May 4th - 16th Severe Weather Thread

[ZackH]

All I need is one good day, and unfortunately Sunday looks like the best bet as of now... It looks like later in the week there could be some potential in southern/eastern TX.... but its nothing to write home about.

Yes, I am a bit more bullish when it comes to the potential than I normally would be... most likely because I'll be out there. I'm upset I can't get out Saturday, but I am graduating. Funny paradox... I can't chase Saturday because I'm graduating as a meteorologist...

[andyhb]

As Brett mentioned, this pattern (specifically this ridge that keeps shunting the primary storm track north of the border) really needs to go...

Also, congrats on the degree.

[ZackH]

As Brett mentioned, this pattern (specifically this ridge that keeps shunting the primary storm track north of the border) really needs to go...

Also, congrats on the degree.

Thanks! I'm so excited about it, but the excitement is a bit tempered when my celebration chase week+ is falling apart!

[David Reimer]

I'll be chasing in western North Texas tomorrow afternoon and likely once again on Saturday. I don't see much of a tornado threat down here either days, but with a few OFBs laying around along with the extreme instability amounts, we may end up getting a surprise or two. I was present for one such surprise on June 12, 2009 in Palo Pinto County, TX. Good luck to those chasing in the Northern Plains, but I gotta stick at home and play with the Texas storms, because everything is bigger in Texas

That and Kansas sucks...

[baroclinic_instability]

Yeah LCL's may be abit high, but there would be a possible window for tor potential across NC Nebraska later. I guess when I mentioned outbreak I meant an outbreak of severe weather. Still some stark differences in the GFS/ECMWF and the NAM...which has an odd backdoor front pushing through Friday evening...and really keeps the severe threat to NC Nebraska...without all the upslope supercell activity like the GFS/ECMWF. BTW I am doing the forecast as we speak....this is going to be a tough one. 00z GFS/NAM aren't making it any easier.

[andyhb]

This seems like the kind of setup where any underestimation of a given parameter (LCLs, sfc temps, LLJ strength, etc.) could end up turning it much more substantial, or less so. Regardless on the strength of the LLJ, the directional component to wind profiles looks very well defined.

[andyhb]

And the 00z GFS is even worse with the S Plains threat next week, yikes...

[wxsniss]

And the 00z GFS is even worse with the S Plains threat next week, yikes...

...and high theta-e advecting up from the Gulf is significantly diminished after Monday.

This is harsh. We didn't have this kind of persistent ridging in the West much of the Winter.

I arrive in OKC Saturday. After the potential in eastern KS Sunday, it's looking right now like a week of site-seeing in Oklahoma.

Unless globals are wrong.

[andyhb]

Snippet from new Day 2 and graphic:

...CENTRAL PLAINS...IA...ADJOINING MO VALLEY REGION...

AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD POOL NE OF SFC LOW DURING AFTERNOON.

ALTHOUGH EML-RELATED CINH WILL SUPPRESS DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH OF

AFTERNOON...COMBINATION OF RICH LOW-LEVEL THETAE IN CORRIDOR E-NE OF

SFC LOW AND NEAR WARM FRONT WILL SUPPORT STG TO EXTREME

BUOYANCY...WITH MLCAPE REACHING NEAR 5000 J/KG IN SOME LOCALES.

OVERLAID ON SOME OF THIS BUOYANCY WILL BE STG VEERING OF WINDS WITH

HEIGHT...CONTRIBUTING TO ENHANCED SRH INVOF LOW AND QUASISTATIONARY

FRONT. ANY TSTMS THAT CAN DEVELOP IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL DO SO

EXPLOSIVELY...WITH RAPID GROWTH TO SVR/SUPERCELLULAR LEVELS.

ADDITIONAL CONVECTION SHOULD FORM DURING EVENING...WITH UPSCALE

GROWTH INTO MCS POSSIBLE. EARLY STAGES OF LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY

EVENING CONVECTION WILL OFFER RISK OF VERY LARGE/DAMAGING

HAIL...TORNADOES AND SVR DOWNDRAFTS. THREAT MAY TRANSITION MORE

DOMINANTLY TO DAMAGING WIND WITH TIME AS COLD POOL DEVELOPS.

