weatherwiz Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 From Hartford, CT to OKC round trip bus tickets are only $198!!! I seriously want to try and get out to the Plains next spring if I can. I would perhaps travel along with a friend or two but if we could find someone in the OKC area to stay with and go chasing with that would be awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 not too much like bowdle i guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 not too much like bowdle i guess Moisture/instability/low-level shear/forcing/strength of synoptic system were not as impressive today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Moisture/instability/low-level shear/forcing/strength of synoptic system were not as impressive today. i'd have thought we'd get at least one red dot. but timmer was all bowdleing out earlier. sigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Incredible light show as storms move into NP. Partially makes up for the 75 wasted miles today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 i'd have thought we'd get at least one red dot. but timmer was all bowdleing out earlier. sigh. I hope he wasn't actually comparing the two. I mean, yeah, Bowdle had similar cap questions and was in SD (I should know), but in terms of the environment, you'll never see a better sounding than that Aberdeen sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 just left the Rockies game and ended up getting hailed on just before getting to my car... on another note, what's up with the random 44,000 ft. cells firing north of Memphis, Tn? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Ping pongs here. This place truly is hail country. Every storm spits out severe hail it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Looks like an active weather day is setting up in North Texas. Should have a weak surface low develop near Mineral Wells which will back the surface flow. Overall wind-shear values will remain weak, but higher then they were today. With extreme instability values over 5,000 joules per kilogram and deep layer shear of around 30-40 knots, plus OFBs from today's convection, I think some folks will be getting quite the storm on Sunday. Hail to hen eggs and damaging downbursts are my concern as well as lightning since it will be a Sunday with several outdoor events in progress. We might get a very brief spinup if a storm plays all it's cards right, but that's a pretty slim possibility IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 http://www.theweathe...com/severe/llj/ This gives a better and more complete description of the nocturnal low level jet and the mechanism that helps form it. http://www.windwisdom.net/nllj.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 12z NAM still showing convection forming across S Central KS into NE OK later today. High instability but still pretty weak on wind shear. 0-1km EHI does increase to around 3 or so in OK around 03z. Tulsa NWS is expecting up to baseball size hail. Looks like gravity waves in S Central KS now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 12z NAM still showing convection forming across S Central KS into NE OK later today. High instability but still pretty weak on wind shear. 0-1km EHI does increase to around 3 or so in OK around 03z. Tulsa NWS is expecting up to baseball size hail. Looks like gravity waves in S Central KS now. Heading to S Central KS now... Zach you around? Where are you guys gonna target? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Not seeing any severe t-storm warnings on those cells near KC but an Amateur radio report stated 60-70 MPH t-storm winds estimated near Hamilton, MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Not seeing any severe t-storm warnings on those cells near KC but an Amateur radio report stated 60-70 MPH t-storm winds estimated near Hamilton, MO. I've learned that when a HAM reports 60-70 MPH winds without an actual measurement, just chop about 30% to 40% off the report and that's what the real winds end up being. That usually goes for anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Heading to S Central KS now... Zach you around? Where are you guys gonna target? We broke down an hour and a half into our trip. We are stalled and waiting on our backup vehicle to get here after getting the initial vehicle towed back to Asheville. We have been forced to sit today out but will be underway later this afternoon. Planning to target southern TX Monday and Tuesday... possible risk in South Dakota on Thursday. We will have to see how the models shape up. Not much of a chance, but it only takes on surprise storm to make a trip worth it. We will have fun no matter what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 We broke down an hour and a half into our trip. We are stalled and waiting on our backup vehicle to get here after getting the initial vehicle towed back to Asheville. We have been forced to sit today out but will be underway later this afternoon. Planning to target southern TX Monday and Tuesday... possible risk in South Dakota on Thursday. We will have to see how the models shape up. Not much of a chance, but it only takes on surprise storm to make a trip worth it. We will have fun no matter what. That's why I always rent cars when I go long distance. Don't have to worry about paying for breakdowns or damage, and saves the wear and tear on my car. It's really not that expensive either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Seems