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May 4th - 16th Severe Weather Thread


andyhb

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Well i'm looking at the long range GFS, and it is showing a broad trough over Canada and the Dakotas on the 18th, and is then followed by a deep trough that is hinting at some activity in the Northern Plains. There is decent shear, moisture, and instability in place there. It's too far away get too exited about but it's something hopeful to look at.

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Well i'm looking at the long range GFS, and it is showing a broad trough over Canada and the Dakotas on the 18th, and is then followed by a deep trough that is hinting at some activity in the Northern Plains. There is decent shear, moisture, and instability in place there. It's too far away get too exited about but it's something hopeful to look at.

It is ok, really doesn't get me too enthused though. GOM will be shut off for quite a while with that broad east coast troughing...any threats in the Northern Plains will be reliant on evapotranspiration. Positive tilt waves with SW flow across the northern plains sounds like elevated junk with cap issues, we will see. But you are right...the threats will be shifting to the central and northern plains in the extended range...at this point at least.

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It is ok, really doesn't get me too enthused though. GOM will be shut off for quite a while with that broad east coast troughing...any threats in the Northern Plains will be reliant on evapotranspiration. Positive tilt waves with SW flow across the northern plains sounds like elevated junk with cap issues, we will see. But you are right...the threats will be shifting to the central and northern plains in the extended range...at this point at least.

Agreed. Return flow can be a problem when you have a big East Coast trough...even more so when you're talking the Northern Plains.

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ECMWF still has major east-coast troughing hanging tough at 240 hr. with moisture nowhere to be found in the Plains. A nice shortwave moves through the Dakotas next weekend with >60 F dew points confined to the Gulf Coast. I don't think I've ever seen such an abysmal moisture situation in tandem with southwest flow in mid-late May.

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Sunday in the Pecos Valley Region/southeast NM could be fairly nice *if* the GFS is correct. Great turning and getting 50 degree dews with enough instability to pop off maybe a few high based supercells. 30-40kts of westerly mid-level flow with almost easterly winds at the surface can do wonders with higher elevation.

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ECMWF still has major east-coast troughing hanging tough at 240 hr. with moisture nowhere to be found in the Plains. A nice shortwave moves through the Dakotas next weekend with >60 F dew points confined to the Gulf Coast. I don't think I've ever seen such an abysmal moisture situation in tandem with southwest flow in mid-late May.

i guess today i'll see saw down on my feelings. peculiar may for sure.

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in more runs than not of recent the gfs has built a trough into the west coast toward the end of the run. however, on half of those it still has troughiness in the east too. not to mention im a moron for continuing to look at the d14-16 gfs.

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i guess today i'll see saw down on my feelings. peculiar may for sure.

Don't look at the 12z EC or it'll be more of a nosedive... lol.

The wild inconsistency between these two consecutive runs is one of the more encouraging signs I've seen lately regarding the medium range, at least.

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Don't look at the 12z EC or it'll be more of a nosedive... lol.

The wild inconsistency between these two consecutive runs is one of the more encouraging signs I've seen lately regarding the medium range, at least.

heh. i looked at it but refrained from comment. for some reason i saved long range model runs from last year in the leadup to going. hopefully this year's are as wrong as those were.

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last yr the pattern was pretty blocky in may as well. even the ramp up before may 24 had features over the east coast etc. not that it matters necessarily..

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Should have posted this here earlier but I've been chasing since Sun.. We were on some good storms yesterday.. The Internet was awful in the part of TX we were in so we had trouble streaming while we were on a storm with a rotating wall cloud and a few brief funnels. Anyways, we are chasing again today.. Currently on I10 west of Houston about to head north. Here's the link to the live stream: ustream.com/channel/storm-chasing-with-Jacob-Wycoff. I'll try to post updates here if we get anything!

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Should have posted this here earlier but I've been chasing since Sun.. We were on some good storms yesterday.. The Internet was awful in the part of TX we were in so we had trouble streaming while we were on a storm with a rotating wall cloud and a few brief funnels. Anyways, we are chasing again today.. Currently on I10 west of Houston about to head north. Here's the link to the live stream: ustream.com/channel/storm-chasing-with-Jacob-Wycoff. I'll try to post updates here if we get anything!

Colorado County cell is ramping up. Good Luck!

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