RELATIVE MIN IN TSTM/SVR POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ALONG DRYLINE BETWEEN

CENTRAL-PLAINS LOW AND THIS AREA...WHERE PROBABILITY IS VERY LOW

THAT DIABATIC SFC HEATING AND DRYLINE CONVERGENCE WILL OVERCOME CINH

AND BREACH EML.

[Buckeye05]

I think everyone is kinda grasping at straws at this point. Keep in mind how bleak May of last was until the late May outbreak sequence started up. We still got the rest of May and June.

[ZackH]

I think everyone is kinda grasping at straws at this point. Keep in mind how bleak May of last was until the late May outbreak sequence started up. We still got the rest of May and June.

Problem is, May 7th-May 21 last year wasn't dead like the pattern is this year. There were 3-4 significant separate systems through that 2 week period... the thing about last year was that big potential systems had high bust statistics until the day of Joplin (and even then, besides Joplin, the rest of the day was fairly unimpressive). We had two moderate busts and a slight somewhere in the Plains almost every single day. This coming week+, we are going to have a hard time even getting a slight anywhere in the Plains besides KS/MO on Sunday and possibly deep south TX later in the week. I did see one possibility of some SD/ND stuff later in the week, also... but looks marginal at best at the moment.

[reber500]

Maybe a quite First half of May, or all of May is a precursor to an active June/ July? Not saying it's going to happen, but it's a possibility...

[Ian]

Problem is, May 7th-May 21 last year wasn't dead like the pattern is this year. There were 3-4 significant separate systems through that 2 week period... the thing about last year was that big potential systems had high bust statistics until the day of Joplin (and even then, besides Joplin, the rest of the day was fairly unimpressive). We had two moderate busts and a slight somewhere in the Plains almost every single day. This coming week+, we are going to have a hard time even getting a slight anywhere in the Plains besides KS/MO on Sunday and possibly deep south TX later in the week. I did see one possibility of some SD/ND stuff later in the week, also... but looks marginal at best at the moment.

uhh, it was pretty dead until the 21st or so. unless you count mod risks that totally fail. blue sky busts are fun though. after being out in early may last yr figured late may into june was worth a shot this time around.

[andyhb]

NAM continues to indicate a very intense convective signature in northeast NE tomorrow, in the region of some of the best parameters in the area.

[Chinook]

This is a side note. The RUC seems to be still operating at the NCEP official site, and COD. The RAP is now featured on Twisterdata. Looks like Twisterdata is the first to switch over to the RAP. I wonder why NCEP web site isn't featuring the RAP, now that this advertised switchover happened.

As for the forecast: I am seeing the "tornado ingredients" plot show something in South Dakota today and tomorrow.

[ZackH]

uhh, it was pretty dead until the 21st or so. unless you count mod risks that totally fail. blue sky busts are fun though. after being out in early may last yr figured late may into june was worth a shot this time around.

I think you misunderstood me. Yes, it was fairly dead results wise... I never said it wasn't and I completely agree with you, but it wasn't supposed to be dead like it is this week and what the models are showing through mid month. My point was that is wasn't suppose to be dead last year and the synoptic pattern at the time wasn't showing it like it is this year. I was out from the 7th-21st and I remember specifically 2 MOD busts (10% hatched tornado and a 15% hatched tornado if I remember correctly). One had morning convection mess it up and the other had convection start too early and it turned into a congealed convective mess. The 3rd MOD was the Joplin day. Those two earlier MOD busts, however, had synoptically favorable environments and patterns for regional outbreaks with deep troughs... the mesoscale details just didn't work out. On top of that, almost every day (with the exception of about 3 days in between troughs) saw a slight risk somewhere in the Plains... most of those were conditional and ended up being blue sky busts, like you said... but the threat was still there. The pattern wasn't terrible, the small details just didn't work out.

The pattern now, however, shows very little potential at all for even marginal slight risks in the Plains in the coming week (with the exception of Sunday, which is marginal in its own right shear wise). There are some signals for deep southern TX or maybe even a SD/ND threat later in the week/weekend, but its way too soon to see if that will materialize. After Sunday, its going to be tough to get anything going north of central TX for a while. The pattern this May looks 1000 times worse than it did last year as of now, IMO.

