Especially right now. Flood watch in Raleigh...saw a wreck on I-540 at around 10:30pm tonight, visability was insanely low. Not fun to drive in at all...had a few close calls with water dammed up on both exit and on ramps. * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... WAKE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA * UNTIL 200 AM EDT * AT 1055 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS TRAINING OVER WAKE COUNTY... FROM FALLS LAKE TO RDU INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT TO RALEIGH AND CARY. DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED THAT 2 TO 3.5 INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN WITH EARLIER STORMS. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 1.5 INCHES WILL OCCUR THROUGH MIDNIGHT... PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING. * LOCATIONS THREATENED WITH FLOODING INCLUDE RDU INTERNATIONAL... RALEIGH... WEST RALEIGH... CARY... APEX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JQPublic Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 I needed that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 Maybe change the title to this one to May Severe thread? Current Day 3 Outlook issued for the cold front moving in on Wednesday. Something to watch, although concern right now is only wind. We'll see where that goes. DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0153 AM CDT MON MAY 07 2012 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS VA TIDEWATER TO PORTIONS CAROLINAS/GA/AL... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFYING UPPER-AIR PATTERN FCST TO CONTINUE THROUGH PERIOD. NRN-STREAM PERTURBATION DESCRIBED IN DAY2 OUTLOOK WILL MOVE SEWD FROM UPPER GREAT LAKES AND MID/UPPER MS VALLEY...ACROSS SRN ONT...LOWER OH VALLEY AND AR BY 10/00Z. TROUGH SHOULD REACH LE...WV...AND PORTIONS AL/GA BY END OF PERIOD. RELATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD/SEWD FROM CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS AND MS EARLY IN PERIOD. FRONT SHOULD REACH DELMARVA...CAROLINAS...AND WRN GA BY 10/00Z...MOVING OFFSHORE CAROLINAS/GA AND EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS NRN FL PENINSULA BY 10/12Z. WRN LIMB OF FRONT WILL EXTEND OVER DEEP S TX INTO NRN MEX...E OF CLOSED MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE THAT SHOULD MOVE EWD OVER NWRN MEX DURING LATTER HALF OF PERIOD. ...VA TIDEWATER TO PORTIONS CAROLINAS/GA/AL... STG DIABATIC HEATING/MIXING OF WEAKLY CAPPED AND FAVORABLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TSTMS ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT...DURING AFTERNOON HOURS. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING WIND. SFC DEW POINTS MID 60S TO LOW 70S F WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG. AS MID-UPPER TROUGH APCHS...HEIGHT GRADIENTS ALOFT WILL TIGHTEN...CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASING CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR WITH TIME OVER FRONTAL ZONE AND IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT PARTS OF WARM SECTOR. GIVEN POSITIVE TILT OF TROUGH ALOFT...MEAN-WIND AND DEEP-SHEAR VECTORS WILL BE ESSENTIALLY PARALLEL TO ZONE OR ZONES OF LOW-LEVEL CONVECTIVE FORCING. THIS...IN TURN...WILL YIELD NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC WIND PROFILES AND TENDENCY TOWARD QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE. ALTHOUGH WARM-SECTOR BUOYANCY WILL BE FAVORABLE ACROSS MUCH OF MS/AL/SERN LA...FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SWWD EXTENT...MAKING SVR POTENTIAL MORE CONDITIONAL AND DISPERSED. ..EDWARDS.. 05/07/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1211 PM CDT TUE MAY 08 2012 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A PORTION OF THE SERN STATES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH NOW SITUATED OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...OH AND TN VALLEYS WEDNESDAY...BEFORE REACHING THE ERN SEABOARD OVERNIGHT. THE SWRN U.S. CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SWD INTO NRN MEXICO. COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN SRN QUEBEC SWWD INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND DEEP S TX EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EAST AND SOUTH BEFORE MOVING OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND GULF COASTAL REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ...SRN HALF OF GULF COASTAL STATES THROUGH MID ATLANTIC REGION... RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT INTO THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF SERN STATES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AREA. HOWEVER...POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND AREAS OF ONGOING SHOWERS/STORMS MAY LIMIT OVERALL DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL. WHERE POCKETS OF BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING OCCURS 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE WILL BE POSSIBLE. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT A COUPLE OF CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED VORTICITY MAXIMA OVER TX WILL REACH THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND SRN APPALACHIANS WITHIN BASE OF AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. STORMS MAY BE ONGOING WEDNESDAY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE FEATURES. ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND ALONG PRE-EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS THE SFC LAYER DESTABILIZES WITHIN A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. BELT OF STRONGER /40 KT/ MID LEVEL FLOW MAY ACCOMPANY THE VORT MAX INTO GULF COAST STATES...BUT WITH PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH LAGGING THE FRONT...SHEAR THROUGH A DEEP LAYER WILL REMAIN WEAK IN MOST AREAS AND SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELLS. GIVEN EXPECTED MODEST THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND VERTICAL WIND PROFILES...THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL. HOWEVER...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING OCCURS...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY STEEPEN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A THREAT OF MAINLY ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AS STORMS ORGANIZE INTO LINE SEGMENTS. I'm dying for some severe here obviously! This should give us a pretty good rain though and some cool light shows as it will be cloudy as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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