reber500 Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 Yeah, but that generally means nothing regarding May, last year had a very widespread outbreak in Mid April and then two more massive outbreaks in Late April and Late May... I was just making a simple comparison... (That year had a big April Outbreak, this year had a Big April Outbreak, that year didn't have any May Outbreak, this year hasn't a Big May Outbreak so far...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 Last year was quiet too until all hell broke loose from the 20th through the 25th... Although for general severe across the country, mid May 2008 was quite active (I'm sure JoMo knows what I'm referring to), this one for the next week and a half (or more) looks to have very little period across the CONUS... May 2008 was a pretty Active Month, at least by a weekly basis... Considering we had an Early May Outbreak which produced 62-Tornadoes, A Mid-May Outbreak which produced 147 Tornadoes, and a Late-May Outbreak which produced 234 Tornadoes, and then we had another Mid/ Early June Outbreak which produced 136 Tornadoes... Without a doubt, May 2008 was a fairly active La Nina month that favored areas east of the Plains until the last week. By contrast, this month is going to be very quiet everywhere for the next week or two, at least. From a chaser's point of view, though, May 2008 was fairly worthless up until the 22nd. A few brave souls willing to battle the Ozarks and Ouachitas saw some of the impressive dryline supercells on 10 May (JoMo will remember that one), but that was about it. For traditional Chase Alley, the pattern was disgusting up until the last week, so that's the comparison I was trying to make. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 7, 2012 Author Share Posted May 7, 2012 I was just making a simple comparison... (That year had a big April Outbreak, this year had a Big April Outbreak, that year didn't have any May Outbreak, this year hasn't a Big May Outbreak so far...) No, I realize that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reber500 Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 No, I realize that. I knew that you realized what I was talking about, I was just clarifying... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 7, 2012 Author Share Posted May 7, 2012 Gotta love "Potential Too Low" Day 4-8 outlooks in the heart of May... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reber500 Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 Oh yeah... "Potential Too Low" on SPC 4-8 day Outlook.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 Last May was awful for the first 14-21 days. Watch the PBS documentary on last yr and watch NWS guys note its historical low. People were just still into April 27 they did not notice as much maybe. You can count "potential" which was still few and far between but then by that metric this May is way better than last May so far. Some of the same issues too--blocky pattern (rex block for like half of last may).. even when things got better there was an EC trough limiting moisture return. Can't focus too much on a few day period of quiet.. sure if it stretches to two weeks it's not necessarily "normal" for May. But there really is no daily avg for tornadoes even if May/June are pretty close to having a CONUS tornado 8 of 10 or 9 of 10 days on avg. These things tend to balance themselves out. An EC ridge is usually assured by Memorial Day weekend. Something will crop up by then if not before. The 22-23 is probably ripe as I'll be on a plane back from Tokyo before heading to the Plains. My guess is this yr ends up about avg -- and after last yr anything will seem "quiet" overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 Last May was awful for the first 14-21 days. Watch the PBS documentary on last yr and watch NWS guys note its historical low. People were just still into April 27 they did not notice as much maybe. You can count "potential" which was still few and far between but then by that metric this May is way better than last May so far. Some of the same issues too--blocky pattern (rex block for like half of last may).. even when things got better there was an EC trough limiting moisture return. Can't focus too much on a few day period of quiet.. sure if it stretches to two weeks it's not necessarily "normal" for May. But there really is no daily avg for tornadoes even if May/June are pretty close to having a CONUS tornado 8 of 10 or 9 of 10 days on avg. These things tend to balance themselves out. An EC ridge is usually assured by Memorial Day weekend. Something will crop up by then if not before. The 22-23 is probably ripe as I'll be on a plane back from Tokyo before heading to the Plains. My guess is this yr ends up about avg -- and after last yr anything will seem "quiet" overall. 