tmagan Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 Nice MCV with the thunderstorm complex in northern Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 Finally, I was able to get my south TX footage up from 5/10/2012! Enjoy! Here was a taste of the hail that hit us: A fun pic: A link to the entire album: Texas Chase - 5/10/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 GFS/EURO might be coming together on a trough by d10 or so. GFS is a bit fast for my liking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 not to dig on anyone chasing today but you know it's a rough year when people are willing to go into that area to chase. no coverage and questionable as to safety. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 not to dig on anyone chasing today but you know it's a rough year when people are willing to go into that area to chase. no coverage and questionable as to safety. Given the activity expected the next week I don't blame anyone for taking what is available...even out in the middle of nowhere west TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 Given the activity expected the next week I don't blame anyone for taking what is available...even out in the middle of nowhere west TX. true... i mean the likelihood of trouble is probably low but it's kind of a shady area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek30 Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 GFS looks good for strong to severe storms in MB/ND/MN late Friday and Saturday. I have a good feeling about the season up here. I could see there being some good events later this month and into June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 12z EURO looks pretty good at the end of the run again. I think it would probably lead to some sort of outbreak the 24th+ if it went that far. Late week/weekend also seems to have increasing potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 12z EURO looks pretty good at the end of the run again. I think it would probably lead to some sort of outbreak the 24th+ if it went that far. Late week/weekend also seems to have increasing potential. Wow, no kidding... I never thought we'd see a run showing a big wrn trough before Memorial Day. This run actually reminds me a bit of the ones around the 11-12th in May 2008. Pattern looked straight-up awful into the forseeable future, then the EC suddenly started showing big, broad wrn troughing in the D8-10 range, while the GFS resisted until it was inside of a week. People in Windsor, Quinter and Parkersburg can tell you which solution won out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 Wow, no kidding... I never thought we'd see a run showing a big wrn trough before Memorial Day. This run actually reminds me a bit of the ones around the 11-12th in May 2008. Pattern looked straight-up awful into the forseeable future, then the EC suddenly started showing big, broad wrn troughing in the D8-10 range, while the GFS resisted until it was inside of a week. People in Windsor, Quinter and Parkersburg can tell you which solution won out. ensemble mean looks fairly similar (kinda washed out comparitively but usually the case i guess). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 Just had a look myself. Trying not to get too hopeful, but it certainly is a sight for sore eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 14, 2012 Author Share Posted May 14, 2012 Wow, no kidding... I never thought we'd see a run showing a big wrn trough before Memorial Day. This run actually reminds me a bit of the ones around the 11-12th in May 2008. Pattern looked straight-up awful into the forseeable future, then the EC suddenly started showing big, broad wrn troughing in the D8-10 range, while the GFS resisted until it was inside of a week. People in Windsor, Quinter and Parkersburg can tell you which solution won out. Have to agree there, that is an impressive looking long wave taking shape... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 18z GFS has a big low same general timeframe.. perhaps a little faster than the euro still. Since I'm silly enough to keep looking further downstream, the pattern looks ripe down the line on the op even if fantasy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 14, 2012 Author Share Posted May 14, 2012 The 12z GFS ensembles also look pretty good around the same time frame (finally some hope perhaps). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reber500 Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 Have to agree there, that is an impressive looking long wave taking shape... Does it have it staying together? When it reaches the Plains/ Northern-Plains... What portion of the Plains does it have affecting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 14, 2012 Author Share Posted May 14, 2012 It's at the end of the run so I'm not sure, this 10 days out too so I wouldn't take it too seriously (to the point where we specify which portion of the country it could affect). The main thing is that there is a signal there and it is across the spectrum of models for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reber500 Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 I will say, on the 18z GFS for 228-252 it's not really showing any significant moisture at ALL where the best winds are... Therefore no instability, granted it's 8+ days out and the models nearly never really verify past 9 days... And that it is only the GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Uh...what are you talking about ^^ There is substantial moisture GFS verbatim. 4000 j/kg of CAPE is also substantial...ridiculous for the Northern Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 I will say, on the 18z GFS for 228-252 it's not really showing any significant moisture at ALL where the best winds are... Therefore no instability, granted it's 8+ days out and the models nearly never really verify past 9 days... And that it is only the GFS... looks like it would be sufficient as is particularly for eastern plains/upper midwest perhaps southern canada on the 24th. one thing you can see plainly is how the gfs likely mishandles the trough after truncation. so if it's real at least would not get into timing too much yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 15, 2012 Author Share Posted May 15, 2012 Uh...what are you talking about ^^ There is substantial moisture GFS verbatim. 4000 j/kg of CAPE is also substantial...ridiculous for the Northern Plains. What I was going to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 looks like it would be sufficient as is particularly for eastern plains/upper midwest perhaps southern canada on the 24th. one thing you can see plainly is how the gfs likely mishandles the trough after truncation. so if it's real at least would not get into timing too much yet. It looks fine to me after truncation. We are getting way ahead of ourselves though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 It looks fine to me after truncation. We are getting way ahead of ourselves though. seems like it unravels the trough faster than it should based on the prior run of panels but maybe not meaningful at all. and yeah.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Looking at Saturday night, severe storms IMO are possible from sw NE up to Duluth MN, because of week sheer values above 850mb I don't think a large hail event is in the mix, the greatest threat will be winds as the cold front comes in, some storms could see winds above the 58mph threshold. The GFS is having some problems with this cold front, I am currently waiting until this system gets into the UKMET's wheelhouse, to see if it concurs with the Gem and ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 15, 2012 Author Share Posted May 15, 2012 00z GFS holds serve, although it does look a little messy after the truncation/res change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 SPC has changed their day 4-8 outlook from "potential too low" to "predictability to low". Hopefully that means we are getting into a more favorable pattern that will stick around for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 GFS may be over doing moisture for this weekend in the Upper Midwest; however, I believe enough will be there. Normally the Gulf is not wide open with a surface ridge back in the Tennessee Valley, based on pattern recognition. Digging deeper though, one can see the South was never scoured out by the last system. Plenty of moisture is in place to return. Texas dews are a little low today as I type, but a southeast fetch will quickly fix that issue and allow ample time for moisture to work up to Minnesota. This time of year 3 days is an eternity. I have no dog in this hunt, but believe a chasable event will unfold. Next week it appears a repeat will be in the cards. Memorial Day climatology almost always delivers. Continued progressive flow, as opposed to a death ridge, is forecast. Not much skill beyond that so far out. However one can observe a fairly active flow off the Pacific into the Pac NW forecast at that time. Downstream short waves should result in the Plains or northern Plains. Though we are in a dull patch at the moment, looks like May action is far from over. Perhaps not a big outbreak in the cards, but I see a couple multi-day local chase setups the next two weeks. Location(s) next week TBD. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 figured it would go from worry of nothing to worry of too soon (if we drive nonstop might get out by 24th). pattern looks solid tho.. 6z gfs giant northeast vortex aside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Famous TV star Reed Timmer likes Saturday, and I quote "the pattern is going to get crazy". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Famous TV star Reed Timmer likes Saturday, and I quote "the pattern is going to get crazy". At least he didn't call it a "tornado outbreak"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 of course the op euro jumps ship at 12z. for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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