Derek30 Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 If you want to chase a band of showers/thunderstorms, come on up to southern Manitoba tomorrow. Nothing will thrill you more than some small hail and the odd gust of wind. In all seriousness, it's cool to be talking about any thunder potential in early to mid May. I'll take anything this early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 What is indicating that June will be lame as well? nothing in particular but if we run up weeks in a row of very quiet gotta wonder a bit. long range gfs still has hints of something better here and there toward the end but it's fairly ugly. long range models are dart throwing in many ways but maybe less so with large scale patterns than specific storms etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 Long range 12z GFS also has a fantasy tropical system late in its run lol wonder how much if at all that messes up the mid lvl pattern on the model. perhaps not at all.. seems highly unlikely that its real of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian Express Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 Well my C/W fellow posters, some interesting news. I have accepted a position as a general met in Anchorage, AK. I will be leaving NE in 1.5 months. I don't plan on leaving the forums or quitting as mod though, at least that is the plan. I am sure most of you would much rather see me leave But it is quite a day for me. Severe weather is something I am still delving into...I will fully admit my knowledge is noobish compared to some of the elite posters here, but winter weather has always been my love. Anchorage should fit me nicely. Congrats B/I on the new gig!....I do hope you have the time to post after you get settled. I have always enjoy your analytical posts and always look forward to your winter wx event discussion contributions to the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reber500 Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 (Off Topic, but there is nothing to talk about so whatever) Apparently the NWS will now have an Hourly Weather Forecast graph and it goes out about 5 days... Or at least that's what it shows on the Local Forecast Preview pages. Please tell me the NWS isn't trying to become AccuWx. The site is much more modern/prettier looking, and slightly more amateur user friendly. (Not that anybody really goes to the NWS WFO pages for basic weather information anyway) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 (Off Topic, but there is nothing to talk about so whatever) Apparently the NWS will now have an Hourly Weather Forecast graph and it goes out about 5 days... Or at least that's what it shows on the Local Forecast Preview pages. Please tell me the NWS isn't trying to become AccuWx. This has always been avaliable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 Well my C/W fellow posters, some interesting news. I have accepted a position as a general met in Anchorage, AK. I will be leaving NE in 1.5 months. I don't plan on leaving the forums or quitting as mod though, at least that is the plan. I am sure most of you would much rather see me leave But it is quite a day for me. Severe weather is something I am still delving into...I will fully admit my knowledge is noobish compared to some of the elite posters here, but winter weather has always been my love. Anchorage should fit me nicely. Congrats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reber500 Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 This has always been avaliable. I know this... I ment to say it is more blatant on the page, being in the middle, rather than being on the very bottom right corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 tomorrow looks more interesting in s tx with new nam. seems there've been a lot of supercell days down in that area this yr. not to mention the ones there tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 I've been reading how most people are almost ready to give up on the severe season. In some respects this reminds of 2010, and the Vortex 2 project where they had trouble finding tornado's in the plain states. Their funding would allow them to be active up until June 1st or there about. But after June 1st all hell broke out up here in the Upper Mississippi Valley, and they missed that. I have a gut feeling (no science behind it), that this is possible again this year. Of course I don't think anything is even remotely possible this year compared to 2010 when MN had 48 tornado's on June 17th. However I do think the baroclinic (sp) zone will set up over the northern plains from the end of May through the end of June. So I would say this, north of the I-80 corridor could be very active during the next 6- 8 weeks. Could it extend into southern Canada? my guess is yes. For storm chasers I hope I'm right, for those that could be impacted I hope I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 I've been reading how most people are almost ready to give up on the severe season. In some respects this reminds of 2010, and the Vortex 2 project where they had trouble finding tornado's in the plain states. Their funding would allow them to be active up until June 1st or there about. But after June 1st all hell broke out up here in the Upper Mississippi Valley, and they missed that. I have a gut feeling (no science behind it), that this is possible again this year. Of course I don't think anything is even remotely possible this year compared to 2010 when MN had 48 tornado's on June 17th. However I do think the baroclinic (sp) zone will set up over the northern plains from the end of May through the end of June. So I would say this, north of the I-80 corridor could be very active during the next 6- 8 weeks. Could it extend into southern Canada? my guess is yes. For storm chasers I hope I'm right, for those that could be impacted I hope I'm wrong. 