Baroclinic Zone Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 can always count on the NAM Just a little overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 Looking forward to a tropical, humid day tomorrow with PM storms..Won't be shocked if there's some small hailers around humid and tropical? hardly. looks like dews in the mid to upper 50s correction: looked at some of the wrong stations, could see lower 60s across much of CT. DOH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 50F at tolland on mesowest. Man I hope it gets into the mid-upper 60s warn sector today like kev thought..... We thought it would be Wednesday and Thursday. Now it might even push 70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 We thought it would be Wednesday and Thursday. Now it might even push 70 Yep I called for 70-72 a few days/pages back. Good stuff with a muggy feel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 The warm sector really doesn't get into SNE until late Tuesday..you'll be near 60F Tuesday and shoot up on Wednesday I think...maybe 70-72F? Bump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 last minute NW trend? the gfs, nam, and euro all bring the offshore precip further inland than previous runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 gfs is a pretty good soaking region-wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 last minute NW trend? the gfs, nam, and euro all bring the offshore precip further inland than previous runs gfs is a pretty good soaking region-wide. Yeah what's up with that? That's a decent shift. Trough deeper on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 last minute NW trend? the gfs, nam, and euro all bring the offshore precip further inland than previous runs gfs is quite a bit sharper/deeper aloft vs the 00z run. end up with more of the region under favorable jet structure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 We end up with Kevin's favorite part of the jet circulation....the rear entrance region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 Not buying it yet. Let's wait and see what the Euro does. I'd guess still keeps it a Cape Cod deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 'Steady rain withsome wind and cool temps. Die torch die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 Not buying it yet. Let's wait and see what the Euro does. I'd guess still keeps it a Cape Cod deal 00z came in wetter than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 I could see the euro ticking west a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 12z UKMET appears well east of the GFS. The good rain looks like it stays over eastern parts of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 12z UKMET appears well east of the GFS. The good rain looks like it stays over eastern parts of SNE. That's what the Euro had too. Looks like rain shield gets to SE Mass, and maybe into RI but not farther west than that. Euro usually mirrors Ukie..so that seems most likely scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 It will also depend on hwo convection sets up, and any sort of anafrontal type rains that try to develop as low pressure tries to form overhead. That's always kind of tough to decipher if convection develops along with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 That's what the Euro had too. Looks like rain shield gets to SE Mass, and maybe into RI but not farther west than that. Euro usually mirrors Ukie..so that seems most likely scenario euro actually gave you more precip on the 00z run than yesterday's 12z did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 euro actually gave you more precip on the 00z run than yesterday's 12z did. I wonder if most of that was convection? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 GEFS are wet too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 euro actually gave you more precip on the 00z run than yesterday's 12z did. Why waste your time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 Also, while the pattern may warm up more towards the end of the month, I see no big heat in site at all right now. Eh there's a lot of room for growth there, though... The 90-day mean torque anomalies have remained negative, and with an ~ -.3 correlation coefficient with the AO, a positive (contraction north of the westerlies and +subtropic ridge) AO is thus a reasonable fit; seeing that the current AO teleconnection is fairly tightly clustered to over +1 SD suggests that the ambient geopotential medium should be on the rise through that period. We more than less see at least that much taking place in these runs. The NAO counterpart completely reverses into positive domain status by just 7 days from now. It seems - to me - that over the last decade, if we get the medium into any kind of a state conducive to milder appeals, what actually ends up in the books is that warmth over performs. It's a bit of an intangible, admittedly, therefore not overwhelmingly scientific, but that undeniable reality sees a 580dm height with 13C at 850mb, with a continental wind as being pretty damn warm; and that should be around few times between the 15th and 30th of the month. Now, if a more exacting ridge results in there? more... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 Eh there's a lot of room for growth there, though... The 90-day mean torque anomalies have remained negative, and with an ~ -.3 correlation coefficient with the AO, a positive (contraction north of the westerlies and +subtropic ridge) AO is thus a reasonable fit; seeing that the current AO teleconnection is fairly tightly clustered to over +1 SD suggests that the ambient geopotential medium should be on the rise through that period. We more than less see at least that much taking place in these runs. The NAO counterpart completely reverses into positive domain status by just 7 days from now. It seems - to me - that over the last decade, if we get the medium into any kind of a state conducive to milder appeals, what actually ends up in the books is that warmth over performs. It's a bit of an intangible, admittedly, therefore not overwhelmingly scientific, but that undeniable reality sees a 580dm height with 13C at 850mb, with a continental wind as being pretty damn warm; and that should be around few times between the 15th and 30th of the month. Now, if a more exacting ridge results in there? more... Well what I mean is that while we will see warm wx at times...likely accompanied by higher TDs...I don't see a pattern that drives a heat dome into the East. I see a persistant weak troughing signal in the east through the period. Now what I could see, is periods with higher humidity, but possibly accompanied by rain like tomorrow. It probably will end up warmer than normal me thinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 Why waste your time What is your deal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 Well what I mean is that while we will see warm wx at times...likely accompanied by higher TDs...I don't see a pattern that drives a heat dome into the East. I see a persistant weak troughing signal in the east through the period. Now what I could see, is periods with higher humidity, but possibly accompanied by rain like tomorrow. It probably will end up warmer than normal me thinks. Ryan's high dew fetish FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 Euro is west too now. Decent rains for ern mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 Ryan's high dew fetish FTW That doesn't mean we won't have ne winds as well...this setup has that potential too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 Euro is west too now. Decent rains for ern mass. How far west though? I mean does it make much diff for areas west of ORH into NYC and Jersey? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 Just finished my third of 5 exams..ugh. Just looked over the GFS and it seems like the low that wants to spin up basically does so over that frontal boundary SE of New England. Just seems a little fishy when the low tries to develop above 40N and it expands that much precip that far west to the NY border. The trough is for sure sharper this run, but I mean it'd need to be a little sharper for western NE to have to worry I think. Maybe from Ginx on eastward would get signifcant rain from the GFS...it actually looks kind of convective is you loop it on EWALL. How much different does the EURO look from the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 How far west though? I mean does it make much diff for areas west of ORH into NYC and Jersey? Total QPF for you is around 0.8" or so from now through Thursday aftn. That's vs 00z which was maybe 0.45" or so. But, I could see some wiggle room here or there so don't take it verbatim...but it did moisten you up a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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