baroclinic_instability Posted May 11, 2012 Share Posted May 11, 2012 Don't look at the 12z EC or it'll be more of a nosedive... lol. The wild inconsistency between these two consecutive runs is one of the more encouraging signs I've seen lately regarding the medium range, at least. heh. i looked at it but refrained from comment. for some reason i saved long range model runs from last year in the leadup to going. hopefully this year's are as wrong as those were. It looks pathetic. East coast troughing combined with SW flow and weak, low amplitude ejections. It isn't going to happen anytime soon unless something drastically changes. GFS, as expected, backed off on its day 6-8 trough ejection across the plains while the EC backed off on a day 7+ shortwave ejection. Even then all guidance has closed GOM with low level boundary layer moisture reliant on crappy early season ET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 11, 2012 Share Posted May 11, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0788 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0518 PM CDT FRI MAY 11 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 112218Z - 112345Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...SOME SVR THREAT MAY EVOLVE INTO THIS EVENING. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF A WW. DISCUSSION...RELATIVELY ILL-DEFINED MESOSCALE SFC BOUNDARIES EAST OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW TRACKING ACROSS PORTIONS OF N TX AND OK WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS FOCI FOR BANDS AND CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN TX. A BROKEN SQUALL LINE EXTENDING FROM 50 MILES NW OF TYLER TX TO 15 MILES ENE OF TEMPLE TX WILL CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT SOME SEWD PROPAGATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN TX DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE INFLOW -- MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J PER KG ENHANCED IN POCKETS OF INSOLATION -- SUPPORTS REGENERATIVE CONVECTION FARTHER SE. INVOF THE SQUALL LINE...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 25-35 KT WILL SUPPORT SOME CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION INCLUDING BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WITH POSSIBLE SVR WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OWING TO EARLIER CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING MAY MITIGATE UPDRAFT STRENGTH. SOUTH OF THE SQUALL LINE TOWARD THE SAN ANTONIO AND HOUSTON AREAS...MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING INVOF SOMEWHAT STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR -- I.E. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 35-50 KT. RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THIS REGION ARE YIELDING COMPARATIVELY STRONGER BUOYANCY. THIS MAY OCCASIONALLY SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES...WITH ATTENDANT THREATS FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS AND SVR HAIL. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THIS REGION IS REMOVED FROM THE STRONGER DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST...AND THIS MAY MITIGATE THE OVERALL SVR THREAT. ..COHEN/CARBIN.. 05/11/2012 ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadgerWXman Posted May 11, 2012 Share Posted May 11, 2012 Wall cloud now s of brookshire Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadgerWXman Posted May 11, 2012 Share Posted May 11, 2012 Dropping SE to avoid precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 12, 2012 Share Posted May 12, 2012 Wall cloud now s of brookshire Warned now. HGX is asking for you link again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 12, 2012 Share Posted May 12, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0791 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0728 PM CDT FRI MAY 11 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX...SWRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON VALID 120028Z - 120100Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT SUMMARY...A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SERN TX. DISCUSSION...STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AMIDST RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY WILL SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT WITH SUPERCELLS NEAR WARM FRONT AND SFC TROUGH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS AND A WATCH ISSUANCE WILL BE COORDINATED BETWEEN THE SPC AND THE AFFECTED LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES SHORTLY. ..COHEN/CARBIN.. 05/12/2012 ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 12, 2012 Share Posted May 12, 2012 Arlington and Rangers baseball game about to get pillaged heavy rain style. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 12, 2012 Share Posted May 12, 2012 Rotation just to my SE with the cell near Jersey Village as well in the NW Houston Metro Area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 12, 2012 Share Posted May 12, 2012 Tornado warned storm approaching Houston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reber500 Posted May 12, 2012 Share Posted May 12, 2012 TORNADO WATCH #274 FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS COASTAL WATERS DISCUSSION...DISCRETE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM HOUSTON AREA EAST TO THE SABINE PASS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING LIFTED ACROSS A WEAK WARM FRONT ACROSS THESE AREAS APPEARS TO BE CONTRIBUTING TO TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND MAY BE FURTHER AIDED AS LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION TONIGHT. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS WHILE LOW LEVEL STORM RELATIVE SHEAR NEAR AND ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL OCCASIONALLY FAVOR LOW LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION AND A CHANCE FOR A TORNADO OR TWO. THIS TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL ALSO BE SUPPORTED BY HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER RH AND LOW LFC LEVELS AOB 1KM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 12, 2012 Share Posted May 12, 2012 Both storms are now clearly hooking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reber500 Posted May 12, 2012 Share Posted May 12, 2012 TOR Warning got cancelled, but the Storm to the west has a SVR TSTM Warning, like previous said, definitely hooks on all the storms... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted May 12, 2012 Share Posted May 12, 2012 The storm over Trinity TX will need an SVR. Looks to have one now, some decent hail will fall with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted May 12, 2012 Share Posted May 12, 2012 Concerning next weekend and the output the ECMWF is showing. It looks like the warm front will lift northward all the way to the international border of MN and Canada. OK that seems to be pretty straight forward, (as far as that model goes), here is where the questions start to come in. Just before that time the 850mb winds in GOM seem to be howling from the east into central TX at which time they make a sharp turn to the north even to the northeast, but Dew's in TX are relatively low, it's not until you get into the NE/MO/IA area that you start to see 60 dews. Then by 0z Sunday we see a pool of 65 dews over MSP, (that is new with the 11/12z run, before that it was in the low 60's.) Temps should be around 85 by that time. So here is my question, where is the model getting these high dew's from? Are the ET values 3-4 weeks early because of the warm spring? Will the crops be that far along? Or is it because of the heavy rains we got last week, combined with our natural abundance of rivers and lakes, coupled with high temps, could this be home grown dews? Or is the model just flat out wrong. Anyone's insight is welcomed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 12, 2012 Share Posted May 12, 2012 love how the gfs spins up yet another EC low at the end of 0z run. we can't get them in the winter but we'll get them all spring long... at least there is semblence of a flow across the northern states and southern canada. maybe i'll take the weekend off from longrange models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted May 12, 2012 Share Posted May 12, 2012 love how the gfs spins up yet another EC low at the end of 0z run. we can't get them in the winter but we'll get them all spring long... at least there is semblence of a flow across the northern states and southern canada. maybe i'll take the weekend off from longrange models. I'm sure once I leave Kansas at the end of June the storms will come back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 12, 2012 Share Posted May 12, 2012 love how the gfs spins up yet another EC low at the end of 0z run. we can't get them in the winter but we'll get them all spring long... at least there is semblence of a flow across the northern states and southern canada. maybe i'll take the weekend off from longrange models. Or head to Texas. Oh and we're flooding down here this morning with water in homes in Metro Houston... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted May 12, 2012 Share Posted May 12, 2012 Waterspout turned tornado in Grand Isle, LA. Skip ahead to 4:30 or so for the landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 12, 2012 Share Posted May 12, 2012 That was incredible footage! And stupid...that guy is lucky he is alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 12, 2012 Share Posted May 12, 2012 Waterspout turned tornado in Grand Isle, LA. Skip ahead to 4:30 or so for the landfall. That wasn't like the waterspout I saw in the Gulf, a skinny thread from a tall cumulus cloud that didn't seem to qualify as a thunderstorm/cb. TWC showed radar from when that happened, it was a well developed thunderstorm dropping South, I'd guess he was on the North side of Grand Isle filming towards mainland Louisiana. Grand Isle is an unlucky place, besides the hurricanes, in 1993 a tornado hit the high school, killing 3, including the prom queen. http://articles.latimes.com/1993-04-09/news/mn-21023_1_school-collapse-kills-three Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 12, 2012 Share Posted May 12, 2012 That was incredible footage! And stupid...that guy is lucky he is alive. I'd like to indict him on a second charge of stupidity for posting tornado/video damage that good on f***ing YouTube without any watermark so it can be used freely by the media... ugh. Good stuff, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted May 12, 2012 Share Posted May 12, 2012 Latest ensemble data looks simply awful for at least 10 days. Next weekend could have 1 or two marginal days in the Dakotas/MN but overall this is one of the worst severe patterns in May in the Plains in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 12, 2012 Share Posted May 12, 2012 Waterspout turned tornado in Grand Isle, LA. Skip ahead to 4:30 or so for the landfall. That may be some of the best footage of close up destruction I've seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 12, 2012 Share Posted May 12, 2012 The 12z ECMWF was a joke. I despise boring weather, and it is going to be boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 12, 2012 Share Posted May 12, 2012 This pattern needs to break before June, or i'll lose my sanity. I need something to track and nerd over! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 12, 2012 Author Share Posted May 12, 2012 The 12z ECMWF was a joke. I despise boring weather, and it is going to be boring. Good lord that was bad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 12, 2012 Share Posted May 12, 2012 I don't even think you could try and make a worse looking day 10 ensemble plot than this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MnWeatherman Posted May 12, 2012 Share Posted May 12, 2012 Latest ensemble data looks simply awful for at least 10 days. Next weekend could have 1 or two marginal days in the Dakotas/MN but overall this is one of the worst severe patterns in May in the Plains in a while. I'm really hoping so! Also getting tired of this pattern... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 12, 2012 Share Posted May 12, 2012 ensembles break the ridge a good bit post d10 but it's not really an amazing pattern.. in late may/june it's workable for some activity at least. it's hard to believe a death ridge will set up and not budge through the heart of the season... but i suppose it's possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 12, 2012 Share Posted May 12, 2012 ensembles break the ridge a good bit post d10 but it's not really an amazing pattern.. in late may/june it's workable for some activity at least. it's hard to believe a death ridge will set up and not budge through the heart of the season... but i suppose it's possible. As long as there is SOME form of hope on the horizon, then i'm glad to see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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