wxsniss Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 Some possible rotation on south side of collided cells. Hard to tell given distance from radar, I think scans are relatively higher elevation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 Some possible rotation on south side of collided cells. Hard to tell given distance from radar, I think scans are relatively higher elevation Looking at velocity data from Laughlin AFB and Corpus Christi, a TOR would not be a bad idea for this storm at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 10, 2012 Author Share Posted May 10, 2012 Cell NNW of Laredo really tightening its rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted May 11, 2012 Share Posted May 11, 2012 Cell NNW of Laredo really tightening its rotation. I'm right there. Visible wall cloud This should e warned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 11, 2012 Share Posted May 11, 2012 Cell NNW of Laredo really tightening its rotation. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 643 PM CDT THU MAY 10 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN DUVAL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS... SOUTHWESTERN MCMULLEN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS... EAST CENTRAL WEBB COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS... * UNTIL 730 PM CDT * AT 643 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO OVER EAST CENTRAL WEBB COUNTY...OR 16 MILES WEST OF FREER...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... RURAL NORTHWESTERN DUVAL COUNTY... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 11, 2012 Share Posted May 11, 2012 tornado report a few min ago on the lead cell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 11, 2012 Author Share Posted May 11, 2012 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN MCMULLEN...SOUTHERN LIVE OAK...NORTHWESTERN JIM WELLS AND NORTHEASTERN DUVAL COUNTIES... AT 721 PM CDT...A STORM CHASER REPORTED A TORNADO ON THE GROUND AROUND 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CLEGG...OR 20 MILES NORTHEAST OF FREER...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... RANCHO DE LA PARITA... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO...TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 11, 2012 Share Posted May 11, 2012 CRP reports TOR possibly on the ground near Freer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 11, 2012 Share Posted May 11, 2012 Previous HRRR runs have handled this discrete convection very poorly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 11, 2012 Author Share Posted May 11, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0781NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0718 PM CDT THU MAY 10 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTH/CENTRAL TX EWD TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE TX COAST CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 110018Z - 110115Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT SUMMARY...A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY 01Z...WHICH WOULD REPLACE PORTIONS OF BOTH TORNADO WATCH 271 AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 272...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DISCUSSION...PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EWD INVOF A QUASI-STATIONARY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM WEBB COUNTY EWD TOWARD LIVE OAK COUNTY AND NEWD INTO VICTORIA COUNTY...WITH THIS ACTIVITY EVENTUALLY REACHING THE LOWER/MIDDLE TX COAST BY LATE EVENING. ADDITIONAL STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. AS SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY ADVANCES NWD NEAR AND SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM WEBB TO NUECES COUNTIES...THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SFC-BASED DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WHILE MORE ISOLATED SFC-BASED CONVECTION MOVES ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR -- E.G. SUPERCELL APPROACHING ZAPATA COUNTY FROM THE WEST. LARGE HAIL -- POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT -- AND DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE GREATEST CONCERN WITH THE STORMS...AS 00Z CORPUS CHRISTI/BROWNSVILLE RAOBS SUGGEST THE PRESENCE OF STRONG INSTABILITY. ALSO...AS BELOW-1-KM-AGL FLOW MAINTAINS AN ELY COMPONENT BENEATH MODERATE WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ALOFT...EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 150-300 M2/S2 -- HIGHEST INVOF THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES -- WILL SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT...PARTICULARLY WITH ANY DISCRETE/SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES AMIDST THE RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL LIKELY SUPPORT AN EVOLUTION TOWARD ONE OR MORE FORWARD-PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS...WITH AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS AS STORMS MOVE TOWARD THE LOWER/MIDDLE TX COAST. ..COHEN/CARBIN.. 