Tstorm723 Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 .31" in 10 mins here in Leicester. Thought for sure it was going to thunder but nadda. Nice to see some convection...can't remember the last storm we had...back in March I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 I go outside and not look at data a week old. there hasn't been appreciable rains since the May 8 posting - the status hasn't changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 I posted Main stems at normal, soil normal, reservoir full yea no science Tip. The region is in D1 and D2 drought status. You said there was no drought. Now you are back-peddling; either that, or being too stubborn to see logic, reason, and fact Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 there hasn't been appreciable rains since the May 8 posting - the status hasn't changed. Tip there was 1-4 inches of rain region wide 8-10 th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 Up to date SCIENCE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 Gun to head sox game tonight did I waste a ton of skrill All systems go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 This is an interesting gesture from Cisco today: "CHOSE THE EUROPEAN CENTRE GUIDANCE FOR THE MANUAL BLEND TO CAPITALIZE ON ITS BETTER SURFACE PRESSURE VERIFICATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS...PARTICULARLY AT THE DAY 6 AND 7 TIME FRAME" He speaks of the surface pressure ... that is different from the height fields in the strictest sense. The ECMWF has been atrocious in the latter over the last sever months; often to the point of distraction and annoyance did it perform with flat out discontinuity, flip flopping enormously on mass-fields. The GFS kicked its tale on a few occasions... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 This is an interesting gesture from Cisco today: "CHOSE THE EUROPEAN CENTRE GUIDANCE FOR THE MANUAL BLEND TO CAPITALIZE ON ITS BETTER SURFACE PRESSURE VERIFICATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS...PARTICULARLY AT THE DAY 6 AND 7 TIME FRAME" He speaks of the surface pressure ... that is different from the height fields in the strictest sense. The ECMWF has been atrocious in the latter over the last sever months; often to the point of distraction and annoyance did it perform with flat out discontinuity, flip flopping enormously on mass-fields. The GFS kicked its tale on a few occasions... From what I've read, I believe the EC is back to doing well in the 5 day verification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 Skies just let loose in Wrentham. WOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 Up to date SCIENCE! I will be interested in seeing what U.S. Drought Monitor puts out here on Thursday, during their weekly re-release. The thing that makes this interesting for me is that we were region-wide deluged by 3-4" of rain in that single coastal event 2 weeks ago, and the drought gauges showed some recovery but not much - now, we get all of 1.5" last week and it is suddenly eradicated? Having succumbed to 3 months sear, then getting some rains in the first 2 weeks of May is real precarious - if the region were to settle into heat now, what we have gained would be lost real quick. I'm hoping we get a couple of nights with some down pours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 From what I've read, I believe the EC is back to doing well in the 5 day verification. Well, taken fwiw - haha - seriously, my own observations have it that the operational ECMWF keeps taking innocuous waves in the mid/U/A over the upper MW and southern Canada, and drilling them into cut-offs and or massive trough incursions into New England - it isn't abundantly clear where it's been getting the dynamic power to do so, seemingly out of nowhere. It quite literally looks like the model's physics are flawed and it is thus over-creating wave strength. The 00z run compared to the 12z run, nicely demonstrates it's still doing the same damn thing. Look at the 00z depiction at 144 hours; there's feeble weakness in the heights over the Dakotas and adjacent areas, with some weak vorticity fields that are unorganized. 2 days later the run's got about a 45 concentrated vortmax embedded in a DP OV trough, with 850's below 0C knifing all the way down to Boston. I have seen this model do that between D4.5 and 7 quite often since the middle of March and it's not been very successful. Now look at the 12z run across those same intervals -- that backing off process will continue if recent model performance persists. Granted...over the whole of the nation it may be doing "better", but that's a pretty big observable error that it keeps repeating, and one that affects specifically, us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 I will be interested in seeing what U.S. Drought Monitor puts out here on Thursday, during their weekly re-release. The thing that makes this interesting for me is that we were region-wide deluged by 3-4" of rain in that single coastal event 2 weeks ago, and the drought gauges showed some recovery but not much - now, we get all of 1.5" last week and it is suddenly eradicated? Having succumbed to 3 months sear, then getting some rains in the first 2 weeks of May is real precarious - if the region were to settle into heat now, what we have gained would be lost real quick. I'm hoping we get a couple of nights with some down pours! This helped, modeling is wet coming up too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 I don't get to see the UKMET's other products, but these 50,000 foot view heights and pressure charts alone give the impression that the retrograding feature of the D5-6 (12z run) is a tropical system. The Canadian has a kind of tropical and or feedback type system coming N too, and yesterday, NCEP noted that some of the products used from the other guidance types were signaling some favorable deep layer conditions for early season tropical development. Could be interesting to monitor the Bahamas over the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JJBASHB Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 This morning was nice, made it to the mid 60's with a few breaks of sun. Got caught running in the heavy rain. Felt good - muggy and slightly tropical. Much nicer than low 40's, fog and sheet drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted May 14, 2012 Author Share Posted May 14, 2012 Thur-Mon the nicest 5 day stretch of the warm season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 Thur-Mon the nicest 5 day stretch of the warm season? Not for not, but nothing will beat this last Saturday and Sunday; it may happen one week in some galaxy long, long ago and far, far away, but getting 5 days in row of that seems physically not possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted May 14, 2012 Author Share Posted May 14, 2012 Not for not, but nothing will beat this last Saturday and Sunday; it may happen one week in some galaxy long, long ago and far, far away, but getting 5 days in row of that seems physically not possible. We can hope, and agreed with this past weekend, for now at least that 5 day stretch looks to be pretty outrageous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 I don't get to see the UKMET's other products, but these 50,000 foot view heights and pressure charts alone give the impression that the retrograding feature of the D5-6 (12z run) is a tropical system. The Canadian has a kind of tropical and or feedback type system coming N too, and yesterday, NCEP noted that some of the products used from the other guidance types were signaling some favorable deep layer conditions for early season tropical development. Could be interesting to monitor the Bahamas over the next week. Interesting, thanks for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 We can hope, and agreed with this past weekend, for now at least that 5 day stretch looks to be pretty outrageous. Hope so, best five day stretch so far was the March mega heat wave. Tan needs work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted May 14, 2012 Author Share Posted May 14, 2012 Hope so, best five day stretch so far was the March mega heat wave. Tan needs work. That was crazy and almost too early unless you were skiing and partying it up in Maine:)..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 That was crazy and almost too early unless you were skiing and partying it up in Maine:)..... Worked outside all day, actually not too bad, random showers and cloudy. A little muggy but NBD. Got another one graduating from college this weekend. Heavy heavy fire pit and party incoming. Missing one horseshoe out of theset, Grandkids FTL. Horseshoe pit refreshed with clay, ready for some Sam Seasonal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 About 0.3" here so far from that last batch...seems to be done for a while, though Enough to cancel practice, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 Nice quick downpour here. Rather chilly now 52F. High was 61 at Logan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 Almost in Boston, looks rainy. Wore shorts and a tee ftl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 Nice quick downpour here. Rather chilly now 52F. High was 61 at Logan. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted May 14, 2012 Author Share Posted May 14, 2012 overcast 66.4 0.03 rain today high of 71 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 71 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 Nice quick downpour here. Rather chilly now 52F. High was 61 at Logan. There's a kind of diffused boundary in place... A lot of ENE trajectories and chill over east/NE zones... low to mid 60 back here still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 Does traffic always suck this bad getting into bos?! Man life must suck for you flatlanding city slickers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 Does traffic always suck this bad getting into bos?! Man life must suck for you flatlanding city slickers... Except when your boonie azz gets in the city and sees the talent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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