Superstorm93 Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Velocities aren't impressive at all on the cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Looks like it just roped out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 I live near Emporia... So per me... (They weren't lowerings to really think much about not a whole lot of rotation, but they were there...) Ah, got ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 696 WWUS53 KEAX 062323 SVSEAX SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 623 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012 KSC091-062345- /O.CON.KEAX.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-120506T2345Z/ JOHNSON KS- 623 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL JOHNSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS UNTIL 645 PM CDT... AT 620 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR OLATHE...AND MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...SIGNIFICANT HOUSE AND BUILDING DAMAGE POSSIBLE. MOBILE HOMES COMPLETELY DESTROYED IF HIT. SOME TREES UPROOTED OR SNAPPED. VEHICLES WILL LIKELY BE THROWN BY TORNADIC WINDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Tornado seems to have dissipated completely per SpotterNetwork Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 From a subjective chasing-based perspective, I strongly agree. The pattern has been quite active with unseasonably-rich moisture available on the synoptic scale for most of the spring so far. What we have to show for all the "good parameter" days is relatively unimpressive. The recurring theme, in my eyes, has been troughs that hold back too far to the W of the target. The secondary problem has been BL moisture mixing out well beyond model forecasts. Both occurred yesterday. April 14 was the saving grace for most chasers' sanity, or at least mine. It fell perhaps one peg short of my expectations during the daylight portion of the event, but was still one of the better dryline outbreaks you'll see that early in the year. Aside from that day, it has largely been an exhausting train of teases and low-payoff events... many of those with 50-100+ green SpotterNetwork icons returning home in disgrace at sunset. It's time for a break... and we're certainly getting one now, like it or not. Actually, that does bring up a point which I had forgotten in my first reply to Buckeye. Going back to even February, we've had a lot of wasted *potential* this year, where the trough just didn't eject right. A lot of cutoffs and pieces of energy have been hanging back in the SW US ever since last Fall. I wonder if the Pacific jet just hasn't been as energetic this year, or if the ridging in the central and eastern U.S. has been anomalously strong (which explains the thermonuclear EMLs in the past few setups). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 Actually, that does bring up a point which I had forgotten in my first reply to Buckeye. Going back to even February, we've had a lot of wasted *potential* this year, where the trough just didn't eject right. A lot of cutoffs and pieces of energy have been hanging back in the SW US ever since last Fall. I wonder if the Pacific jet just hasn't been as energetic this year, or if the ridging in the central and eastern U.S. has been anomalously strong (which explains the thermonuclear EMLs in the past few setups). Pretty much the entire late summer/fall/winter that was the general pattern. Really it took a couple freak deep PV's to break the streak near the end of winter. I still can't think of the last classic leeside Colorado Low. The two aforementioned PV's (one was end of February) were hybrids and somewhat rare occurrences. We may have to wait until fall at the rate we are going. April 14th was somewhat of a fluke too...from a cyclogenesis standpoint...it actually ejected in a relatively junky fashion...although it was great for the severe threat in terms of the vertical wind shear profile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reber500 Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 Anybody seeing some Rotation Southwest of Emporia? It looks pretty nice on Radar... Has a hook, with some rotation... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 Pretty much the entire late summer/fall/winter that was the general pattern. Really it took a couple freak deep PV's to break the streak near the end of winter. I still can't think of the last classic leeside Colorado Low. The two aforementioned PV's (one was end of February) were hybrids and somewhat rare occurrences. We may have to wait until fall at the rate we are going. April 14th was somewhat of a fluke too...from a cyclogenesis standpoint...it actually ejected in a relatively junky fashion...although it was great for the severe threat in terms of the vertical wind shear profile. Wait until fall for what exactly? A decent system or an actual decent severe threat in general? