May weather discussion

[CoastalWx]

Just humid with scattered showers/thunderstorms Mon-Wed..certainly no deluge or washout..typical early summer weather

Is that what the KFS has? Those days won't get out of the 60s...the days with rain falling that is.

[wxmanmitch]

As a bit of a tree geek (yes, I am a weather geek too in case you couldn't tell), the only type of maples that really bother me are the Norway Maples and maybe the Silver Maples. Norway Maples, which were introduced from Europe, tolerate urban environments extremely well, grow fast, produce many helicopter seeds, and weed-like offspring. They were introduced because they're a hearty, fast growing, graceful shade tree. Since being introduced, however, Norway Maples have escaped cultivation forming a monoculture of trees in vacant city lots, along property lines, and have begun taking over woodlands just outside of cities and towns, crowding out native species. Woe to the soul who brought Norway Maples to the US.

The Silver Maple is another one of those trees that produces tons of helicopters. Silver maples usually release their helicopters in late spring. Unfortunately they are larger in size than the Norway Maple and plug gutters even more easily. Native to eastern North America, they can grow to be massive trees very quickly. They are a hazard due to their size, shallow roots, and brittle wood. Judging from the photos, it looks like the tree Ryan took down was a Silver Maple. Good decision, you don't want one of these near your home.

The native sugar maple and red maple (not really red except during the fall and when first leafing out in the spring) tend to produce smaller quantities of helicopter seeds that are not as large in size and are both an indicator tree species in New England forests (sugar maple more so in CNE and NNE, red maple more in SNE). I wish I had some oak trees....at least acorns don't clog gutters.

Anyhow, nice morning after a low temperature of 39° F. Upslope rains ended around 11 PM. I am expecting frost in parts of the area tonight, especially in places like Pete's glen in West Chesterfield where readings could dip close to freezing. I will probably have about 36-37° F.

[Damage In Tolland]

As a bit of a tree geek (yes, I am a weather geek too in case you couldn't tell), the only type of maples that really bother me are the Norway Maples and maybe the Silver Maples. Norway Maples, which were introduced from Europe, tolerate urban environments extremely well, grow fast, produce many helicopter seeds, and weed-like offspring. They were introduced because they're a hearty, fast growing, graceful shade tree. Since being introduced, however, Norway Maples have escaped cultivation forming a monoculture of trees in vacant city lots, along property lines, and have begun taking over woodlands just outside of cities and towns, crowding out native species. Woe to the soul who brought Norway Maples to the US.

The Silver Maple is another one of those trees that produces tons of helicopters. Silver maples usually release their helicopters in late spring. Unfortunately they are larger in size than the Norway Maple and plug gutters even more easily. Native to eastern North America, they can grow to be massive trees very quickly. They are a hazard due to their size, shallow roots, and brittle wood. Judging from the photos, it looks like the tree Ryan took down was a Silver Maple. Good decision, you don't want one of these near your home.

The native sugar maple and red maple (not really red except during the fall and when first leafing out in the spring) tend to produce smaller quantities of helicopter seeds that are not as large in size and are both an indicator tree species in New England forests (sugar maple more so in CNE and NNE, red maple more in SNE). I wish I had some oak trees....at least acorns don't clog gutters.

Anyhow, nice morning after a low temperature of 39° F. Upslope rains ended around 11 PM. I am expecting frost in parts of the area tonight, especially in places like Pete's glen in West Chesterfield where readings could dip close to freezing. I will probably have about 36-37° F.

LOL..No you don't. Be careful what you wish for..Trust me

[CoastalWx]

As a bit of a tree geek (yes, I am a weather geek too in case you couldn't tell), the only type of maples that really bother me are the Norway Maples and maybe the Silver Maples. Norway Maples, which were introduced from Europe, tolerate urban environments extremely well, grow fast, produce many helicopter seeds, and weed-like offspring. They were introduced because they're a hearty, fast growing, graceful shade tree. Since being introduced, however, Norway Maples have escaped cultivation forming a monoculture of trees in vacant city lots, along property lines, and have begun taking over woodlands just outside of cities and towns, crowding out native species. Woe to the soul who brought Norway Maples to the US.

The Silver Maple is another one of those trees that produces tons of helicopters. Silver maples usually release their helicopters in late spring. Unfortunately they are larger in size than the Norway Maple and plug gutters even more easily. Native to eastern North America, they can grow to be massive trees very quickly. They are a hazard due to their size, shallow roots, and brittle wood. Judging from the photos, it looks like the tree Ryan took down was a Silver Maple. Good decision, you don't want one of these near your home.

The native sugar maple and red maple (not really red except during the fall and when first leafing out in the spring) tend to produce smaller quantities of helicopter seeds that are not as large in size and are both an indicator tree species in New England forests (sugar maple more so in CNE and NNE, red maple more in SNE). I wish I had some oak trees....at least acorns don't clog gutters.

