Damage In Tolland Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 Some decent MU CAPE on the CHH sounding. Maybe one of those cases where cells form along the remnant boundary retreating back north? Mesoscale models and NAM hint at this. Probably something like +RA with a few strikes perhaps. Pike north mostly though right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 Mostly cloudy and muggy. 66/60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 That was taken before last week's rain. Should be a lot less orange in ern mass. ? That was taken on the 8th - so split perhaps. And last week only produced paltry amounts - that was mostly drab weather over meaningful uptake. Also, these assessments aren't correctable that way. They are longer term and hydrology is an integrated science where time-span and totals, combined with measurement, are formulaic against climo. We are not correct much from last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 Some decent MU CAPE on the CHH sounding. Maybe one of those cases where cells form along the remnant boundary retreating back north? Mesoscale models and NAM hint at this. Probably something like +RA with a few strikes perhaps. I'm heading toward Boston in a bit for the Sox game tonight, hope it stays decent out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 Recent IR imagery suggests broad area warming in the cloud fields. Getting into May and June through early August... The sun can "burn off" more than just llv strata. We have pale sun no cutting through here in eastern areas, and indeed, sat confirms there are some slots opening up. It's interesting to see the overnight precipitation "fill in" as it did, and now the diurnal heating is underway and it gets eroded as warming the air from the top down from powerful insolation tends stablize things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 Halfway thru the month and this is where we now stand........... bos-0.3 bdl+0.7 pvd 0 orh +0.5 Farther north: CON...+0.2 PWM...-0.2 BGR...-0.4 CAR...-1.1 ... Was milder early (had sun, while 40s IMBY) but stayed CL this weekend. I'm running 2F below my 14-yr mean, with 9 of 13 days below avg. Local river is back under the 25th percentile, though rainfall has been just fine starting with the 2.7" in late April. This week's forecast of 1-2" should make things just right for planting the cool wx crops late week. The 26F on 5/6 appears to have stunted the ash buds w/o killing them; no elongation until Sat-Sun 71-70 got them going. Sat morning's 28 did no damage, as the buds 10-20' off the ground were several degrees less cool than at my thermometer. Tilled the garden Sat, incorporating a pickup load of turkey poo, then offloaded a larger load of much wetter/heavier (with a large still-frozen chunk) horse manure in a pile, to further compost this summer while growing pumpkins and spaghetti squash. Now that the rains have arrived and some warmer wx, looks like some ideal gardening time coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 Pike north mostly though right? Develops in nrn CT area near MA border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 ? That was taken on the 8th - so split perhaps. And last week only produced paltry amounts - that was mostly drab weather over meaningful uptake. Also, these assessments aren't correctable that way. They are longer term and hydrology is an integrated science where time-span and totals, combined with measurement, are formulaic against climo. We are not correct much from last week. Last week was a genera; 1-4" with 4" down the Cape..but most of the area had 1-2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 It's legitimately SUNNY out, wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 Last week was a genera; 1-4" with 4" down the Cape..but most of the area had 1-2". 4" on the Cape is impressive, no doubt - but it didn't penetrate where it is needed most, and 1-2" is not compensatory in this situation - sorry. it's not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 Develops in nrn CT area near MA border. I am sure you guys must have hit on this ... but with the insolation working to burn off even some of this mid and high level murk, there is marginal instability likely to develop in the area today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 Funny ... no sooner do I post a statement that even hints at convection, and SPC has us carved out of any hope - I guess they figure that S component will marine death ray us... I think from their perspective, however ...well, I should rather say it "seems" (I am less than certain) that they focus on nexuses where large scale ascent is collocated with diabatic instability/theta-e pooling and all that fun physics... That's doesn't really atone for unsuspecting wedges of clearing that throw up a 500 pts of CAPE, if perhaps poorly modeled, combined with oreographics...local scale study type stuff. Eh, we'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 Halfway thru the month and this is where we now stand........... bos-0.3 bdl+0.7 pvd 0 orh +0.5 There was an article today in the Hampshire Gazette about the "cool spring" threatening to put an early end to asparagus season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 