2012 and 2010 are in zero ways comparable. May 2010 was chock-full of plains tornado activity. 5/10, 5/18, 5/19, 5/22, 5/23, 5/24, and 5/31 all come to mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 2012 and 2010 are in zero ways comparable. May 2010 was chock-full of plains tornado activity. 5/10, 5/18, 5/19, 5/22, 5/23, 5/24, and 5/31 all come to mind. Have to agree here. That was easily one of the great May-centric Plains chase seasons of the past decade. Even aside from the dates you listed, which cover the big boys fairly well, there were nice marginal events almost nonstop after 5/10. I recall good supercells in OK on 5/11, 5/12, 5/16, and 5/30, as well. The other year that belongs in that discussion, 2004, also got into full swing by 5/12 and hardly let up after. The end of this month will have to be a barrage of impressive setups day-after-day in order to compete with either of those years. However, his point was more geared toward an active late-season up north, which is still possible. It only takes one 6/17/10-like event (plus maybe a handful of more mesoscale events) to get a banner season up that way, since climo dictates their prime season is shorter and contains fewer events per year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 2012 and 2010 are in zero ways comparable. May 2010 was chock-full of plains tornado activity. 5/10, 5/18, 5/19, 5/22, 5/23, 5/24, and 5/31 all come to mind. ok I stand corrected, but if I remember right Vortex 2 had a hard time finding them..is my memory failing me?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 ok I stand corrected, but if I remember right Vortex 2 had a hard time finding them..is my memory failing me?? There is an old saying for their 2010 year. If you want to see a tornado, go AWAY from the VORTEX 2 Armada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 I'm looking at two things that caught my eye the last two months. First of all the warm temps in the northern gulf, that concerns me as some of those higher DP's could get up here, coupled by what I think is a strong ridge over the SE US. Now take into affect the transevaporation environment that will exist up here when the corn crop starts leafing out, we could see some nice cape values up here, the question is will we see a good set up to initiate strong storms. I think yes, but it could end over up southern Canada depending on where the upper level jet sets up....just my thoughts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 Nice hook on tor warned cell, which was nice enough to wait until past the populated areas of Webb County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 We will have to see if this early morning DMC messes with later activity....but I could see some hatching for hail/wind with the long hodographs and the potential for quite a few discrete supercells later this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 IDK, I could be wrong, but there seems to be a decent tor potential later this afternoon as well. Some pretty nice looping hodos, EHI maxes out from 00-03z, SREF sig tor has a 40% bullseye, PV ejects right around the 00z timeframe. Mid level flow is marginal, but it seems there may be a better than 2% tor later on dependent on convective evolution today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0758 AM CDT THU MAY 10 2012 VALID 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF SRN THROUGH SERN TX... ...SYNOPSIS... A PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THIS PERIOD...WITH NRN MEXICO UPR LOW CONTINUING E TO ENE INTO CNTRL TX AS LWR GRT LKS TROUGH FURTHER AMPLIFIES UPON MOVING E INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC. ELSEWHERE...POSITIVE-TILT PACIFIC NW/NRN RCKYS TROUGH EXPECTED TO REACH THE NRN PLNS BY 12Z FRI. AT THE SFC...FRONTAL ZONE THAT ENTERED THE LWR RIO GRANDE ON TUE SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND REDEVELOP NWD INTO S TX LATER TODAY...WHILE THE ERN PART OF THE SAME BOUNDARY CONTINUES SLOWLY SE ACROSS CNTRL/SRN FL. THE BOUNDARY...AND ASSOCIATED WAA FIELD...WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STRONG TO SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF TX TODAY THROUGH EARLY FRI...AND ALSO MAY SUPPORT SCTD STRONG STORMS IN FL THIS AFTN. ...S CNTRL INTO S AND SE TX TODAY/TNGT... COMBINATION OF VERY RICH MOISTURE /PW 1.25 TO 1.75 INCHES WITH UPR 60S TO LOW 70S F DEWPOINTS/...INCREASING WAA/UPR ASCENT WITH APPROACHING UPR LOW...AND SFC HEATING EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SEVERAL EPISODES OF STRONG TO SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE PART OF SRN AND SERN TX THIS PERIOD. CURRENT BAND OF SCTD STORMS OVER THE LWR RIO GRANDE VLY LIKELY IS BEING FOSTERED BY LOW LVL WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT ATOP AFOREMENTIONED SFC FRONT. THE STORMS IN THE SRN PORTION OF THE BAND LIKELY WILL BECOME MORE NEARLY SFC-BASED AS SFC HEATING DESTABILIZES REGION LATER THIS MORNING. WITH AMPLE SHEAR ALREADY IN PLACE FOR SUPERCELLS...SETUP MAY POSE A RISK FOR TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL/LOCALLY DMGG WIND. LATER TODAY ANOTHER ROUND OF SVR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INVOF THE FRONT AND IN EXIT REGION OF STRENGTHENED S/SSELY LLJ IN THE SRN HILL COUNTRY AND/OR THE AREA NEAR DEL RIO. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES...AND CONTINUED LOW LVL MOISTURE INFLOW...STRONG INSTABILITY WILL EXIST ACROSS REGION...WITH SBCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000-2500 J/KG. COUPLED WITH 50+ KT WSWLY DEEP SHEAR AND INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT E OF APPROACHING UPR LOW...SETUP COULD YIELD A FAIRLY CONCENTRATED AREA OF STRONG TO SVR SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS. THESE COULD PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL...DMGG WIND...AND TORNADOES. OTHER SVR STORMS MAY FORM ON THE NRN MEXICAN MOUNTAINS AND MOVE E INTO S TX. