Ian Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Maybe a quite early to mid May--thus far-- is a sign of big Late May/ June... I'll drink to that. The mid lvl vort always progged a bit slow. Often there is too much talk of just potential rather than issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 It's been interesting we've had some significant winds with the elevated storms in S.D. Now storms might just be firing in the sand hills north of North Platte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Yes stuff is indeed firing now in East Central Nebraska. *Holds on to glimmer of hope* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 I'll drink to that. The mid lvl vort always progged a bit slow. Often there is too much talk of just potential rather than issues. No there was definitely a trend slower with the upper trough. My excitement level from two days ago plummeted significantly with that trend. Still thought a few would pop, which they did, but they were still pwned by SW flow/mid level temps and late arrival. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Click on the second link under the second session: http://www.crh.noaa....w_presentations Okay what I got from that is Richardson number =. 5 is Ideal for tornados. <.25 or > .75 makes it more difficult. Not that I have a grasp on what that means, however it is one of the parameters SPC has availible for display. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Well it was fun watching those explosive anvils go up S of North Platte. ::Sarcasm:: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reber500 Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN CHARLES MIX COUNTY UNTIL 845 PM CDT... AT 835 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF BURKE...OR 28 MILES SOUTH OF KIMBALL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Well it was fun watching those explosive anvils go up S of North Platte. ::Sarcasm:: Come on, a good orphan anvil picture is tough to come by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reber500 Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Storms FINALLY starting to fire in Nebraska, still some definitely still some potential, it's just lower than earlier.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Come on, a good orphan anvil picture is tough to come by. Oddly enough the NAM absolutely nailed the overall surface setup (relatively speaking) minus the fast ejection. It certainly performed much better than the ECMWF/GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reber500 Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Storms Well north of North Platte are rather small, yet the southern cell has some rotation on it... Just sayin'... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Storms FINALLY starting to fire in Nebraska, still some definitely still some potential, it's just lower than earlier.. Quite common for storms to form near dark as evening decoupling forces the nocturnal LLJ to form and focuses convergence above the surface. Happens all the time in the plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reber500 Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Quite common for storms to form near dark as evening decoupling forces the nocturnal LLJ to form and focuses convergence above the surface. Happens all the time in the plains. I've noticed that quite a bit... the LLJ always seems to kick-in at night, therefore typically causing storms to fire.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 I've noticed that quite a bit... the LLJ always seems to kick-in at night, therefore typically causing storms to fire.. The "nocturnal" LLJ occurs after dark for a distinct reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reber500 Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 The "nocturnal" LLJ occurs after dark for a distinct reason. Are you being sarcastic? Because you said "after dark" or is there an actual reason that it kicks in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Are you being sarcastic? Because you said "after dark" or is there an actual reason that it kicks in? http://www.theweatherprediction.com/severe/llj/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 These storms are displaying the instability out there. Pushing 50k feet at 50dbz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reber500 Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 These storms are displaying the instability out there. Pushing 50k feet at 50dbz. 50kft with 50dbz?? dang... Where do the storms top/shear off at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 00z NAM is out for tomorrow. It wants to fire convection across E KS and NW MO by 18z it looks like, which it has consistently had in todays runs. The 00z RAP wants to do the same thing. Instability is very high but wind shear pretty weak. (always have to watch out though considering how much instability is available) By 21z, the NAM wants to fire storms in S Central Kansas, and drops it SE, winds are a little bit more impressive in this area, with even higher cape values. