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May weather discussion


Mr Torchey

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I posted Main stems at normal, soil normal, reservoir full yea no science Tip.

The region is in D1 and D2 drought status. You said there was no drought.

Now you are back-peddling; either that, or being too stubborn to see logic, reason, and fact

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This is an interesting gesture from Cisco today: "CHOSE THE EUROPEAN CENTRE GUIDANCE FOR THE MANUAL BLEND TO CAPITALIZE ON ITS BETTER SURFACE PRESSURE VERIFICATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS...PARTICULARLY AT THE DAY 6 AND 7 TIME FRAME"

He speaks of the surface pressure ... that is different from the height fields in the strictest sense. The ECMWF has been atrocious in the latter over the last sever months; often to the point of distraction and annoyance did it perform with flat out discontinuity, flip flopping enormously on mass-fields. The GFS kicked its tale on a few occasions...

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This is an interesting gesture from Cisco today: "CHOSE THE EUROPEAN CENTRE GUIDANCE FOR THE MANUAL BLEND TO CAPITALIZE ON ITS BETTER SURFACE PRESSURE VERIFICATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS...PARTICULARLY AT THE DAY 6 AND 7 TIME FRAME"

He speaks of the surface pressure ... that is different from the height fields in the strictest sense. The ECMWF has been atrocious in the latter over the last sever months; often to the point of distraction and annoyance did it perform with flat out discontinuity, flip flopping enormously on mass-fields. The GFS kicked its tale on a few occasions...

From what I've read, I believe the EC is back to doing well in the 5 day verification.

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Up to date SCIENCE!

b1d2757c.jpg

I will be interested in seeing what U.S. Drought Monitor puts out here on Thursday, during their weekly re-release. The thing that makes this interesting for me is that we were region-wide deluged by 3-4" of rain in that single coastal event 2 weeks ago, and the drought gauges showed some recovery but not much - now, we get all of 1.5" last week and it is suddenly eradicated?

Having succumbed to 3 months sear, then getting some rains in the first 2 weeks of May is real precarious - if the region were to settle into heat now, what we have gained would be lost real quick. I'm hoping we get a couple of nights with some down pours!

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From what I've read, I believe the EC is back to doing well in the 5 day verification.

Well, taken fwiw - haha - seriously, my own observations have it that the operational ECMWF keeps taking innocuous waves in the mid/U/A over the upper MW and southern Canada, and drilling them into cut-offs and or massive trough incursions into New England - it isn't abundantly clear where it's been getting the dynamic power to do so, seemingly out of nowhere. It quite literally looks like the model's physics are flawed and it is thus over-creating wave strength.

The 00z run compared to the 12z run, nicely demonstrates it's still doing the same damn thing.

Look at the 00z depiction at 144 hours; there's feeble weakness in the heights over the Dakotas and adjacent areas, with some weak vorticity fields that are unorganized. 2 days later the run's got about a 45 concentrated vortmax embedded in a DP OV trough, with 850's below 0C knifing all the way down to Boston. I have seen this model do that between D4.5 and 7 quite often since the middle of March and it's not been very successful. Now look at the 12z run across those same intervals -- that backing off process will continue if recent model performance persists.

Granted...over the whole of the nation it may be doing "better", but that's a pretty big observable error that it keeps repeating, and one that affects specifically, us.

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I will be interested in seeing what U.S. Drought Monitor puts out here on Thursday, during their weekly re-release. The thing that makes this interesting for me is that we were region-wide deluged by 3-4" of rain in that single coastal event 2 weeks ago, and the drought gauges showed some recovery but not much - now, we get all of 1.5" last week and it is suddenly eradicated?

Having succumbed to 3 months sear, then getting some rains in the first 2 weeks of May is real precarious - if the region were to settle into heat now, what we have gained would be lost real quick. I'm hoping we get a couple of nights with some down pours!

This helped, modeling is wet coming up too.

02c4e3e0.jpg

f715e601.jpg

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I don't get to see the UKMET's other products, but these 50,000 foot view heights and pressure charts alone give the impression that the retrograding feature of the D5-6 (12z run) is a tropical system. The Canadian has a kind of tropical and or feedback type system coming N too, and yesterday, NCEP noted that some of the products used from the other guidance types were signaling some favorable deep layer conditions for early season tropical development. Could be interesting to monitor the Bahamas over the next week.

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Thur-Mon the nicest 5 day stretch of the warm season?

Not for not, but nothing will beat this last Saturday and Sunday; it may happen one week in some galaxy long, long ago and far, far away, but getting 5 days in row of that seems physically not possible.

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Not for not, but nothing will beat this last Saturday and Sunday; it may happen one week in some galaxy long, long ago and far, far away, but getting 5 days in row of that seems physically not possible.

We can hope, and agreed with this past weekend, for now at least that 5 day stretch looks to be pretty outrageous.

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I don't get to see the UKMET's other products, but these 50,000 foot view heights and pressure charts alone give the impression that the retrograding feature of the D5-6 (12z run) is a tropical system. The Canadian has a kind of tropical and or feedback type system coming N too, and yesterday, NCEP noted that some of the products used from the other guidance types were signaling some favorable deep layer conditions for early season tropical development. Could be interesting to monitor the Bahamas over the next week.

Interesting, thanks for that.

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That was crazy and almost too early unless you were skiing and partying it up in Maine:).....

Worked outside all day, actually not too bad, random showers and cloudy. A little muggy but NBD. Got another one graduating from college this weekend. Heavy heavy fire pit and party incoming. Missing one horseshoe out of theset, Grandkids FTL. Horseshoe pit refreshed with clay, ready for some Sam Seasonal.

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