[brettjrob]

I agree with Zach on this one. Last year, mid-May was chock full of disappointments and busts. This year, it looks like there won't be many last-minute disappointments, because the synoptic pattern just plain sucks. After looping through the ECMWF and GFS this morning, I can only reemphasize how 2009-esque it looks for the next 10-14 days.

As a side note about last year... it seemed like a switch was flipped on May 21. After absolutely nothing going right all year to that point in the Plains, we suddenly got multiple photogenic tornadic supercells on a very marginal dryline day (Sulphur, Ada, Reading/Topeka). The next few days are history.

[ZackH]

I agree with Zach on this one. Last year, mid-May was chock full of disappointments and busts. This year, it looks like there won't be many last-minute disappointments, because the synoptic pattern just plain sucks. After looping through the ECMWF and GFS this morning, I can only reemphasize how 2009-esque it looks for the next 10-14 days.

As a side note about last year... it seemed like a switch was flipped on May 21. After absolutely nothing going right all year to that point in the Plains, we suddenly got multiple photogenic tornadic supercells on a very marginal dryline day (Sulphur, Ada, Reading/Topeka). The next few days are history.

May 21st was a wonderful surprise. We watched the Topeka cell from a baby cumulus and followed it until it died. The structure was incredible and we also got the brief EF0. Thursday looks like a possible marginal day at the moment in the Dakotas and Thurs-Fri look like possible marginal days in southern TX... otherwise... blech.

[baroclinic_instability]

ZackH...University of ND for grad school?

I just saw your sig. Congrats big time...my alma mater. You choose an awesome program.

[baroclinic_instability]

As for the ongoing discussion on May 2009, I don't think it looks nearly as awful as that year was. It is hard to beat that death ridge in terms of suppression.

[Thundersnow12]

As for the ongoing discussion on May 2009, I don't think it looks nearly as awful as that year was. It is hard to beat that death ridge in terms of suppression.

I sure hope not, We leave the 11th.

[ZackH]

ZackH...University of ND for grad school?

I just saw your sig. Congrats big time...my alma mater. You choose an awesome program.

Thanks! I'm pretty excited to get up there even though my fiance is a bit scared of the cold. It was down to the the University of Alabama Huntsville and UND... but UND gave me the better deal. From all of the professors I've talked with and some of the grad students, I feel like I will love it there. I am also excited about the late summer gorgeous Dakota supercells when not much is going on class wise. When did you attend?

[Ian]

I think you misunderstood me. Yes, it was fairly dead results wise... I never said it wasn't and I completely agree with you, but it wasn't supposed to be dead like it is this week and what the models are showing through mid month. My point was that is wasn't suppose to be dead last year and the synoptic pattern at the time wasn't showing it like it is this year. I was out from the 7th-21st and I remember specifically 2 MOD busts (10% hatched tornado and a 15% hatched tornado if I remember correctly). One had morning convection mess it up and the other had convection start too early and it turned into a congealed convective mess. The 3rd MOD was the Joplin day. Those two earlier MOD busts, however, had synoptically favorable environments and patterns for regional outbreaks with deep troughs... the mesoscale details just didn't work out. On top of that, almost every day (with the exception of about 3 days in between troughs) saw a slight risk somewhere in the Plains... most of those were conditional and ended up being blue sky busts, like you said... but the threat was still there. The pattern wasn't terrible, the small details just didn't work out.

The pattern now, however, shows very little potential at all for even marginal slight risks in the Plains in the coming week (with the exception of Sunday, which is marginal in its own right shear wise). There are some signals for deep southern TX or maybe even a SD/ND threat later in the week/weekend, but its way too soon to see if that will materialize. After Sunday, its going to be tough to get anything going north of central TX for a while. The pattern this May looks 1000 times worse than it did last year as of now, IMO.

i guess during your timeframe it was a smidge better. we were out from the 1st through the 12th (gave up after the KS bust on the 11th). the whole first week was awful... shoot by day 5 we drove the whole day to catch high-based isolated svr storms near abilene to get some fix. after that the pattern was slightly better but there was pretty weak return flow of moisture. i know there were a number of people dismissing the 11th beforehand as problematic despite the decent 500 flow.