like bust after bust the past few weeks. From a subjective chasing-based perspective, I strongly agree. The pattern has been quite active with unseasonably-rich moisture available on the synoptic scale for most of the spring so far. What we have to show for all the "good parameter" days is relatively unimpressive. The recurring theme, in my eyes, has been troughs that hold back too far to the W of the target. The secondary problem has been BL moisture mixing out well beyond model forecasts. Both occurred yesterday. April 14 was the saving grace for most chasers' sanity, or at least mine. It fell perhaps one peg short of my expectations during the daylight portion of the event, but was still one of the better dryline outbreaks you'll see that early in the year. Aside from that day, it has largely been an exhausting train of teases and low-payoff events... many of those with 50-100+ green SpotterNetwork icons returning home in disgrace at sunset. It's time for a break... and we're certainly getting one now, like it or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 That's why I always rent cars when I go long distance. Don't have to worry about paying for breakdowns or damage, and saves the wear and tear on my car. It's really not that expensive either. Well it wasn't my car and it was a pretty customized chasing vehicle. We also have AAA so we didn't have to pay to tow it back. Either way, new slight up in southern TX on the new Day 2. Almost 0% tornado threat, but cells could be beautiful and have some big hail. We are headed to the Sonora, TX area when we get on the road here in an hour and a half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Man I'm looking at the long range models and still, nothing really eye catching. GFS maybe hints at some stuff in the days 9-17 timeframe but i'm not feeling it. I feel that we are in for boring times ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 I see a possible threat in the Dakotas on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 In Cherokee OK, nice large clearing area overhead, winds out of the East. Good area for setup of isolated cells. We'll be here for the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 We are in a clearing you can see on visible sat over north central OK. You can see the cold front clearly on base reflectivity, moving very slowly northwest of where we are: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 I see a possible threat in the Dakotas on Thursday. I don't know, if you are already heading to TX, you may want to just stay there and see if that cutoff ejecting low delivers. GFS has quite a strong cross barrier flow...and strong easterly flow into southern Texas. Doesn't look impressive at all on 500 charts, but there is quite a strong STJ there with some surprisingly long hodographs and deep low level moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 I hope he wasn't actually comparing the two. I mean, yeah, Bowdle had similar cap questions and was in SD (I should know), but in terms of the environment, you'll never see a better sounding than that Aberdeen sounding. I actually believe that yesterday was a monumental waste of a "potential" environment over SE SD. The actual environment and soundings were worthless simply because the outflow-reinforced boundary refused to lift. If it had lifted to or just past I-90 as far W of Chamberlain, the sky was the limit. The synoptic setup was not too dissimilar to 2003-06-24 (Woonsocket/Manchester), though I do question whether we would have seen comparable moisture, given how badly everything mixed out in NE. While the atmosphere is far too nonlinear to make these kind of assumptions in an absolute sense, to me, the stupid morning convection that tracked from SE SD into S MN wrecked one of the best-looking *potential* setups of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reber500 Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Storms are beginning to fire along the nearly Stationary Cold Front in East-Central KS near Emporia, a few of the storms look pretty ominous with a lowering... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Storms are beginning to fire along the nearly Stationary Cold Front in East-Central KS near Emporia, a few of the storms look pretty ominous with a lowering... Link to the lowerings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Tornado on the ground near EAX PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 614 PM CDT SUN MAY 06 2012 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0610 PM TORNADO OLATHE 38.89N 94.81W 05/06/2012 JOHNSON KS LAW ENFORCEMENT A TORNADO WAS REPORTED AT SANTA FE AND HIGHWAY 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 TOG 159th and I-35 in Johnson County, KS, 5 minutes ago. PD reporting rotation increasing, looks like its "about to drop." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Funnel/tornado on Caleb Elliott's cam, can't tell if there's a debris cloud. PD reporting it's on the ground. http://www.severestudios.com/cgi-bin/player.pl?username=caleb.elliott&uid=1484 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reber500 Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Link to the lowerings? I live near Emporia... So per me... (They weren't lowerings to really think much about not a whole lot of rotation, but they were there...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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