weatherwiz Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Could be some elevated convection tonight and tomorrow. I could see some elevated storms with the warm front lifting through the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 I could see some elevated storms with the warm front lifting through the area. Yeah I could see some tstms/heavy rain in srn CT.RI and ern MA..especially SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Euro is very warm thru day 10. Wow Looks like things will be fairly warm beginning on Thursday with temps probably averaging above-normal. However, I think the more extreme of the warmth will stay off to our west. The upcoming pattern though looks awfully dry with not much in the way of rain chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Looks like things will be fairly warm beginning on Thursday with temps probably averaging above-normal. However, I think the more extreme of the warmth will stay off to our west. The upcoming pattern though looks awfully dry with not much in the way of rain chances. It's been a big fear of many of us..that we are in for a terrible drought..and it looks like it's showing itself with todays event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Big heat stays by ORD, but looks mild to warm next week. Maybe some shwrs or tstms to start Mem weekend as WF comes through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 It's been a big fear of many of us..that we are in for a terrible drought..and it looks like it's showing itself with todays event We're good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Yeah I could see some tstms/heavy rain in srn CT.RI and ern MA..especially SE MA. I would think the best timeframe would be between 0z and perhaps 6-8z as this is when the nose of the LLJ will drive into the region and there looks to be some weak elevated instability across the region, especially southern zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 May looking to finish above normal for SNE. It won't die 11 months straight at least. And that is despite starting off cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 May looking to finish above normal for SNE. It won't die 11 months straight at least. And that is despite starting off cool No surprise. It's looked like that for a while now. I thought 0.5F-1.5F for this area...won't be too far off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 It's been a big fear of many of us..that we are in for a terrible drought..and it looks like it's showing itself with todays event The one thing I'm kind of worried about is now that we are getting into mid to late May we can kind of see how the pattern is going to setup for the summer, or at least the first part of summer. If the models are correct with regards to the pattern over the next 10-14 days (and there is some pretty strong model agreement) looks like major ridging could be the player for much of the central/eastern Us this summer. Now, we may not get extreme heat but this would yield to weaker fronts which would mean less in the way of precip chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 May looking to finish above normal for SNE. It won't die 11 months straight at least. And that is despite starting off cool We seriously may have only had one below-average month in the past 18 months or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Scott, You don't think rain will be an issue for the Red Sox game today do you? I kind of believe everything should be fine with perhaps a shower or two but just want to see your opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Scott, You don't think rain will be an issue for the Red Sox game today do you? I kind of believe everything should be fine with perhaps a shower or two but just want to see your opinion. Should be good through 6pm I think. Maybe some shwrs towards the end of the game, but I think you're good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Should be good through 6pm I think. Maybe some shwrs towards the end of the game, but I think you're good. Sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 The one thing I'm kind of worried about is now that we are getting into mid to late May we can kind of see how the pattern is going to setup for the summer, or at least the first part of summer. If the models are correct with regards to the pattern over the next 10-14 days (and there is some pretty strong model agreement) looks like major ridging could be the player for much of the central/eastern Us this summer. Now, we may not get extreme heat but this would yield to weaker fronts which would mean less in the way of precip chances. I don't think it looks all that dry with the big heat ridge to the west. With that, could be a few bouts of shwrs/tstms. It's not a wet pattern, but not the driest pattern either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 I don't think it looks all that dry with the big heat ridge to the west. With that, could be a few bouts of shwrs/tstms. It's not a wet pattern, but not the driest pattern either. What we would have to watch for in that type of pattern is when you see stronger pieces of s/w energy and s/w troughs that develop around the northern tier of the country around the upper mid-west...this is what would probably give us out best chances for rain/storms...we'll probably want to see cold fronts come at us more from the NW rather than W b/c there would be a lesser chance of them weakening/drying out. This is how you can also get some pretty decent severe wx events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 I'd suggest everyone get their a/c units in this weekend. You will need them next week and beyond Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted May 15, 2012 Author Share Posted May 15, 2012 As expected........ 