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 Wait until fall for what exactly? A decent system or an actual decent severe threat in general? Oh it was just me thinking out loud...mostly just a pessimistic view given the way the past 9 months have gone weather wise in the plains. I am mostly talking about a perfect trough/wave ejection, not necessarily a convective pattern. My thought has no basis is science or forecasting though, so take it with a grain of salt. I used to be extremely weather pessimistic until I joined these forums and became active. I need to get back to that weather pessimism mode. I think the weather weenie approach has hurt my forecast abilities. In fact, I was such a weather pessimist people on these boards hated me because I would always point out what could go wrong instead of celebrate the day 7 weenie storms the models would spit out. I need to get back to that approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 Any other reports / confirmation of that TOG near Emporia north of Wichita 6:30 pm today? We were on I35 just south of Wichita at that time riding along the weak cold front, looked like mostly low stratocumulus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reber500 Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 Any other reports / confirmation of that TOG near Emporia north of Wichita 6:30 pm today? We were on I35 just south of Wichita at that time riding along the weak cold front, looked like mostly low stratocumulus. Nope... I live near Emporia, and didn't see/ hear of any TOG... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 Nope... I live near Emporia, and didn't see/ hear of any TOG... Reed Timmer on his facebook page has photos of a funnel near Olathe KS, briefly was on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 Any other reports / confirmation of that TOG near Emporia north of Wichita 6:30 pm today?We were on I35 just south of Wichita at that time riding along the weak cold front, looked like mostly low stratocumulus. I watched it on a live stream, it was on the ground for about a minute. PD, KMBC chopper and multiple chasers confirmed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reber500 Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 Reed Timmer on his facebook page has photos of a funnel near Olathe KS, briefly was on the ground. Emporia is 100 Miles away from Olathe... Olathe is a suburb of Kansas City... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 Emporia is 100 Miles away from Olathe... Olathe is a suburb of Kansas City... Ah he's talking about a different cell. I don't think there even was a TW down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 Oh it was just me thinking out loud...mostly just a pessimistic view given the way the past 9 months have gone weather wise in the plains. I am mostly talking about a perfect trough/wave ejection, not necessarily a convective pattern. My thought has no basis is science or forecasting though, so take it with a grain of salt. I used to be extremely weather pessimistic until I joined these forums and became active. I need to get back to that weather pessimism mode. I think the weather weenie approach has hurt my forecast abilities. In fact, I was such a weather pessimist people on these boards hated me because I would always point out what could go wrong instead of celebrate the day 7 weenie storms the models would spit out. I need to get back to that approach. Haha I know what that is like. My sometimes unreasonable pessimism can rub people the wrong way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reber500 Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 Ah he's talking about a different cell. I don't think there even was a TW down there. He mentioned a TOG near Emporia, North of Wichita around 6:30PM... That's why I mentioned Emporia... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 He mentioned a TOG near Emporia, North of Wichita around 6:30PM... That's why I mentioned Emporia... My mistake, there was a cell near Emporia but never any funnel or TOG. So far: Miles driven: 600 Supercells seen: 0 We are headed to Texas. The southwest flow off the ULL may give the best chance tomorrow and best cape looks like in central Texas. Making the best of a bad week to chase... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 Nice OFB on storms west of Dallas: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 7, 2012 Author Share Posted May 7, 2012 I used to be extremely weather pessimistic until I joined these forums and became active. I need to get back to that weather pessimism mode. I think the weather weenie approach has hurt my forecast abilities. In fact, I was such a weather pessimist people on these boards hated me because I would always point out what could go wrong instead of celebrate the day 7 weenie storms the models would spit out. I need to get back to that approach. But we got wxmann for that I wonder if the Pacific jet just hasn't been as energetic this year, or if the ridging in the central and eastern U.S. has been anomalously strong (which explains the thermonuclear EMLs in the past few setups). I'd say it's probably the latter, considering the Leap Day and 3/2 systems were the only ones it seems to have really shunted the ridge at all over the past several months. The 4/14 system, for example, had a very intense jet max (90-100+ kts at H5, 120+ at H3/H25), but the stubbornness of the ridge probably prevented it from realizing its true potential (although we still ended up with one of the bigger Plains outbreaks in awhile) and also helped to screw up the setup across the GL/Upper MS Valley the next day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reber500 Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 My mistake, there was a cell near Emporia but never any funnel or TOG. So far: Miles driven: 600 Supercells seen: 0 We are headed to Texas. The southwest flow off the ULL may give the best chance tomorrow and best cape looks like in central Texas. Making the best of a bad week to chase... Man, I feel really sorry for you... You accidentally picked the worst May EVER to go chasing in the Plains-- and just everywhere in general-- This is going to be a Historically quite may... Although I wouldn't be surprised if we see a MASSIVE Outbreak sometime in Late May/ Early June, but that is just a guess, no science is put into that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 7, 2012 Author Share Posted May 7, 2012 Man, I feel really sorry for you... You accidentally picked the worst May EVER to go chasing in the Plains-- and just everywhere in general-- This is going to be a Historically quite may... Although I wouldn't be surprised if we see a MASSIVE Outbreak sometime in Late May/ Early June, but that is just a guess, no science is put into that. 2009 was worse (At least for the Plains)...as I'm sure several people here will concur with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 Man, I feel really sorry for you... You accidentally picked the worst May EVER to go chasing in the Plains-- and just everywhere in general-- This is going to be a Historically quite may... Although I wouldn't be surprised if we see a MASSIVE Outbreak sometime in Late May/ Early June, but that is just a guess, no science is put into that. Memories of 2009 are creeping back, dark times for the chasing community. Anyone have any guess if we are in for this for the long haul or just 2 weeks or so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 I have no complaints about the lack of severe weather. Bring on the snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 2009 was worse (At least for the Plains)...as I'm sure several people here will concur with. The jury is still out on that. There were a few decent/marginal events at the beginning of that month, and then absolutely *nothing* after May 13. The next noteworthy event on the Plains was Goshen Co., WY, on June 5. I want to believe that we can recover in the last week or two of this May. Odds are strongly against the doldroms persisting through the 31st, though 2009 did show it to be possible. Cliche as it may be, it only takes one or two events to completely change everyone's perception of a given month (or even season). If the last week of May is similar to the last week of May 2008 (also quiet out here from 2 May to 22 May), it will be remembered as a fairly good chase month, even if the middle 75% is crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reber500 Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 2009 was worse (At least for the Plains)...as I'm sure several people here will concur with. It happened that year too where there was a pretty sizable Tornado Outbreak in mid April (like this year)... And then almost nothing after that besides a BIG Derecho on May 8th, which also spawned 39 Tornadoes.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 7, 2012 Author Share Posted May 7, 2012 If the last week of May is similar to the last week of May 2008 (also quiet out here from 2 May to 22 May), it will be remembered as a fairly good chase month, even if the middle 75% is crap. Last year was quiet too until all hell broke loose from the 20th through the 25th... Although for general severe across the country, mid May 2008 was quite active (I'm sure JoMo knows what I'm referring to), this one for the next week and a half (or more) looks to have very little period across the CONUS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 7, 2012 Author Share Posted May 7, 2012 It happened that year too where there was a pretty sizable Tornado Outbreak in mid April (like this year)... Yeah, but that generally means nothing regarding May, last year had a very widespread outbreak in Mid April and then two more massive outbreaks in Late April and Late May... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reber500 Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 The jury is still out on that. There were a few decent/marginal events at the beginning of that month, and then absolutely *nothing* after May 13. The next noteworthy event on the Plains was Goshen Co., WY, on June 5. I want to believe that we can recover in the last week or two of this May. Odds are strongly against the doldroms persisting through the 31st, though 2009 did show it to be possible. Cliche as it may be, it only takes one or two events to completely change everyone's perception of a given month (or even season). If the last week of May is similar to the last week of May 2008 (also quiet out here from 2 May to 22 May), it will be remembered as a fairly good chase month, even if the middle 75% is crap. May 2008 was a pretty Active Month, at least by a weekly basis... Considering we had an Early May Outbreak which produced 62-Tornadoes, A Mid-May Outbreak which produced 147 Tornadoes, and a Late-May Outbreak which produced 234 Tornadoes, and then we had another Mid/ Early June Outbreak which produced 136 Tornadoes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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