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Perhaps we could get a Derecho... Not saying it's going to happen, but it's a possibility... Moving way to slow for a derecho. Derechos haul arse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reber500 Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Moving way to slow for a derecho. Derechos haul arse. I said that before it formed into a SQLN... I didn't figure it would be moving this slow... Definitely a big time Flash Flood/ Flood threat with this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 VALID 060251Z - 060415Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 252...253...CONTINUES. SUMMARY...A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. DISCUSSION...LATEST RAPID REFRESH INDICATES THAT INTENSIFICATION OF THE SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY 850 MB JET TO AROUND 40 KT HAS OCCURRED NEAR/NORTH OF MID MISSOURI VALLEY AREA. THIS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO STRENGTHENING LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA...WHERE VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALSO CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE. A GRADUAL CONSOLIDATION OF THIS ACTIVITY PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR...IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG CONVECTIVE LAYER SHEAR. HOWEVER ...WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR HAS GENERALLY CONFINED ACTIVITY TO AREAS GENERALLY WELL NORTH OF A FAIRLY SHARP SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE. POTENTIAL FOR THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF A MORE ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT REMAINS UNCLEAR. BUT...STRONGER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD AND EASTWARD...ROUGHLY ALONG THE 700 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE DEFINING THE NORTHERN EDGE OF STRONGER CAPPING...COINCIDING WITH THE GRADUAL VEERING THE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET...ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THROUGH 05-06Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 00z NAM is out for tomorrow. It wants to fire convection across E KS and NW MO by 18z it looks like, which it has consistently had in todays runs. The 00z RAP wants to do the same thing. Instability is very high but wind shear pretty weak. (always have to watch out though considering how much instability is available) By 21z, the NAM wants to fire storms in S Central Kansas, and drops it SE, winds are a little bit more impressive in this area, with even higher cape values. Looking at some of the forecast soundings across parts of KS/MO and they are quite impressive. Despite lack of shear soundings have a very classic inverted-v look so with the extreme instability in place any storms will certainly have potential to produce some pretty strong microbustst winds. Of course with such steep lapse rates and not too high freezing levels large hail will certainly be possible. Noticed an area of enhanced vertical shear too across KS so supercells would certainly be possible across central/eastern KS and perhaps the threat for a few tornadoes given enhanced helicity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 6, 2012 Author Share Posted May 6, 2012 Edited the description after continued looks at the long range. lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reber500 Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Looking at some of the forecast soundings across parts of KS/MO and they are quite impressive. Despite lack of shear soundings have a very classic inverted-v look so with the extreme instability in place any storms will certainly have potential to produce some pretty strong microbustst winds. Of course with such steep lapse rates and not too high freezing levels large hail will certainly be possible. Noticed an area of enhanced vertical shear too across KS so supercells would certainly be possible across central/eastern KS and perhaps the threat for a few tornadoes given enhanced helicity. Yeah, I was looking at the Hodographs for tomorrow around Topeka, and Emporia (just East-Central KS in general), and they are pretty nice looking... http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?sounding.x=497&sounding.y=352&prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2012&model_mm=05&model_dd=06&model_init_hh=00&fhour=18¶meter=CAPE&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false&sounding=y&sndclick=y Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reber500 Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Has anybody seen the CIN the RAP is forecasting tomorrow along the Cold Front... (I guess we can count out ANY development along the Front) http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=RAP&grid=255&model_yyyy=2012&model_mm=05&model_dd=06&model_init_hh=00&fhour=18¶meter=CIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Anyone going out tomorrow? We are heading towards Kirksville-Ottumwa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Yeah, I was looking at the Hodographs for tomorrow around Topeka, and Emporia (just East-Central KS in general), and they are pretty nice looking... http://www.twisterda...ng=y&sndclick=y The hodo's aren't bad looking, supportive of supercells but given how weak the shear is the threat for tornadoes probably isn't all too high and the skew-t's are more suggestive of downbursts/microbursts. Anyways there could be some pretty sick hailers tomorrow given those lapse rates/instability values, especially in any more discrete cells that take on supercell characteristics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 I'm thinking the best tornado threat tomorrow (albeit not too high) will be near the subforum boundary between C/W and GLOV...like around IL/eastern IA/southern WI. Nice veering with height but flow isn't very strong...I'd be a lot more concerned if it was a bit stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Well, unfortunately we are temporarily broken down east of Knoxville. Not completely sure what's wrong but the car is not driveable. Debating on waiting till Monday to tow it to a mechanic or just going ahead and towing it back to Asheville tomorrow and jumping in another's car for the trip. Either way, we can't chase tomorrow. Its a bummer, because KS into OK is starting to look promising... its that kind of year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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