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD EVOLVE INTO A SIZABLE MCS...WITH EMBEDDED FORWARD-PROPAGATING SEGMENTS EXTENDING A RISK FOR SVR WIND...HAIL...AND POSSIBLY ISOLD TORNADOES TO THE TX CSTL PLN THIS EVE. PARTS OF S CNTRL TX TO THE CNTRL TX GULF CST MAY REQUIRE UPGRADE TO MDT RISK AS THE MOST LIKELY STORM MODE AND AREA OF AFTN STORM DEVELOPMENT BECOME MORE APPARENT. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SVR STORMS MAY AFFECT PARTS OF DEEP S TX AND THE MIDDLE/UPR TX CSTL PLN THROUGH FRI AS LOW LVL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO REGION BENEATH FAVORABLE UPR DIFLUENCE. ...SERN FL THIS AFTN... AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES MAY SUPPORT ISOLD TO WIDELY SCTD TSTMS THIS AFTN...PRIOR TO ONSET OF MORE STRONGLY SUBSIDENT MID-LVL THIS EVE. RELATIVELY STEEP LOW LVL LAPSE RATES AND RICH MOISTURE /PW AOA 1.50 INCHES AND SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F/ MAY FOSTER LOCALLY STRONG/POSSIBLY SVR DOWNDRAFTS AND PERHAPS HAIL GIVEN 25-30 KT WLY MID LVL FLOW. ...NRN PLNS LATE THIS AFTN/EVE... LOW-LVL MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE DAKOTAS LATER TODAY/TNGT ATTENDANT TO NRN RCKYS UPR TROUGH. SFC HEATING WILL NEVERTHELESS DESTABILIZE REGION NEAR THE FRONT...AND LIKELY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG OR...MORE LIKELY...IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TODAY INTO TNGT. A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF SFC-BASED STORMS DO INDEED DEVELOP...GIVEN STEEP PRE FRONTAL LOW LVL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE MEAN WIND FIELD. ATTM...HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN SUCH A SCENARIO REMAINS TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUSION OF SVR WIND PROBABILITIES. ..CORFIDI/GARNER.. 05/10/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 That is not a surprise to see the much stronger wording and hatched areas added...and the upgrade to 5% tor. Seems like a very good potential setup if this early morning DMC clears out sufficiently for better afternoon instability. This might be the last good setup in quite a while... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 Extremely tough call this morning. Morning convection has blown southeastern most Texas but I think east of Del Rio has good potential. Thoughts anyone? And congrats B-I, a well deserved position! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 Extremely tough call this morning. Morning convection has blown southeastern most Texas but I think east of Del Rio has good potential. Thoughts anyone? And congrats B-I, a well deserved position! Thanks! Where are you at now? I am thinking farther E and S somewhere near the I-37 corridor south of San Antonio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 I take that back. May take a mwhile for action to make it that far E...maybe I-35 corridor SW of San Antonio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 1001 AM CDT THU MAY 10 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN LA SALLE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS * UNTIL 1030 AM CDT * AT 1001 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BASEBALL SIZE HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF WOODWARD...OR 10 MILES EAST OF BIG WELLS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... MILLET... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 i liked the 0z gfs late in the run but seems a hiccup so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtticaFanatica Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 I've been reading how most people are almost ready to give up on the severe season. In some respects this reminds of 2010, and the Vortex 2 project where they had trouble finding tornado's in the plain states. Their funding would allow them to be active up until June 1st or there about. But after June 1st all hell broke out up here in the Upper Mississippi Valley, and they missed that. I have a gut feeling (no science behind it), that this is possible again this year. Of course I don't think anything is even remotely possible this year compared to 2010 when MN had 48 tornado's on June 17th. However I do think the baroclinic (sp) zone will set up over the northern plains from the end of May through the end of June. So I would say this, north of the I-80 corridor could be very active during the next 6- 8 weeks. Could it extend into southern Canada? my guess is yes. For storm chasers I hope I'm right, for those that could be impacted I hope I'm wrong. The upper Mississippi valley was not in the V2 domain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtticaFanatica Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 There is an old saying for their 2010 year. If you want to see a tornado, go AWAY from the VORTEX 2 Armada. Pretty dumb saying. Off the top of my head, V2 sampled tornadoes on: 12 May 2010 18 May 2010 19 May 2010 25 May 2010 13 June 2010 and there are probably others I'm forgetting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 TOR Watch issued for S Central and S TX until 8:00 PM CDT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 almost all the individual storms in s tx are rotating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 1235 PM CDT THU MAY 10 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CENTRAL LA SALLE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS... * UNTIL 115 PM CDT * AT 1234 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO OVER CENTRAL LA SALLE COUNTY...OR 18 MILES SOUTHEAST OF COTULLA...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM AND HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF A LARGE AND DAMAGING TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... RURAL LA SALLE COUNTY... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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