phlwx Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 I'm just using the high res NAM on e-wall for an illustration but with the front moving in from the NW, it looks like there's a shot of some severe tomorrow afternoon & evening. The timing on the high res NAM suggests more evening than afternoon (the graphic above shows 8 PM and has thunder still over the Poconos) but I would think that things would fire up a bit earlier and move through around the dinner hour... 15% risk on SPC...mainly for wind. HEIGHTS WILL FALL AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE TOP OF UPPER RIDGE AND SEWD INTO THE NERN U.S.. THE WARMS SECTOR SOUTH OF ANY ONGOING CONVECTION AND WEST OF A N-S ORIENTED WARM FRONT SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND STORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. A BELT OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER 30-35 KT MID LEVEL FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE SEWD MOVING IMPULSE. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR A THREAT OF MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 This is like the equivalent to a high risk out west! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 On a more serious note...looks like we get a little toasty during the day. Cape and LI are decent by 21z. However, shear and forcing looks a little suspect. It does look like we have an EML and a somewhat inverted V sounding ,(although not as extreme as you would see out west). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 This is like the equivalent to a high risk out west! Already forgetting about 2008 are we.....this area can get some pretty decent severe wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Already forgetting about 2008 are we.....this area can get some pretty decent severe wx. A little morning humor never hurt nobody ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 From the 12z Nam for PHL burbs... Not a half bad sounding thermo wise. Sent from my iPad HD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 From the 12z Nam for PHL burbs... Not a half bad sounding thermo wise. Sent from my iPad HD Plenty to work with I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 New Day 2 outlook holds serve, also mentions possible rotating storm development, with a chance of large hail, along with damaging winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Best potential since the "event" that produced that EF0 in NE phila last year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 fwiw, the 12z euro isnt to enthused with anything really widespread tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Rotating storms...definitely could be an interesting Friday, unless the Euro is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted May 3, 2012 Author Share Posted May 3, 2012 drag thinks we could hit 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted May 4, 2012 Author Share Posted May 4, 2012 slight risk holds today...generally same spots. 0 tornado 15 wind 15 hail NWS PHI says best dynamics north, best instability south...in other words, thread the needle! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 slight risk holds today...generally same spots. 0 tornado 15 wind 15 hail NWS PHI says best dynamics north, best instability south...in other words, thread the needle! under Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted May 4, 2012 Author Share Posted May 4, 2012 under I think under on hail...wind *might* verify...willing to take the 15 on that. wouldn't go any higher than bare slight risk. If we clear off by 10/11, I *could* see them issue a watch issued but it might be one of those days that just gets a few warnings, a couple of reports of 50-60 mph winds. Not a good setup but I think if anyone gets it, it's somewhere within a IPT-MPO-RDG-LNS range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 Nice MCS in WV, wonder if it's got any shot of making it to the southern areas of the CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 Let's see if we can get out from under this marine layer.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 If we didn't have the aid of the jet (rt entrance) then I would be very pessimistic today. I never like days when the flow veers and the dews get mixed out. However, I think enough southerly component / instability with remnant vort over NW PA may be sufficient for the Mid Atlantic. It is a shame the stronger mid level flow is exiting quickly and to the north today; otherwise, we would have had a better shot for an outbreak-like day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fsu_wxgirl Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 Let's see if we can get out from under this marine layer.. I'm hoping we'll get some clearing once the warm front lifts further northward...but right now we're socked in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 i think if you dont see the sun by 1 or 2 you can kiss the severe weather bye bye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 i think if you dont see the sun by 1 or 2 you can kiss the severe weather bye bye hmmmmm.....based on satellite, the Delaware Valley will be the last to see sun in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 hmmmmm.....based on satellite, the Delaware Valley will be the last to see sun in the area. Clearing to the n,NW, e, se,s, erc... Everywhere but here lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 Full sun here, not a cloud in the sky. 72 degrees and climbing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted May 4, 2012 Author Share Posted May 4, 2012 Just starting to brighten now in limerick...damn marine deck is fighting like mad as long as it can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 I see blue! He looks glorious! Skies breaking here in delco. I'd say another hour and we'll have full sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 Severe Thunderstorm Warnings to the southwest...maybe there's still hope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 Went from cloudy to mostly sunny in 30 minutes. Let the 80s begin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 Went from cloudy to mostly sunny in 30 minutes. Let the 80s begin! About the same here. Went from full clouds to almost wall to wall sun with a patchy cloud here or there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnc Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 beggars can't be choosers... but hey... MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0694 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1226 PM CDT FRI MAY 04 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NE OHIO...MUCH OF PA...SRN NJ INTO DELMARVA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 041726Z - 041930Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MAINLY UNORGANIZED CLUSTERS OR PULSE-TYPE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG-TO-SEVERE WIND GUSTS. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE NRN CHESAPEAKE INTO CNTRL PA AND NERN OH IN A WARM...MOIST AIR MASS AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WAS POSITIONED FROM S-CNTRL NY WWD ACROSS NRN OH. FURTHER S ACROSS CNTRL PA INTO ERN VA...A SFC TROUGH AND WARM FRONT WAS PROVIDING ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AS TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED THROUGH THE UPPER 70S INTO THE LOW 80S...MLCAPE VALUES ARE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 1500-2000 J/KG BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP OVERCOME MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF AROUND 20-30 KT TO SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 C/KM AND COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SUPPORT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG/GUSTY WINDS IN MAINLY DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 beggars can't be choosers... but hey... MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0694 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1226 PM CDT FRI MAY 04 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NE OHIO...MUCH OF PA...SRN NJ INTO DELMARVA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 041726Z - 041930Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MAINLY UNORGANIZED CLUSTERS OR PULSE-TYPE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG-TO-SEVERE WIND GUSTS. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE NRN CHESAPEAKE INTO CNTRL PA AND NERN OH IN A WARM...MOIST AIR MASS AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WAS POSITIONED FROM S-CNTRL NY WWD ACROSS NRN OH. FURTHER S ACROSS CNTRL PA INTO ERN VA...A SFC TROUGH AND WARM FRONT WAS PROVIDING ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AS TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED THROUGH THE UPPER 70S INTO THE LOW 80S...MLCAPE VALUES ARE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 1500-2000 J/KG BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP OVERCOME MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF AROUND 20-30 KT TO SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 C/KM AND COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SUPPORT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG/GUSTY WINDS IN MAINLY DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS. This is about as good as we will get today. I really don't see this becoming a notable event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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