Indystorm Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 What's producing the svr storms east of Cheyenne to Kimball, one of which is now tor warned? Is this new jet energy entering the system? Will it help trigger things eastward in the forecast area for storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 The one storm has a TOR in SW NE, and the Kimball storm is not too far away from one. Very large hail as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 5, 2012 Author Share Posted May 5, 2012 Upsloping supercells from the looks of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 Blue sky bust? Almost 7pm CDT and still no sign of initiation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 What's producing the svr storms east of Cheyenne to Kimball, one of which is now tor warned? Is this new jet energy entering the system? Will it help trigger things eastward in the forecast area for storms? Similar situation to the Palmer Divide in Colorado. Elevated heating source, don't need quite the dewpoints to provide the instability of lower elevations, and you have a natural cyclonic feature like the DCVZ. Not quite as prominent though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reber500 Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Blue sky bust? Almost 7pm CDT and still no sign of initiation. Perhaps storms could get going overnight? However, at that point I think the Strong Tornado Threat will drop, along with the overall Tornado threat... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lester Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 12 SW Kimball [Kimball Co, NE] trained spotter reports FUNNEL CLOUD at 05:40 PM MDT -- numerous funnel clouds reported with this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reber500 Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Don't forget tomorrow has SOME Potential too!! In OK/KS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Around 200 knots of storm top divergence on the dominant cell in southeast South Dakota. Not fighting the cap will do wonders for an updraft. Plenty of low level helicity up there, but very little in the way of low level instability. There is a nice meso, but getting it down to the ground will prove more difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 There has been wind with it, gusts to 65 and measured at 78 mph. But I think a sustained low level vortex will be difficult in that environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 There is definitely more upper support arriving, as you can see from the high clouds approaching from the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reber500 Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Storm east of Mitchell has some nice rotation on it, and also is starting to get a hook, although as OceanStWx said previously it will be difficult to get a Tornado in that environment with little to no Instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 There is definitely more upper support arriving, as you can see from the high clouds approaching from the west. Hopefully the show is about to start for everyone who made the drive out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Short wave a little slow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 The HRRR has done fairly well today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 The HRRR has done fairly well today. Except for all the convection that it developed in C NE that has yet to happen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Seems like bust after bust the past few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Except for all the convection that it developed in C NE that has yet to happen... Keyword is fairly...Obviously it hasn't been perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reber500 Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Seems like bust after bust the past few weeks. Maybe a quite early to mid May--thus far-- is a sign of big Late May/ June... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reber500 Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Derek Davis' cam on Chaser TV looks pretty cool... Edit: Definitely can see a lowering off in the distance. 2nd Edit: Now their moving so you can't anymore... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 I take it I should give up on the E Nebraska threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reber500 Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 I take it I should give up on the E Nebraska threat. Yepp. Blue Sky Bust... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reber500 Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 wow... Nice Storm/ Supercell Structure on Tea Storm Chasers stream... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Seems like bust after bust the past few weeks. Only two, and today (at least IMO) never really had that much potential anyway. The shortwave is still several hundred miles to the west; the risk area is smack dab under the apex of the ridge. It's quite similar to those biannual IA cap busts with the insane parameters near a WF under a ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Bust! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 The eternal optimist Reed Timmer: Meteorologist and Extreme Storm Chaser This is a huge gamble going north given very low-level stable air. But these storms could produce a tornado based on my fluid dynamics course and the ability for a mesocyclone to "dig" down thru the cap. Some please explain to me what he is talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 The Dom 2 live stream has sound now. It's pretty hilarious when they were playing "What type and strength of tornado are you?" http://live.tvnweather.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 The eternal optimist Reed Timmer: Meteorologist and Extreme Storm Chaser This is a huge gamble going north given very low-level stable air. But these storms could produce a tornado based on my fluid dynamics course and the ability for a mesocyclone to "dig" down thru the cap. Some please explain to me what he is talking about? There are fluid dynamic processes owing largely to low-level shear that can allow tornadoes to occur in stable low-level conditions (shear basically acting as low-level instability would). It's something that only have an elementary grasp on myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Click on the second link under the second session: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lot/?n=glomw_presentations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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