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Severe Weather Threat for 5/4/12 - Discussion & Obs


tornadojay

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81/66 here with bright sunshine..

Same. A lot of low-mid 80s popping up in E PA. Rebounded quite nicely given the clouds until a couple hours ago. Late daylight this time of year, so we've still got a couple more hours of heating.

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Most short range models that affect NYC and places further north/NW with storms this evening (HRRR, RAP) show additional storm development around 22-23z, 1-2 hours from now, over south/eastern NY and near NE PA, dropping SE. Most of the current scattered activity in PA should stay south of NYC, which is where I'd think the main activity stays, although the next few hours will be interesting to see where and when additional storm development takes place.

For what it's worth, the HRRR has this development near NE PA, but that model doesn't have excellent accuracy.

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Looks like any storms fire SW of the city?

It looks that way for sure...visible satellite is very quiet to our north and west ..about 1000 joules of SBCAPE away from the coast. Interestingly there's an area of around 30kts of effective shear which seems to be running along a convergence zone or wind shift boundary near the coast and marine layer. But we can't get anything in this direction at all..not even a remote sign of initiation to the north...so it does us no good.

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Funny how the last few days there were constant thunderstorms at night, but when it comes to a cold front set up like this one, nothing happens...

The storms basically stayed in PA throughout the day. The NAM still tries to develop something here late tonight but I find it questionable given its performance with storms over the last few days.

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