MnWeatherman Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 convective field in ne Nebraska is decaying... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 Well I am heading out soon I believe. Going with a point near BBW, maybe a tick east. I am just looking for some good supercell viewing...MLLCLs on the other side of the boundary will prolly not allow for any tornadoes. I don't care though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 convective field in ne Nebraska is decaying... Cu field is building again east of O'Neill. Developing on the nose of the theta-e ridge and in an area of strong moisture convergence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 Cu field is building again east of O'Neill. Developing on the nose of the theta-e ridge and in an area of strong moisture convergence. was just noticing that as well, new cu trying to get going well southwest from LBF-MCK-east of GLD possibly in reponse to those high clouds streaking northeast from the srn plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 was just noticing that as well, new cu trying to get going well southwest from LBF-MCK-east of GLD possibly in reponse to those high clouds streaking northeast from the srn plains. Nice theta-e pool down towards LBF, as well as moisture convergence. The latest HRRR wants to initiate there first, and the current conditions support that. The real nose of the warmth aloft is just east of there, so it's possible the cap is weaker there than say Ord. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 Effective sig tor up to 9 and craven sig svr up to 110 on border of ne Nebraska and se S.D. If and when this goes there will be fireworks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 Is it me or there two gravity waves across northern NE/southern SD, one pushing east and other west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 I'm sitting under the CU field E of O'Neill right now. There have been some decent looking bursts of shallow convection, but nothing seems to be able to get past the ~800-700 mb layer. Most of the models (with the exception of HRRR) seem to initiate here or just slightly NW of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reber500 Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 Uh oh... I just saw that on the Mesoanalysis Page... When the Supercells get going later I would bet there is going to be a Few Strong Tornadoes... Although they may not necessarily hit a town... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reber500 Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 Watching the CU Field develop in Northeast NE on Reed Timmers stream... http://live.tvnweather.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reber500 Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 Pretty High Supercell Composite... http://spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=13&parm=stpc&underlay=1# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 Well Thompson hits the question marks well in his discussion... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 About 6500 joules of SBCAPE in the new Tornado watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 DISCUSSION...STRONG SURFACE HEATING/DEEP MIXING IN THE WARM SECTOR HAS REDUCED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS NEB...AND VISIBLE IMAGERY IS BEGINNING TO SHOW DEEPENING CUMULUS ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT FROM SE OF LBF TO SW OF YKN. THE SITUATION IS COMPLICATED BY LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE WARM SECTOR AND A QUICK TRANSITION TO STRONGER SHEAR/COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FRONT...LEAVING ONLY A NARROW CORRIDOR WITH SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELL/TORNADO POTENTIAL. STILL...THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT APPEARS TO BE ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO EXPECTED STORM MOTION...SO ANY STORMS THAT FORM ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SURFACE FRONT COULD REMAIN IN THE NARROW FAVORABLE CORRIDOR LONG ENOUGH TO BE A TORNADO THREAT. IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO RISK...VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUSTAINED STORMS THROUGH LATE EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 ML-LFC is really marginal across NE and LCL's are not that great as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reber500 Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 CU field looks like is diminishing again. in Northeastern NE but that CU Field from NW KS, to CTRL NB looks interesting... Considering it's developing farther north east.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 Storm going up south of North Platte. Initial motion will want to take it north of the boundary, but once supercellular it will become more parallel to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 Storm going up south of North Platte. Initial motion will want to take it north of the boundary, but once supercellular it will want to become more parallel to it. If this succeeds in breaking the cap this may indeed be the beginning of the show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 The storm ongoing in South Dakota is dropping some very large hail. Nearly 70 dBZ to 38kft from the KUEX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 Surprising that the initial warning was only for quarter size hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 Very skinny updraft south of North Platte based off visible satellite, doesn't give me much hope that it holds off entrainment and continues to strengthen. But if we continue to prime the atmosphere something will eventually go off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 DP's have mixed out around the 10% risk area, not a good sign. At least in that general vicinity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 5, 2012 Author Share Posted May 5, 2012 Nice sup in SE Wyoming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reber500 Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 It appears the Storm near North Platte failed to break the cap, but new storm forming closer to Broken Arrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 DP's have mixed out around the 10% risk area, not a good sign. At least in that general vicinity. Yeah, 90/53 at Albion. Not what you like to see for tornado development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reber500 Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 DP's have mixed out around the 10% risk area, not a good sign. At least in that general vicinity. DP's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 5, 2012 Author Share Posted May 5, 2012 Dewpoints... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reber500 Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 Dewpoints... Never seen anybody use DP for DewPoint sorry... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 5, 2012 Author Share Posted May 5, 2012 Never seen anybody use DP for DewPoint sorry... No problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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