A Longer Duration Multi-Year Warm Pattern For NYC Than The Past

[bluewave]

The period from 2010 into the beginning of 2012 is shaping up to be a longer duration multi-year warm pattern

than we have experienced here in the past. Up until 1990 we never saw two back to back years of 56 degrees

or greater for average temperature in NYC. In 1990 NYC recorded the warmest year on record with 57.2 degrees

surpassing the previous record of 57.0 degrees set in 1953. The record warmth repeated in 1991 with another

57.2 degree year. Our pattern cooled down in 1992 with a below normal temperature year of 53.9 degrees.

As the warming pattern continued, we closed out the 90's with a 57.2 in 1998 and a 56.5 degree year in 1999.

The following year the temperatures dropped back down below normal with a 53.9 degree average temperature

in 2000. The cool down was short lived and temperatures rebounded to 56.3 and 56.4 degrees in 2001-2002.

The next year we recorded another below normal year like during the past at 53.4 degrees for 2003. A few years

later we were approaching a record warm year again in 2006 at 56.8 degrees. The average temperature was back

above 56 degrees again in 2010 and 2011 coming in at 56.7 and 56.4 degrees.

This year is off to a much warmer start than 1992, 2000, and 2003. None of those years coming off of

multi-year warmth had the kind of record warmth that we started off 2012 with. While it's too early to

know for sure, this year has the potential to complete the first three year in a row period over 56 degrees in NYC.

I made a comparison to show how much warmer the start of this year is than the others.

January...2012...37.3...2003...27.5...2000...31.3....1992...35.7

February.2012...40.9...2003..30.1....2000...37.3....1992...36.4

March.....2012...50.9...2003..43.1....2000...47.2....1992...40.0

April........2012...54.8...2003..49.8....2000...51.0....1992...50.5

[easternsnowman]

The period from 2010 into the beginning of 2012 is shaping up to be a longer duration multi-year warm pattern

than we have experienced here in the past. Up until 1990 we never saw two back to back years of 56 degrees

or greater for average temperature in NYC. In 1990 NYC recorded the warmest year on record with 57.2 degrees

surpassing the previous record of 57.0 degrees set in 1953. The record warmth repeated in 1991 with another

57.2 degree year. Our pattern cooled down in 1992 with a below normal temperature year of 53.9 degrees.

As the warming pattern continued, we closed out the 90's with a 57.2 in 1998 and a 56.5 degree year in 1999.

The following year the temperatures dropped back down below normal with a 53.9 degree average temperature

in 2000. The cool down was short lived and temperatures rebounded to 56.3 and 56.4 degrees in 2001-2002.

The next year we recorded another below normal year like during the past at 53.4 degrees for 2003. A few years

later we were approaching a record warm year again in 2006 at 56.8 degrees. The average temperature was back

above 56 degrees again in 2010 and 2011 coming in at 56.7 and 56.4 degrees.

This year is off to a much warmer start than 1992, 2000, and 2003. None of those years coming off of

multi-year warmth had the kind of record warmth that we started off 2012 with. While it's too early to

know for sure, this year has the potential to complete the first three year in a row period over 56 degrees in NYC.

I made a comparison to show how much warmer the start of this year is than the others.

January...2012...37.3...2003...27.5...2000...31.3....1992...35.7

February.2012...40.9...2003..30.1....2000...37.3....1992...36.4

March.....2012...50.9...2003..43.1....2000...47.2....1992...40.0

April........2012...54.8...2003..49.8....2000...51.0....1992...50.5

This may prove at least for the big cities that above norm by 2 degrees or slightly more is now the new average. Since temps have increased on the east coast since 2000 ( more than before) and are now quite consistent, we may have to throw out the 1981-2010 averages and base the averages on the last 10 years or maybe since 2000 to get a more realistic picture of today's climate.

[JBG]

Weren't there quite a few warm years in a row during the early 1950's? I recall reading that the summers pretty much all posted 100+ readings and the winters were mild and snowless.