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May 4th - 16th Severe Weather Thread


andyhb

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What's producing the svr storms east of Cheyenne to Kimball, one of which is now tor warned? Is this new jet energy entering the system? Will it help trigger things eastward in the forecast area for storms?

Similar situation to the Palmer Divide in Colorado. Elevated heating source, don't need quite the dewpoints to provide the instability of lower elevations, and you have a natural cyclonic feature like the DCVZ. Not quite as prominent though.

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Blue sky bust?

Almost 7pm CDT and still no sign of initiation.

Perhaps storms could get going overnight? However, at that point I think the Strong Tornado Threat will drop, along with the overall Tornado threat...

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Around 200 knots of storm top divergence on the dominant cell in southeast South Dakota. Not fighting the cap will do wonders for an updraft.

Plenty of low level helicity up there, but very little in the way of low level instability. There is a nice meso, but getting it down to the ground will prove more difficult.

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Storm east of Mitchell has some nice rotation on it, and also is starting to get a hook, although as OceanStWx said previously it will be difficult to get a Tornado in that environment with little to no Instability.

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Seems like bust after bust the past few weeks.

Only two, and today (at least IMO) never really had that much potential anyway. The shortwave is still several hundred miles to the west; the risk area is smack dab under the apex of the ridge. It's quite similar to those biannual IA cap busts with the insane parameters near a WF under a ridge.

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The eternal optimist :lol:

Reed Timmer: Meteorologist and Extreme Storm Chaser

This is a huge gamble going north given very low-level stable air. But these storms could produce a tornado based on my fluid dynamics course and the ability for a mesocyclone to "dig" down thru the cap.

Some please explain to me what he is talking about?

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The eternal optimist :lol:

Reed Timmer: Meteorologist and Extreme Storm Chaser

This is a huge gamble going north given very low-level stable air. But these storms could produce a tornado based on my fluid dynamics course and the ability for a mesocyclone to "dig" down thru the cap.

Some please explain to me what he is talking about?

There are fluid dynamic processes owing largely to low-level shear that can allow tornadoes to occur in stable low-level conditions (shear basically acting as low-level instability would). It's something that only have an elementary grasp on myself.

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