2004 was very similar. Very quiet up until about May 19th, then gangbusters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 SPC upped tor chance to 5% in southwest TX. Cold front making its way, now over north central Texas. We'll be waiting southwest of Abilene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 SPC upped tor chance to 5% in southwest TX. Cold front making its way, now over north central Texas. We'll be waiting southwest of Abilene. Good luck! That region of TX has pulled out a few nice surprises so far this year, so I have a good feeling about your chances of seeing something worthwhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0743 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1240 PM CDT MON MAY 07 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE PECOS VALLEY/EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION OF SOUTHWEST TX CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 071740Z - 071915Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT SUMMARY...STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DISCUSSION...MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO RECENT STORM DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST OF SAN ANGELO. THIS APPEARS TO BE NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF A SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT...AND THE DRY LINE...WHERE THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS BECOMING STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH INSOLATION BENEATH VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ONGOING CONVECTION MAY NOT YET BE SURFACE BASED...BUT A ZONE OF PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR/ SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH OF SAN ANGELO COULD BECOME THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFYING STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 20-22Z. ONCE THIS OCCURS...THOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR IS WEAK...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AT LEAST LARGE HAIL INITIALLY. ..KERR.. 05/07/2012 ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 ^^ Watch issued. Deep layer shear weak, under 30 knots, but 3500 to 4000 J/Kg MLCAPE per SPC mesoanalysis, and a clear boundary on SJT radar approaching freshly severe warned cells from the Northeast, maybe they'll there'll be some local excitement around San Angelo today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 Entering San Angelo now. We'll try to position ourselves for the southernmost cells that develop. Cells west of us already producing quarter sized hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 No idea the tilt angle, but the free SJT NWS radar site showing some rotation the county to the West of Tom Green. Irion, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 Positioned south of cell... Rotation appearing on radar again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 some others with wxbug out this week ended up in ohio.. why they'd go there is beyond me. i guess maybe they were in ill y-day? s tx can be an interesting play at times.. at least there are storms. accuwx is calling for a summer of death ridge. hopefully that's not met summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 Disorganized MCS now south of San Angelo, outflow dominant. Heading to Iraan / Fort Stockton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 some others with wxbug out this week ended up in ohio.. why they'd go there is beyond me. i guess maybe they were in ill y-day? s tx can be an interesting play at times.. at least there are storms. accuwx is calling for a summer of death ridge. hopefully that's not met summer. Not anything like last year, I'd almost be willing to bet. The upper air pattern is polar opposite of what we down here were experiencing at this time last year. Further W into the Great Basin...perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 Not anything like last year, I'd almost be willing to bet. The upper air pattern is polar opposite of what we down here were experiencing at this time last year. Further W into the Great Basin...perhaps. more focused on the rockies to high plains. ring of fire from Minn to the mid-Atlantic. "less rainy than spring" in your area. i can't remember the last time they got a seasonal forecast right tho... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 Disorganized MCS now south of San Angelo, outflow dominant. Heading to Iraan / Fort Stockton. Good luck man, looks like S Texas will be the place to be the next couple to three days. I had chosen Eldorado for a forecast point today for severe hail. Agreed, it looked like an outflow dominant day with the very low LCLs and high CAPE/low shear environment. If you include surface - 8 km shear, there could be marginal supercells....but it doesn't look like that is being realized yet. Happy chasing today, hope you you see something worthwhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 Nice couplet on a TW storm in the Hill Country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 7, 2012 Author Share Posted May 7, 2012 2004 was very similar. Very quiet up until about May 19th, then gangbusters. 5/12/04 was a good day, Attica and Harper, KS tornadoes (and a host of others). Also, found this on another board, thought it was a fairly good description of what this next week and however many more days is basically saying to chasers (and it's a pretty good meme to boot, one may recall a quote from a certain movie regarding a particular extremity of a deity)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 Trying to intersect the southernmost western cell here Hoping it gets more shear when intersects the OFB from the San Angelo MCS. Also looks to be tracking away from the other cells north or it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 You'll note SPC also expanded the 2% to this area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 540 PM CDT MON MAY 07 2012 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0529 PM TORNADO 4 SE CASTELL 30.67N 98.91W 05/07/2012 LLANO TX LAW ENFORCEMENT TORNADO REPORT BY THE SHERIFF ON COUNTY ROAD 105. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 But we got wxmann for that Come to the dark side I'd say it's probably the latter, considering the Leap Day and 3/2 systems were the only ones it seems to have really shunted the ridge at all over the past several months. The 4/14 system, for example, had a very intense jet max (90-100+ kts at H5, 120+ at H3/H25), but the stubbornness of the ridge probably prevented it from realizing its true potential (although we still ended up with one of the bigger Plains outbreaks in awhile) and also helped to screw up the setup across the GL/Upper MS Valley the next day... I would think that too, but 2007 also had an anomalously strong SE ridge and we still got big events (3/28, 4/21(?), 5/4-5, etc). So the ridge can't be the only answer. Something about the stuff that's coming ashore from the Pacific... Last May was awful for the first 14-21 days. Watch the PBS documentary on last yr and watch NWS guys note its historical low. People were just still into April 27 they did not notice as much maybe. You can count "potential" which was still few and far between but then by that metric this May is way better than last May so far. Some of the same issues too--blocky pattern (rex block for like half of last may).. even when things got better there was an EC trough limiting moisture return. Can't focus too much on a few day period of quiet.. sure if it stretches to two weeks it's not necessarily "normal" for May. But there really is no daily avg for tornadoes even if May/June are pretty close to having a CONUS tornado 8 of 10 or 9 of 10 days on avg. These things tend to balance themselves out. An EC ridge is usually assured by Memorial Day weekend. Something will crop up by then if not before. The 22-23 is probably ripe as I'll be on a plane back from Tokyo before heading to the Plains. My guess is this yr ends up about avg -- and after last yr anything will seem "quiet" overall. This is mostly true, and nature tends to balance itself out over both medium and long timescales. And I think we will still get severe weather events before July. But over the last couple of decades, post-Nina or 2nd year Nina springs have generally had lackluster Mays (see 2009, 2006, 2000 to an extent), and the balance argument would favor a below-average spring after 2011. And if the ridge has been the problem, the approach of summer is not going to help. So I wouldn't be surprised if this was the start of a lengthy down period. On the other hand, who knows... things can switch on a dime just like they did last year. But if I were a betting man... May 22-23 has been extremely ripe for tornadoes in the past decade (Joplin, Bowdle, Hallam, Quinter). I wouldn't be surprised if something happened then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 8, 2012 Author Share Posted May 8, 2012 I would think that too, but 2007 also had an anomalously strong SE ridge and we still got big events (3/28, 4/21(?), 5/4-5, etc). So the ridge can't be the only answer. Something about the stuff that's coming ashore from the Pacific... 5/4-5 and 3/28 that year were similar to the setup from 3/17-18 this year (deep meridional troughs with similar orientation). As such, they were probably close to subjectively "busting" as this year's event did, just did not have quite the vort max, sfc setup and shortwave structure that either of those two events that ended as significant outbreaks did (plus the outflow boundary from the slow moving convection which screwed up tornadic potential on the 18th). So I wouldn't be surprised if this was the start of a lengthy down period. Well, that's certainly not what chasers want to hear... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 Come to the dark side I would think that too, but 2007 also had an anomalously strong SE ridge and we still got big events (3/28, 4/21(?), 5/4-5, etc). So the ridge can't be the only answer. Something about the stuff that's coming ashore from the Pacific... This is mostly true, and nature tends to balance itself out over both medium and long timescales. And I think we will still get severe weather events before July. But over the last couple of decades, post-Nina or 2nd year Nina springs have generally had lackluster Mays (see 2009, 2006, 2000 to an extent), and the balance argument would favor a below-average spring after 2011. And if the ridge has been the problem, the approach of summer is not going to help. So I wouldn't be surprised if this was the start of a lengthy down period. On the other hand, who knows... things can switch on a dime just like they did last year. But if I were a betting man... May 22-23 has been extremely ripe for tornadoes in the past decade (Joplin, Bowdle, Hallam, Quinter). I wouldn't be surprised if something happened then. It's not a good sign to have a jet so flipping weak like progged for the next two weeks this early in May. It only gets weaker from here, folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 8, 2012 Author Share Posted May 8, 2012 GFS has seemed to want to drop a trough across the west in the extended range for the past few runs (with various tracks after that), we'll see if anything comes out of it (grasping at straws here)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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