4" on the Cape is impressive, no doubt - but it didn't penetrate where it is needed most, and 1-2" is not compensatory in this situation - sorry. it's not. Well 1-2" is a substantial amount. All I'm saying is that ern areas where the drought was worst, got a nice helping of rain last week. More to come this week..perhaps wrn MA being the winners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 4" on the Cape is impressive, no doubt - but it didn't penetrate where it is needed most, and 1-2" is not compensatory in this situation - sorry. it's not. No need to get snippy with Scooter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 Funny ... no sooner do I post a statement that even hints at convection, and SPC has us carved out of any hope - I guess they figure that S component will marine death ray us... I think from their perspective, however ...well, I should rather say it "seems" (I am less than certain) that they focus on nexuses where large scale ascent is collocated with diabatic instability/theta-e pooling and all that fun physics... That's doesn't really atone for unsuspecting wedges of clearing that throw up a 500 pts of CAPE, if perhaps poorly modeled, combined with oreographics...local scale study type stuff. Eh, we'll see... Yeah we aren't saying tstms everywhere, but some cells could pop in nrn CT and up into NE MA perhaps..maybe very near BOS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 Looks like Joe is getting poured on along the gold coast in SW CT..Cobalt blue rains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 Another 5star morning, while light rain falls to the north. Work is a go, no rain here, no delays, and its warm 64 degrees and humid. Looks like we get in on the rain on Tuesday. Thur-Mon look amazing, simply amazing with sunshine and temps approaching 80 degrees.............boobs beers and bbq for the win. Oops KBDR 141452Z 19005KT 5SM -RA BKN048 OVC060 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 Looks like Joe is getting poured on along the gold coast in SW CT..Cobalt blue rains Nah, another 5 star morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 sky's lightened a smidge here, but still dank and a little raw. Good shawl weather. 58.3/55, .08". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 sky's lightened a smidge here, but still dank and a little raw. Good shawl weather. 58.3/55, .08". Dude 58-59 /55 is warm and muggy..esp in May... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 sun is out and it is muggy ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 just noticed theres some storms firing in southern ct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 No need to get snippy with Scooter Nice try Kevina - No, I'm not saying 1-2" of rain is insignificant; I'm saying that it isn't compensating for the background drought. Ginxy was "foot down" exclaiming there is no drought - not that it matters in the grand scheme of things, but if we want to be involved with a community of enthusiasts and professionals in any discipline (for that matter), there should be at least some semblance of science in play. Science oft' comes across as bold and cold and "snippy" for those not entirely objective. Trust me, Scott is the biggest doiche waggon on the planet! ahahhahahahahah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 Yeah we aren't saying tstms everywhere, but some cells could pop in nrn CT and up into NE MA perhaps..maybe very near BOS? At least for me, I wasn't honestly expecting ...pretty much any direct sun today. The RH fields in the NAM were up to 90% in the various R1 ...R3 layers, which is usually sock in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 Nice try Kevina - No, I'm not saying 1-2" of rain is insignificant; I'm saying that it isn't compensating for the background drought. Ginxy was "foot down" exclaiming there is no drought - not that it matters in the grand scheme of things, but if we want to be involved with a community of enthusiasts and professionals in any discipline (for that matter), there should be at least some semblance to science in play. Science oft' comes across as bold and cold and "snippy" for those not entirely objective. Trust me, Scott is the biggest doiche waggon on the planet! ahahhahahahahah LOL, that's a new one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 At least for me, I wasn't honestly expecting ...pretty much any direct sun today. The RH fields in the NAM were up to 90% in the various R1 ...R3 layers, which is usually sock in time. No I didn't expect much either. A bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 If it were not for this weakness off the SE US coast causing the surface pressure pattern to buckle north, ...this UKMET depiction off the 00z run would have a heat wave developing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 Looks like some downpours and maybe a banger headed right for mi casa in Tolland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 14, 2012 Share Posted May 14, 2012 Looks like some downpours and maybe a banger headed right for mi casa in Tolland Forming as modeled too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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