Ed Lizard Posted May 12, 2012 Share Posted May 12, 2012 Waterspout turned tornado in Grand Isle, LA. Skip ahead to 4:30 or so for the landfall. About 5:20 can see what looks like a brief appearance of a small vortex within the bigger tornadic circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 12, 2012 Share Posted May 12, 2012 ensembles break the ridge a good bit post d10 but it's not really an amazing pattern.. in late may/june it's workable for some activity at least. it's hard to believe a death ridge will set up and not budge through the heart of the season... but i suppose it's possible. The east coast troughing is a much bigger worry IMO, it doesn't look like the ridge will hold long across the mtn west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 12, 2012 Share Posted May 12, 2012 As long as there is SOME form of hope on the horizon, then i'm glad to see that. it's still toughy on the EC though not as much... a wc and ec trough pattern can produce, but probably nothing prolific. plus there's not a lot of skill out at that range... some say none but wrt pattern recognition not sure about that. fact -nao wants to hold tough seemingly not that great of news though we're getting closer to the time of year where that does not necessarily bring an EC trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 12, 2012 Share Posted May 12, 2012 The east coast troughing is a much bigger worry IMO, it doesn't look like the ridge will hold long across the mtn west. it's gotta end at some point.. tho it didn't much in 09. a pattern that might produce a t-storm is better than one with nothing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 12, 2012 Share Posted May 12, 2012 it's gotta end at some point.. tho it didn't much in 09. a pattern that might produce a t-storm is better than one with nothing... If I remember right, in mid June 09 there was a decent Outbreak Sequence that produced the Aurora,NE and Austin,MN tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 12, 2012 Share Posted May 12, 2012 If I remember right, in mid June 09 there was a decent Outbreak Sequence that produced the Aurora,NE and Austin,MN tornadoes. yeah. june was more active than may that yr. june pattern was sorta similar to what the gfs shows near the end of the run. before april ended looked over yrs that had fewer april tornadoes than march and almost all (not many overall) had more active junes than may. tho we may have ended up about equal or slightly + on april this yr based on reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 12, 2012 Share Posted May 12, 2012 EF 1 rating on that Grand Isle Waterspout/Tornado reminds me to always take waterspouts seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted May 13, 2012 Share Posted May 13, 2012 While the upper air pattern looks crappy, this now makes more sense to me on how the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley could see 60-65 dews. Dews are now getting transported up here. While we could see some active weather next weekend up here, I wouldn't completely rule out eastern NE if this holds. Notice the dry line bulge, while not that impressive now, it is something to watch for in subsequent model runs. Because there may be capping issues, and the upper air pattern is not great, I wouldn't expect a regional severe event to show it's teeth, but local area's could see some form of severe weather. Not all hope is lost. Edit: or should I say in north east KS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 13, 2012 Author Share Posted May 13, 2012 00z GFS keeps that east coast troughing for so darn long, ridiculous... Fortunately, most of the ensembles are not nearly as stubborn (or boring) with it, the ones that are more persistent seem to be blowing up some storms on the east coast, which would at least be something to track... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reber500 Posted May 13, 2012 Share Posted May 13, 2012 While the upper air pattern looks crappy, this now makes more sense to me on how the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley could see 60-65 dews. Dews are now getting transported up here. While we could see some active weather next weekend up here, I wouldn't completely rule out eastern NE if this holds. Notice the dry line bulge, while not that impressive now, it is something to watch for in subsequent model runs. Because there may be capping issues, and the upper air pattern is not great, I wouldn't expect a regional severe event to show it's teeth, but local area's could see some form of severe weather. Not all hope is lost. Edit: or should I say in north east KS? Yeah, the entire Eastern half of KS just has a flood of moisture... Only if we could get a good lifting mechanism, and some shear.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reber500 Posted May 13, 2012 Share Posted May 13, 2012 How many straight days have we had a "Potential Too Low" on the 4-8 Outlook, and things aren't looking to great for the end of May. Maybe we'll see some sort of an outbreak in June, and possibly July (Although nothing seems to happen in July)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 13, 2012 Share Posted May 13, 2012 Tomorrow is one of those days that can produce if everything works out perfectly. 12z GFS would be supportive of a decent convective event across fat SW Texas associated with that compact low...nice veering hodographs/lots of low level backing and respectably low MLLCLs towards the late afternoon. A lot of things need to go right...including a sufficiently strong ejection of this upper perturbation...which models have not modeled all that great in terms of its vertical depth. Also dependent upon any MCS/organized clusters that develop today/tonite given that perturbation will begin to eject late today....it will support a strong enough low level mass response to support quite a bit of activity tonite. But the threat is there tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 13, 2012 Share Posted May 13, 2012 last few runs of the gfs have been better imo. potentially indicitave of a pattern change or pattern realignment in the long range. of course this one is still kicking up some phantom east coast tropical system but overall trend of more energetic waves near the northern states followed by a pretty sizeable trough on the west coast. believable? dunno. we can't get stuck in this forever though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 13, 2012 Share Posted May 13, 2012 D+10 on the Euro remains nauseating. The monster eastern trough is more akin to 2006 than 2009. Both had horrendous Mays, but 2009 came back to life a bit in June, whereas 2006 was simply over by late April. The timeframe for which I have any hope whatsoever is getting pushed back toward Memorial Day, and that could be optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 13, 2012 Author Share Posted May 13, 2012 One thing I am noticing is that it seems as if several of the analog years to this current pattern had rather active Summer/Fall seasons, although obviously most would prefer to see something before then... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 13, 2012 Share Posted May 13, 2012 D+10 on the Euro remains nauseating. The monster eastern trough is more akin to 2006 than 2009. Both had horrendous Mays, but 2009 came back to life a bit in June, whereas 2006 was simply over by late April. The timeframe for which I have any hope whatsoever is getting pushed back toward Memorial Day, and that could be optimistic. I would't say that the 2006 season was over by April by any means. There were notable outbreaks on: May 9-10 August 23-24 September 21-23 November 15-16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 13, 2012 Share Posted May 13, 2012 I would't say that the 2006 season was over by April by any means. There were notable outbreaks on: May 9-10 August 23-24 September 21-23 November 15-16 Nothing notable about that 3.5 month gap... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 13, 2012 Share Posted May 13, 2012 2006 still had a little activity late May-early June -- I mean very little, but it wasn't dead totally. I pulled climo for our planned chase period and there's never been no activity in the target zone during the period. Not to say it was all chaseable etc. I guess sitting on my couch for 2 weeks will be just as fun if it comes to that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 13, 2012 Share Posted May 13, 2012 landspout in nm today http://www.kob.com/article/stories/S2616975.shtml#.T7AvAM6mCAg.facebook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 13, 2012 Share Posted May 13, 2012 Nothing notable about that 3.5 month gap... Well yes a big gap for sure, but there were some late summer and fall outbreaks that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 13, 2012 Share Posted May 13, 2012 the 18z gfs continues the gfs trend of at least a not as tragic a pattern. it's not necessarily consistent run to run except that the d10+ timeframe is not dead. perhaps more believable than the 12z run tho i still sorta overall want to trust in patterns trying to balance at some pt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 13, 2012 Author Share Posted May 13, 2012 The 12z GFS ensembles look promising into the long range, although the Euro ensembles seem a bit more bleak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 13, 2012 Share Posted May 13, 2012 Not to pour water on the fire but isn't the Euro usually the better long range model? With that said, the GFS is nice to look at because as soon the EC troughing lets up, things immediately start looking more interesting. There is a Northern Plains broad trough followed by a very deep meridional trough at the very end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 13, 2012 Author Share Posted May 13, 2012 Both of the models and their respective ensemble suites have their strengths and weaknesses further out (often the weaknesses outnumber the strengths given that it is so far out), it's better to look for overall patterns supporting synoptically active periods than actually attempt to tie them to specific storm systems in the longer range. And as Ian mentioned a bit ago, usually looking at them is pointless when you have potential action a week or less in advance on the models, but right now, it's quite frankly the best we got... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 Not to pour water on the fire but isn't the Euro usually the better long range model? With that said, the GFS is nice to look at because as soon the EC troughing lets up, things immediately start looking more interesting. There is a Northern Plains broad trough followed by a very deep meridional trough at the very end of the run. i think the ridge is transient on the euro tho i guess you never know if it will just keep building and reinforcing itself. at this time of year i'd tend to say no. either way, both euro and gfs are not very good thru d10.. and after could be dart throwing. but... i think if you get to a pt where run after run after run are more interesting than death ridge it might be worth something. since 0z last night at least the gfs has not been suicide inducing at least. i would not totally shut the door on the late week/weekend trough either though it needs some help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 Not to pour water on the fire but isn't the Euro usually the better long range model? With that said, the GFS is nice to look at because as soon the EC troughing lets up, things immediately start looking more interesting. There is a Northern Plains broad trough followed by a very deep meridional trough at the very end of the run. As Ian/Andyhb mentioned...beyond day 8 or so (from a verbatim model solution standpoint), it really becomes anyone's best guess as models scores dip well below usable values. Ensembling can extend that range significantly, and when used skillfully with pattern recognition, climo, analogs, teleconnections and global weather patterns, etc., long range ensembles can be quite a useful tool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 I would't say that the 2006 season was over by April by any means. There were notable outbreaks on: May 9-10 August 23-24 September 21-23 November 15-16 Well, I was referring to the spring by "2006 season." The Dakotas certainly did have a nice early fall season. BTW, even 9-10 May 2006 was all east of I-35 and more or less worthless to chasers. I remember staying home on 9 May because initiation was in the jungles of SE OK. My only regret in hindsight is not knowing to head to Childress for the flukey post-frontal tornadic supercell (in all honesty, probably one of the top 5 Plains events of that spring... lol). The pinnacle of the Spring 2006 chase season in the Plains states, all the way from TX to ND, was probably the two 5-10 minute long El Reno, OK, tornadoes on April 24. It was unimaginably awful. The late 80s may hold legendary status for suckage among veterans, but I bet none of those years were quite that bad -- there just weren't hundreds of chasers willing and able to hunt down every mesoscale accident day back then.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 noticing more people biting at least a little on late month tho not sure if they're just hoping. http://stormhunterca.blogspot.ca/2012/05/ive-got-ton-of-updating-to-do.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 Looks like tsnow12 and the COD crew are on the bowing line segment near Pecos, TX. PEQ just gusted to 71mph. At least they're seeing some sort of action in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 Most encouraging plot I've seen out of Dr. No for a week or more. Far from a perfect pattern, but I imagine this would herald the return of decent SLGT type setups north of I-70 by the 24th-26th. Unpleasant as that eastern trough looks, one of the many great things about late season is the ability to scrounge up decent moisture most of the time unless there's northerly flow all the way down into the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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