0.0 inches of rain since midnight .03 event total dooom and gloooom fail. Well above normal weather is palpable. Join the positive team, turn that frown upside down and embrace the incredible weather that begins on Thursday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted May 15, 2012 Author Share Posted May 15, 2012 I'd suggest everyone get their a/c units in this weekend. You will need them next week and beyond Agreed.............KFS1 has been upgraded and its resolution is better than ever....................KFS1 is gonna rock you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 As expected........ 0.0 inches of rain since midnight .03 event total dooom and gloooom fail. Well above normal weather is palpable. Join the positive team, turn that frown upside down and embrace the incredible weather that begins on Thursday! Yesterday, today, and tomorrow will feature mostly cloudy to cloudy skies with rain developing...it's not exactly beautiful. But, temps will be pleasant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted May 15, 2012 Author Share Posted May 15, 2012 Yesterday, today, and tomorrow will feature mostly cloudy to cloudy skies with rain developing...it's not exactly beautiful. But, temps will be pleasant. Far from the washout, .03 of rain is pathetic so far, might be a split around here as the nam was advertising, now way to spin it, far cry from what was originally modeled. KFS1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 I'd suggest everyone get their a/c units in this weekend. You will need them next week and beyond We never even took our A/C out of the kitchen window after the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Far from the washout, .03 of rain is pathetic so far, might be a split around here as the nam was advertising, now way to spin it, far cry from what was originally modeled. KFS1 LOL, no it isn't but whatever makes you happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Ended up dry yesterday at home. I suspected it would but hoped a stray shower would come through. Looks good for tonight into tomorrow though. High was 73F yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted May 15, 2012 Author Share Posted May 15, 2012 LOL, no it isn't but whatever makes you happy. Seriously, how so Scott? Rain has been very scattered? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 I want to go back to this... 4:30am, the start of another work day. 1,550ft Base of Mansfield -5F 25G40 Drifts up to 7-8 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted May 15, 2012 Author Share Posted May 15, 2012 NWS Upton has dropped heavy rain from the forecast and lowered rain totals for tonight here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Seriously, how so Scott? Rain has been very scattered? Because you guys as well as BOS were never supposed to get much at all until this whole plume moves east. We all said it would set up west first and give them the most. Now it will shift east and you'll get some rain later today and tonight. I mentioned yesterday most areas will get 0.5"-1.5". I could see some areas getting 2-3" ad maybe some areas a little less than 0.5". This time of year when rains become more convective and we lose the more synoptic type lows...it becomes feast or famine. But lets not jump to conclusions. I think this is behaving as was modeled in the last 2-3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted May 15, 2012 Author Share Posted May 15, 2012 Because you guys as well as BOS were never supposed to get much at all until this whole plume moves east. We all said it would set up west first and give them the most. Now it will shift east and you'll get some rain later today and tonight. I mentioned yesterday most areas will get 0.5"-1.5". I could see some areas getting 2-3" ad maybe some areas a little less than 0.5". This time of year when rains become more convective and we lose the more synoptic type lows...it becomes feast or famine. But lets not jump to conclusions. I think this is behaving as was modeled in the last 2-3 days. Areas near you got pounded with heavy downpours yesterday, Nam has been hinting at the best forcing west then redeveloping further east missing out on parts of the region. I think a fair number to throw around for the south coast is .4-.8 for the total 3 day event, with some higher numbers possible by the cape. Here comes the heat, what a 5 day stretch coming.....still think it might be the best of the warm season, time will tell. Just hoping that BOS can make a run at +3-+4 for the month, the other sites will be well above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Areas near you got pounded with heavy downpours yesterday, Nam has been hinting at the best forcing west then redeveloping further east missing out on parts of the region. I think a fair number to throw around for the south coast is .4-.8 for the total 3 day event, with some higher numbers possible by the cape. Here comes the heat, what a 5 day stretch coming.....still think it might be the best of the warm season, time will tell. Just hoping that BOS can make a run at +3-+4 for the month, the other sites will be well above normal. Well no question it will be warm at times going forward. I just hope that with the main heat dome to the west...we aren't dealing with hung up fronts nearby. That's a problem that can sometimes happen...but something tough to pin down this far out. I think with the warm, they'll be a few cold fronts coming through as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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