Ian Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 euro ensemble mean quite different than the op. broad trough in the west next week mid to late week. not sure on this weekend -- doesnt look super. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Famous TV star Reed Timmer likes Saturday, and I quote "the pattern is going to get crazy". I think I just vomited a little... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Famous TV star Reed Timmer likes Saturday, and I quote "the pattern is going to get crazy". Really? time to get real, where is the sheer? All post frontal passage IMO. Strong winds could be seen if a MCS should develop over MN Sat night. This is way to early, so take this with a big grain of salt. Based on what I'm seeing to date from the models runs, here is what I think the first day one outlook will look for the Upper Mississippi Valley for Saturday. Tornado 2%, Hail 5%, wind 15% (could go to 30%), sheer values are so pathetic that I don't think we will see a hatched area for winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 16, 2012 Author Share Posted May 16, 2012 *Shear... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Really? time to get real, where is the sheer? All post frontal passage IMO. Strong winds could be seen if a MCS should develop over MN Sat night. This is way to early, so take this with a big grain of salt. Based on what I'm seeing to date from the models runs, here is what I think the first day one outlook will look for the Upper Mississippi Valley for Saturday. Tornado 2%, Hail 5%, wind 15% (could go to 30%), sheer values are so pathetic that I don't think we will see a hatched area for winds. It's funny on Twitter to watch people comment on the weekend potential. You can tell the chasers who are bored really easily. Sat looks like it has the most potential and it's probably not a ton tornadowise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Not really seeing anything to get real exited about this weekend. However, later next week looks more interesting. I know its way too far ahead, but it is something to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reber500 Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Really? time to get real, where is the sheer? All post frontal passage IMO. Strong winds could be seen if a MCS should develop over MN Sat night. This is way to early, so take this with a big grain of salt. Based on what I'm seeing to date from the models runs, here is what I think the first day one outlook will look for the Upper Mississippi Valley for Saturday. Tornado 2%, Hail 5%, wind 15% (could go to 30%), sheer values are so pathetic that I don't think we will see a hatched area for winds. *Shear... Oh, and btw, this is 7+ Days out so it's pretty difficult in general to guess where the best shear will be... But when you look at all the winds (500mb, 200mb, etc...) They look pretty impressive... Though I do agree that a lot of the winds especially the strongest appear to be Post-Frontal... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 16, 2012 Author Share Posted May 16, 2012 *Shear... Oh, and btw, this is 7+ Days out so it's pretty difficult in general to guess where the best shear will be... But when you look at all the winds (500mb, 200mb, etc...) They look pretty impressive... Though I do agree that a lot of the winds especially the strongest appear to be Post-Frontal... Pretty sure he is talking about this weekend's threat... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reber500 Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Pretty sure he is talking about this weekend's threat... Oh... I thought he was talking about next week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 16, 2012 Author Share Posted May 16, 2012 00z GFS is stringing the energy out in the west before a quality ejection can take place That said: I) There is a ton of juice waiting to be advected north prior to it (This is Late May, after all). II) Most of the GFS ensemble members do not support the OP's idea. And last but not least... III) This is still 7+ days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 16, 2012 Author Share Posted May 16, 2012 As you can see, the OP is quite the outlier here: The 00z Euro sets up a very broad upper trough across the west with multiple upper level shortwaves/impulses between 144 hrs and the end of the run. The GGEM, on the other hand, is a large meridional trough with a similar structure to the May 22nd/23rd, 2008 system (Windsor/Quinter). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Tornado Hunt is resuming next week! // BREAKING WEATHER NEWS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Really? time to get real, where is the sheer? All post frontal passage IMO. Strong winds could be seen if a MCS should develop over MN Sat night. This is way to early, so take this with a big grain of salt. Based on what I'm seeing to date from the models runs, here is what I think the first day one outlook will look for the Upper Mississippi Valley for Saturday. Tornado 2%, Hail 5%, wind 15% (could go to 30%), sheer values are so pathetic that I don't think we will see a hatched area for winds. Thanks for the spelling correction, and yes I was talking about this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Hmmm....I find this interesting. From the 16/0z run, and 16/06z run seems to keep it, lets see what happens with subsequent runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 i would sell a kidney for the 12z gfs to verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 16, 2012 Author Share Posted May 16, 2012 i would sell a kidney for the 12z gfs to verify In a word, wow....not only that, but that upler/mid level jet streak coming ashore is crazy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 In a word, wow....not only that, but that upler/mid level jet streak coming ashore is crazy... yeah.. and it just keeps on going. even the end of the run would imply more to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 i would sell a kidney for the 12z gfs to verify I'll throw one in as well if necessary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 I'll throw one in as well if necessary nice.. if we get a collection of 'em it should be good. 12z EURO likes the idea of a train of troughs at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 nice.. if we get a collection of 'em it should be good. 12z EURO likes the idea of a train of troughs at the end of the run. Earo shows a strong juicy LLJ across the plains and upper midwest day 7-10 . Looks like a few of moderate+ risk days in there. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF0.5_12z/ecmwfloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 There is definitely going to be an uptick in severe next week and a significant pattern shift across the Pac/CONUS. If someone wants to start a new thread, by all means do it. We have worn this thread out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Earo shows a strong juicy LLJ across the plains and upper midwest day 7-10 . Looks like a few of moderate+ risk days in there. http://www.meteo.psu.../ecmwfloop.html im getting all tingly.. as long as it holds off till we can get out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Can't resist the urge to ask this... are current model sets in the long range good or bad for Northeast Kansas? Your Canadian friend alone in a foreign country, foster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 16, 2012 Author Share Posted May 16, 2012 There is definitely going to be an uptick in severe next week and a significant pattern shift across the Pac/CONUS. If someone wants to start a new thread, by all means do it. We have worn this thread out. Done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 I know this has been moved to a new thread, but I wanted to post this here so peep's get the joke. Attn Ian, the good news is that your wallet is fatter, the bad news is your down to one kidney... All the ingredients are there, the one thing that I wish were better was 0-6km shear, it seems marginal at around 35-40 knots, but given every thing else, this could be a high cape low shear event, and surprise some people. I work the next 5 days so here is a link to where I get this at. http://www.wxcaster.com/experimental_products.htm To see other parameters like VGP, 0-3km cape,0-1 EHI, and a boat load of other parameters look at this page http://wxcaster.com/conus_0012_us_models.htm all of these are courtesy of Earl Barkers site...which I use often. http://wxcaster.com/models_main.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 ^ All is going according to plan... what we'll get are crappy, nontornadic storms right over the place I was hoping to view the eclipse from (Wichita Mtns)... after 2 weeks straight of no convection, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 ^ All is going according to plan... what we'll get are crappy, nontornadic storms right over the place I was hoping to view the eclipse from (Wichita Mtns)... after 2 weeks straight of no convection, of course. well at least you wont have an outbreak happen while you're on a plane to get in a car to go to the plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reber500 Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 ^ All is going according to plan... what we'll get are crappy, nontornadic storms right over the place I was hoping to view the eclipse from (Wichita Mtns)... after 2 weeks straight of no convection, of course. Are you saying you'd rather see an eclipse over a few Robust Thundershowers?!?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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