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Severe Weather Threat for 5/4/12 - Discussion & Obs


tornadojay

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0z euro from last night kept NYC mostly to fully cloudy the entire day today.

It had partial clearing for most of NJ from 10am to 4pm, before clouding up again.

It brings the clearing line near NYC at 18z but not through LI.

It looks like so far, its doing a great job.

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73 / 65. Bring on some late afternoon / evening boomers. Severe? I doubt to much other then a few isolated boarderline reports but I will enjoy the sight of a few flashing of lightning and the sounds of a few rumbles of thunder. Had a few of each during the early morning hours the past few days. Gets my storm chase blood flowing. 7 weeks from yesterday till I hit the road for my chasecation!

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You're chasing in July? Where?

73 / 65. Bring on some late afternoon / evening boomers. Severe? I doubt to much other then a few isolated boarderline reports but I will enjoy the sight of a few flashing of lightning and the sounds of a few rumbles of thunder. Had a few of each during the early morning hours the past few days. Gets my storm chase blood flowing. 7 weeks from yesterday till I hit the road for my chasecation!

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With the sun breaking through even out here in Port Jefferson LI, there's almost a wistful poetic vision, like Billy Tyne from the Perfect Storm with his line: " The fog's just lifting. Throw off your bow line. Throw off your stern. Etc." instead, you just wish, "the surface winds are from the southeast. The sounding show a twist through 0-6k with strong helicity and shear. The cape is high....etc"

Ahhh, just to dream.

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You're chasing in July? Where?

Chasing last week of June. Several reasons for it. One it is the easiest time for both my wife and I to get 2 weeks off work at the same time. Two I will not chase in May as it is just too darn crowded with chasers. Three I have chased a number of times in late June and had a great time and good success. The days are as long as they get thus chasing late into the evening is easy. Climatology suggest chasing further north in ND, SD, MT, WY, NE etc and that is the most beautiful chase country around. Storm motion is generally much slower thus chasing individual storms can be a much more leisurely paced endeavor. Late June for me has been and will always be my prime time chase season. The tour company I have worked with in the past even has a early thru mid July tour which is very popular. Last year they had a very active tour with multiple tornados. Of course I do not chase just to witness tornados I chase becasue I love the entire experience of it! And yes I did chase into Canada once!

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So close.

:sleepy:

mcd0694.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0694

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1226 PM CDT FRI MAY 04 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NE OHIO...MUCH OF PA...SRN NJ INTO DELMARVA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 041726Z - 041930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE

THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MAINLY UNORGANIZED CLUSTERS OR

PULSE-TYPE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE

HAIL AND STRONG-TO-SEVERE WIND GUSTS. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A

POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FROM

THE NRN CHESAPEAKE INTO CNTRL PA AND NERN OH IN A WARM...MOIST AIR

MASS AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WAS POSITIONED FROM

S-CNTRL NY WWD ACROSS NRN OH. FURTHER S ACROSS CNTRL PA INTO ERN

VA...A SFC TROUGH AND WARM FRONT WAS PROVIDING ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AS TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED THROUGH THE

UPPER 70S INTO THE LOW 80S...MLCAPE VALUES ARE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG

AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 1500-2000 J/KG BY LATER THIS

AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP OVERCOME MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF AROUND

20-30 KT TO SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 C/KM AND

COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SUPPORT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND

STRONG/GUSTY WINDS IN MAINLY DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS.

..LEITMAN/MEAD.. 05/04/2012

ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...AKQ...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON 39387441 40067476 40487507 41207575 41717670 42047928

41898031 41688114 41378119 40938042 39637876 38287727

38307598 38807508 39347449 39387441

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Nice increase in θe over the past 3 hours (~4K/hr in spots), corresponding with the increase in temperatures and slowly increasing dewpoints associated with the slow advection eastward. Not completely convinced it will be enough yet, but definitely a step in the right direction.

thte_chg.gif?1336159814996

thea.gif?1336159874993

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