Feb Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/accuweather-2012-summer-forecast/64673 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 oh look...active severe weather threat from NYC to DC...shocked! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 And warm southeast with showers and t'storms over Florida! Amazing foresight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 Why don't they just stamp CLIMO on the map? LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 Why don't they just stamp CLIMO on the map? LOL. Cool on the CA coast. Warm in the Southeast. Showers and Tstms over Florida. Drier than winter and spring over TX and LA. Mid-late season tstms over AZ and NM. That's worse than climo, that's the definition of summer! The only departure is there $-whoring plug for active severe from Chicago to State College to the 95 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 Folks may want to consider moving after this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 "Drier than winter and spring over TX and LA." No duh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 Lack of prolonged heat in the northeast for 30+ years was why I relocated to Florida in '94. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 Nice climo picture by Accuweather. I bet that took a whole 5 minutes to put together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 This prediction can't be worse then the winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kylemacr Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 So, I love a good AccuWeather bashing as much as the next person... but maybe we shouldn't bash their forecast until we see if it verifies. Speaking of, maybe we need to save a screenshot (because we know that they are prone to change their forecasts to make them more accurate) and then compare at the end of the summer. It's also worth checking back with them throughout the summer to see how many times they tweak the forecast to make it more accurate... Also, do they make more in-depth reasoning of their forecast thinking available anywhere? Is that something that the Pro site gets? I'd be really intrigued to hear what goes into their forecasts, aside from ENSO and climo and a dartboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 So, I love a good AccuWeather bashing as much as the next person... but maybe we shouldn't bash their forecast until we see if it verifies. Speaking of, maybe we need to save a screenshot (because we know that they are prone to change their forecasts to make them more accurate) and then compare at the end of the summer. It's also worth checking back with them throughout the summer to see how many times they tweak the forecast to make it more accurate... Also, do they make more in-depth reasoning of their forecast thinking available anywhere? Is that something that the Pro site gets? I'd be really intrigued to hear what goes into their forecasts, aside from ENSO and climo and a dartboard. I hear they incorporate tsunami debris (TD) and it's given a lot of weight in their seasonal predictions. In fact, TD basically drove this past winter's record CONUS warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickD2011 Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 Didn't they predict a cold and stormy winter this year for the northeast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 It seems what they're predicting is a heat ridge to dominate over the Plains/Rockies and for it to be more troughy over the Northeast. Funny line: "lightning may cause wildfires". You think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 I'd like to see Accuweather put out a temperature and precipitation anomaly shaded map with aboves, normal and belows instead of this hand-wavy map with vague descriptions. ...you know, like all the other private weather companies and the CPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 It seems what they're predicting is a heat ridge to dominate over the Plains/Rockies and for it to be more troughy over the Northeast. This was my interpretation of it. I assume "lack of prolonged heat" in the northeast means cooler than normal, but of course they don't actually say cooler than normal so a slightly above normal can still verify their forecast. Also, the active severe weather near the base of a northeast trough makes some sense, but also does not allow for one to ever quantitatively verify it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 LaNina/LaNada summers tend to damp heat up in the NE so there is some precedence there for their gradient idea - the active severe weather business is simply demarcating that boundary. On another take, NCEP's write up calls for warm departures for the OV and NE and MA regions. One thing i have personally noted over the last decade is that whenever so much as a modestly warm pattern appeals to any given period of time what tends to verify in the books are outright positive departures - for me that trend is tough to discount. I don't know if I agree with them this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 They do have traditional maps for their summer forecast... it's just a bit hard to find: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 They do have traditional maps for their summer forecast... it's just a bit hard to find: Thank you for the find! I'm not quite sure why they think the ridge will be that strong during the summer... would be nice to see the discussion, too, if it's available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 That's unpossible. Everyone knows the NE will be in a drought because dry begets dry in March and April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 That's unpossible. Everyone knows the NE will be in a drought because dry begets dry in March and April. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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