05/11/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 11, 2012 Share Posted May 11, 2012 22z HRRR reflectivity (Valid 1z): Actual radar as of 00:25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 11, 2012 Share Posted May 11, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 11, 2012 Share Posted May 11, 2012 Gorgeous, absolutely gorgeous cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 11, 2012 Author Share Posted May 11, 2012 Sup out over the water is still going strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 11, 2012 Share Posted May 11, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 11, 2012 Author Share Posted May 11, 2012 Some nice wx pornography right there...impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 11, 2012 Author Share Posted May 11, 2012 see more hope in the long range last few runs of gfs/euro tho something tells me this whole crap period won't end up the total disaster it appeared. this event today sorta ramped up under 24 hrs. Finally seeing some consistent signs of the ridge being shunted east/flattened a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 11, 2012 Share Posted May 11, 2012 New tornado watch up for a good portion of TX until 8 UTC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 11, 2012 Author Share Posted May 11, 2012 Inflow really intensifying on the pair of lead supercells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 11, 2012 Share Posted May 11, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted May 11, 2012 Share Posted May 11, 2012 San Antonio in a Tornado Watch until 3 am. Anyone have any idea of a time frame I may be looking at here for the worst of it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted May 11, 2012 Share Posted May 11, 2012 From cell that passed north of Laredo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 11, 2012 Share Posted May 11, 2012 San Antonio in a Tornado Watch until 3 am. Anyone have any idea of a time frame I may be looking at here for the worst of it? Probably right now Looks like some very heavy rain and possible hail with this cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 11, 2012 Share Posted May 11, 2012 Finally seeing some consistent signs of the ridge being shunted east/flattened a bit. the trough next week looks like it may end up having enough moisture around .. 60s dew make it to the n plains on some runs. after that total wild guess but hints are there and an EC ridge almost never fails near memorial day.. almost always the first real heat wave somewhere around then. that's speculation of course. but... maybe season cancel cancel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted May 11, 2012 Share Posted May 11, 2012 Yeah, it looks frickin' nasty outside right now... I'm technologically challenged, but I posted a picture to my facebook. It's normally light here until about 9-930 and the sky is completely black, lightening going like crazy and can hear thunder loud in the distance. I don't think there is any sirens here at all, because we had a tornado pretty close to my house about a month or so ago and never heard any sirens or anything. Should be interesting. After this little bit I should be done though, right? Probably right now Looks like some very heavy rain and possible hail with this cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 11, 2012 Share Posted May 11, 2012 EWX reporting wind gusts to 50-60 mph with the Austin bow echo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 11, 2012 Share Posted May 11, 2012 Yeah, it looks frickin' nasty outside right now... I'm technologically challenged, but I posted a picture to my facebook. It's normally light here until about 9-930 and the sky is completely black, lightening going like crazy and can hear thunder loud in the distance. I don't think there is any sirens here at all, because we had a tornado pretty close to my house about a month or so ago and never heard any sirens or anything. Should be interesting. After this little bit I should be done though, right? There looks to be an area of very heavy rain after that, but the occasional hail/wind/lightning threat can't be ruled out with some of the embedded cells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted May 11, 2012 Share Posted May 11, 2012 Really coming down out here accompanied by frequent lightening and very loud and close thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 11, 2012 Share Posted May 11, 2012 If the ridge can flatten and a good upper level jet can co locate over deep low level moisture we may renew activity this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 11, 2012 Share Posted May 11, 2012 http://www.click2hou...hz/-/index.html The National Weather Service said the tornado briefly touched down at Weimar High School, 506 West Main Street, at about 5:25 p.m. School district officials said some injuries were reported. There was a fundraiser going on at the school at the time of the storm. A scoreboard at the high school was damaged, NWS officials said. NWS officials said a train was derailed in Weimar. According to the Fayette County Sheriff's Office, a tornado peeled back the roof of Colorado-Fayette Medical Center, 400 Youens Drive. No injuries were reported there, but the 10 patients there were transferred to Columbus Community Hospital or discharged. Weimar is about 88 miles west of downtown Houston. KHOU has clearer picture. The 8 injured were outside during a fundraiser, none of the injuries are life threatening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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