[andyhb]

Thanks! I'm pretty excited to get up there even though my fiance is a bit scared of the cold. It was down to the the University of Alabama Huntsville and UND... but UND gave me the better deal. From all of the professors I've talked with and some of the grad students, I feel like I will love it there. I am also excited about the late summer gorgeous Dakota supercells when not much is going on class wise. When did you attend?

You'll have your red-tagger status eventually I assume as well.

[baroclinic_instability]

Thanks! I'm pretty excited to get up there even though my fiance is a bit scared of the cold. It was down to the the University of Alabama Huntsville and UND... but UND gave me the better deal. From all of the professors I've talked with and some of the grad students, I feel like I will love it there. I am also excited about the late summer gorgeous Dakota supercells when not much is going on class wise. When did you attend?

I graduated May 07.

It is cold, but then I don't mind cold at all. They get some really fun weather up there for those who are not from there. Some of the best blizzards in the US, and a ton of neat types of extratropical cyclogenesis along the mid winter polar front. Severe in summer is very challenging...one of the harder areas to forecast DMC in my mind...every event always has major question marks.

The program is awesome, and 60-80 % UND graduates get jobs in met for a reason. A dedicated staff and awesome research programs. I am indebted to UND. Dr. Askelson is the man up there. Talk to Cmichweather from the boards. He just got his M.S. in At Sci there and is now at NASA doing programming/research.

Who is your advisor?

[Chinook]

The SPC did a mesoscale discussion for north Nebraska/south South Dakota. Watch will be issued soon.

I looked at the NAM for tomorrow-- 6000 CAPE in Missouri. Wow.

[MNstorms]

The SPC did a mesoscale discussion for north Nebraska/south South Dakota. Watch will be issued soon.

Watch issued.

[Ian]

the gfs does look pretty horrific overall. stupid blocking patterns. tho i guess i can't complain yet... still about 5 days till 384 gets to my timeframe.

[baroclinic_instability]

Here is the AFD/forecast I did for today through next week. Feel free to bash it, I was furiously trying to finish it and get the forecast out. It was my first full forecast shift. It stunk if you ask me. But I am glad the general forecaster let me do it all...I needed the practice. And this is after doing grids in private weather for a few years. I still felt rusty.

FXUS63 KLBF 040938 CCA

AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE

400 AM CDT FRI MAY 4 2012

.DISCUSSION...

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS

POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA TODAY

AND SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A POWERFUL COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ACROSS

PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND

EVENING.

TODAY...

WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN COLORADO...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS

ADVECTING INTO SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. DEWPOINTS IN THE

UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S WERE OBSERVED IN THESE AREAS AND WITH LIGHT

WINDS AND DRY AIR ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER DENSE FOG HAD

DEVELOPED. AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWEST INTO THE

AREA...ANTICIPATE THIS FOG TO STICK AROUND THE AREA THROUGH MID

MORNING WHEN HEATING WILL WARM THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ALLOW FOR THE

FOG TO MIX OUT. AS VISIBILITIES OF A QUARTER MILE OR LESS HAVE BEEN

OBSERVED ALREADY IN MANY PARTS OF THE AREA...ISSUED A DENSE FOG

ADVISORY FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

A SHALLOW TROPOPAUSE UNDULATION CAN BE SEEN ON 06Z WATER VAPOR

IMAGERY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS FEATURE WILL RAPIDLY

TRANSLATE FROM WESTERN MONTANA THIS MORNING INTO THE NORTHERN

PLAINS. THIS WILL SUPPORT A PLUME OF LOW/MID LEVEL WARM AIR

ADVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH

THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK SURFACE LOW/INVERTED SURFACE TROF AXIS WILL

FORM ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WITH A

DRYLINE MIXING EASTWARD TO AROUND HIGHWAY 61 BY THE AFTERNOON.

MLCAPE WILL RANGE FROM 2000-2500 J/KG BY 18 TO 21Z. WHILE MID LEVEL

500 HPA FLOW WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK...LESS THAN 45

KNOTS...SOUTHERLY FLOW VEERING AROUND TO SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT WILL

SUPPORT EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR OF 35-45 KTS...SUPPORTIVE OF

SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE ALONG A BACKDOOR

COLD FRONT NEAR THE SD/NE BORDER AROUND CHERRY/BROWN/KEYA PAHA

COUNTIES AND/OR AT THE TRIPLE POINT ACROSS SOUTHERN SD. STEEP

LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 K/KM WILL SUPPORT STRONG MID LEVEL

BUOYANCY AND LARGE HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES. RELATIVELY HIGH MLLCL

HEIGHTS AT 1250-2000 METERS WILL GENERALLY LIMIT THE TORNADO

POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH A NARROW WINDOW FROM 0-3Z WILL EXIST AS THE LOW

LEVEL JET KICKS IN...EFFECTIVELY ENLARGING LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND

INCREASING SRH. GIVEN THE HIGH CAPE ENVIRONMENT AND RICH BOUNDARY

LAYER THETA-E...STORMS MAY GROW UPSCALE INTO AN ORGANIZED MCS...WITH

A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS.

SATURDAY...

A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS WESTERN AND

CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AS A LEE LOW DEVELOPS

SOMEWHERE NEAR THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER JUST SOUTH OF NEBRASKA.

A POWERFUL AND AMPLIFIED GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT ANOMALY/VORTICITY

MAXIMA WILL TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND EJECT INTO

EASTERN MT/WESTERN ND DURING THE DAY. RATHER SUBSTANTIAL

DIFFERENCES DO EXIST BETWEEN THE NAM AND THE GFS/ECMWF. THE NAM12

PUSHES A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CLEAR THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA

FRIDAY EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SHUNTING THE SURFACE

LOW FARTHER EASTWARD INTO KANSAS. AN INVERTED TROF AXIS EXTENDS

INTO NORTHEASTERN NE WITH PRONOUNCED EAST SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL

FLOW. SHOULD THIS SOLUTION VERIFY...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL

BE RELEGATED TO ONLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. THE GFS/ECMWF

DEEPEN THE SURFACE LOW FARTHER WEST ALONG THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER

THROUGH THE DAY...WITH DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW ALL THE

WAY INTO THE PANHANDLE. THIS RESULTS IN A HIGH CAPE ENVIRONMENT

EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLE. THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS WOULD

SUPPORT A POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK WITH A MYRIAD

OF SEVERE WEATHER MODES LIKELY. WITH DEEP EAST SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE

FLOW VEERING AROUND TO SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT...THIS WILL SUPPORT

CLOCKWISE CURVING LOOPING HODOGRAPHS CHARACTERIZED BY DEEP LAYER

EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 45-55 KNOTS AND LOW LEVEL 0-3 KM SRH AS HIGH

AS 300-450 M2/S2. MLCAPE WILL RANGE FROM 2500-4000 J/KG...COMBINED

WITH 8-9 K/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL SUPPORT EXPLOSIVE

SUPERCELL GROWTH CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE THAT DETAILS ARE

STILL UNKNOWN...BUT SHOULD A GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION DEVELOP...THE

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ALONG

THE PANHANDLE CONVERGENCE ZONE BEFORE PROPAGATING INTO THE RICH LOW

LEVEL THETA-E REGIME FARTHER E...WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF

DOMINANT RIGHT MOVING SUPERCELLS. A POWERFUL PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL

SURGE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...WITH

STORMS MERGING INTO AN MCS WITH DOMINANT BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF

DAMAGING WIND AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD DURING THE LATE EVENING AND

OVERNIGHT. SOME SOLUTIONS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF A POTENTIAL DERECHO AS

THIS FEATURE TRACKS INTO EASTERN NE. FOR NOW...GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC

DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE...SIDED WITH THE ECMWF/GFS

AND CONTINUED THE CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

SPEAKING OF THE COLD FRONT...A STRONG PRESSURE SURGE IS EXPECTED

AS THIS FEATURE PUSHES OUT OF THE ROCKIES. VERY STRONG AND

SHALLOW COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE SURGE WILL

SUPPORT NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-25 MILES PER HOUR GUSTING TO 45

MILES PER HOUR OVERNIGHT. RIGHT NOW...NO WIND HIGHLIGHTS ARE

EXPECTED.

SUNDAY...

COLD FRONT WILL SHUNT THE WARM SECTOR AIR MASS INTO THE SOUTHERN

PLAINS AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION

WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. COMBINED WITH BACK END RAIN

SHOWERS ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL COLD FRONT...SUNDAY WILL BE MUCH

COOLER AND BELOW NORMAL. TRENDED TEMPERATURES DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY

FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH THE POTENTIAL THEY MAY NEED TO

BE BUMPED DOWN MORE. RAIN SHOWERS WILL EXIT EASTERN NEBRASKA LATE

SUNDAY WITH DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

EXTENDED RANGE (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...

GLOBAL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO STRONG AGREEMENT THAT THE POWERFUL

GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT ANOMALY WILL DEEPEN AND CLOSE OFF INTO A LARGE

VORTEX ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA MONDAY. THIS WILL MERGE WITH A

LARGER VORTEX OVER THE HUDSON BAY WITH A SECONDARY PUSH OF COLD

AIR ADVECTION MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW

TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS. GENERALLY DRY NORTHWEST

FLOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS

ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LARGE COLD CORE UPPER LOW

PUSHES ACROSS NEBRASKA. RIGHT NOW THE ECMWF IS THE ONLY SOLUTION

SUPPORTING THIS...BUT IT IS QUITE PLAUSIBLE CONVECTIVE RAIN

SHOWERS DEVELOP GIVEN THE HIGH SUN ANGLE AND THE STEEP LAPSE

RATES. FOR NOW...HELD OFF ON ANY SLIGHT POPS TUESDAY...BUT THESE

MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED IF THE TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL

REMAINS SIMILAR. OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED

WITH COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LARGE

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A

MIGRATORY CUTOFF NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. LARGE DIFFERENCES

BEGIN TO DEVELOP NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE GFS KICKS OUT

THE SOUTHERN ANOMALY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH ANOTHER

POWERFUL NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TRACKING ACROSS CANADA. THE GFS

INCREASES MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTHWARD...WITH AREAS OF RAIN

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS.

ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER AND SLOWER WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM...AS IS

THE CMC GLOBAL. FOR NOW..HELD OFF ON SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY

AND FRIDAY GIVEN THE LOW PROBABILITY SOLUTION DEPICTED BY THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...

DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITIES TO M1/4SM AND CIGS TO VV001 WILL

CONTINUE OVER SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS

MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA

AND NEBRASKA BORDER BETWEEM KIEN AND KVTN ALSO THROUGH THE MORNING.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON

WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND

MOVE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BETWEEN KVTN AND KONL.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT

/8 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR NEZ035>038-056>059-069>071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...AHSENMACHER

AVIATION...POWER

[ZackH]

I graduated May 07.

It is cold, but then I don't mind cold at all. They get some really fun weather up there for those who are not from there. Some of the best blizzards in the US, and a ton of neat types of extratropical cyclogenesis along the mid winter polar front. Severe in summer is very challenging...one of the harder areas to forecast DMC in my mind...every event always has major question marks.

The program is awesome, and 60-80 % UND graduates get jobs in met for a reason. A dedicated staff and awesome research programs. I am indebted to UND. Dr. Askelson is the man up there. Talk to Cmichweather from the boards. He just got his M.S. in At Sci there and is now at NASA doing programming/research.

Who is your advisor?

Well, I am not sure about who my advisor is yet... they are suppose to be getting in touch soon about next steps, etc. I have done most of my talking with Professor Poellot (super nice guy) and Dr. Osbourne. I have been in correspondence with Dr. Askelson and I absolutely love him. I am hoping I can upgrade to a GRA on one of his projects next semester or next year, but also wouldn't mind working with Gretchen Mullendore or Dr. Gilmore. I imagine it is tough to forecast up there for severe. But when the supercells form up there, they are gorgeous. I am excited about the extremes in weather. My friend Joel Siegel just graduated with his Masters and he loved it up there.