Anyhow, nice morning after a low temperature of 39° F. Upslope rains ended around 11 PM. I am expecting frost in parts of the area tonight, especially in places like Pete's glen in West Chesterfield where readings could dip close to freezing. I will probably have about 36-37° F.

You put it well. Norway maples are a plague. Just horrible. My neighbor is probably going to cut the two he has..even if it means no trees. That's how bad they are.

[Ginx snewx]

Agree, billions in the air yesterday, messing up my newly mulched beds, get in gutters they suck.

Well, looks like these next three days are about as good as it gets, looking forward to a little beach time........finally.  Looks like another week of water incoming, gfs was pretty depressing.

Speaking of gutters, when they replaced my roof they left off the gutter guards so the rock debris could wash down. I was supposed to put them back up in the spring, oops, that and a grandson who likes to hit tennis balls , stuck in gutter, overflowed yesterday. Gutter cleaning last night, hate them friggin Cottonwoods.

[CoastalWx]

Weeklies still show no siggy heat through early June. However, they argue slightly above normal.

[Ginx snewx]

Weeklies still show no siggy heat through early June. However, they argue slightly above normal.

It would be just fantastic if we could go an entire summer without a heat wave with high dews. (95/55) is fine with me.

[CoastalWx]

It would be just fantastic if we could go an entire summer without a heat wave with high dews. (95/55) is fine with me.

I wish, but we will. This is an AGW nightmare. A pattern of no extremes. Oh noes...no crazy tornado outbreaks and heatwaves!

[Ginx snewx]

Is that what the KFS has? Those days won't get out of the 60s...the days with rain falling that is.

0z euro has 1.5-2.5 inches of rain next week.

[Ginx snewx]

I wish, but we will. This is an AGW nightmare. A pattern of no extremes. Oh noes...no crazy tornado outbreaks and heatwaves!

They will explain it off. Climate models are on par with KFS.

[CoastalWx]

0z euro has 1.5-2.5 inches of rain next week.

We'll have higher dews for Kevin, but I think it's a little more than sct shwrs.

[Damage In Tolland]

Ugh...May 2005. Disaster.

Gonna be close to 80 tomorrow I think Steve. Then the rains cometh big time next week.

Dude. May 2005 was the worst May in history with cold, backdoorism and rain /drizle/noreasters/temps in the 40's for weeks.

Next week looks nothing like that..Just a stalled warm front to the north with little disturbances rippling thru triggering rounds of downpours/storms...and a muggy south flow...We're not gonna be north of the boundary

[CoastalWx]

Dude. May 2005 was the worst May in history with cold, backdoorism and rain /drizle/noreasters/temps in the 40's for weeks.

Next week looks nothing like that..Just a stalled warm front to the north with little disturbances rippling thru triggering rounds of downpours/storms...and a muggy south flow...We're not gonna be north of the boundary

LOL, what are you talking about? My comment was referring to that horrible month. I didn't say we'll have that.

[Damage In Tolland]

LOL, what are you talking about? My comment was referring to that horrible month. I didn't say we'll have that.

Oh my bad,, I was thinking you were saying we'd be looking at that misery. Can you imagine the death that would be in this thread if we had a springtime month like that again? I still wake up with night terrors from that month.

I remember packing up getting ready to move with an 8 month pregnant wife, and loading up the truck in hvy rain and 38-39 degrees in May..Just brutal

[CoastalWx]

Oh my bad,, I was thinking you were saying we'd be looking at that misery. Can you imagine the death that would be in this thread if we had a springtime month like that again? I still wake up with night terrors from that month.

I remember packing up getting ready to move with an 8 month pregnant wife, and loading up the truck in hvy rain and 38-39 degrees in May..Just brutal

We had one of the best coastal storms that year near Mem weekend..lol. My ex lived on the beach back then, and her step Dad and I went out at 1am to check out high tide. Even some wind damage.

[tamarack]

As a bit of a tree geek (yes, I am a weather geek too in case you couldn't tell), the only type of maples that really bother me are the Norway Maples and maybe the Silver Maples. Norway Maples, which were introduced from Europe, tolerate urban environments extremely well, grow fast, produce many helicopter seeds, and weed-like offspring. They were introduced because they're a hearty, fast growing, graceful shade tree. Since being introduced, however, Norway Maples have escaped cultivation forming a monoculture of trees in vacant city lots, along property lines, and have begun taking over woodlands just outside of cities and towns, crowding out native species. Woe to the soul who brought Norway Maples to the US.

The Silver Maple is another one of those trees that produces tons of helicopters. Silver maples usually release their helicopters in late spring. Unfortunately they are larger in size than the Norway Maple and plug gutters even more easily. Native to eastern North America, they can grow to be massive trees very quickly. They are a hazard due to their size, shallow roots, and brittle wood. Judging from the photos, it looks like the tree Ryan took down was a Silver Maple. Good decision, you don't want one of these near your home.

As a "professional" tree geek, I heartily endorse your sentiments on Norway maple. If we could train the Asian longhorn beetle to invade only Norway maple, I'd support raising the critters so as to eliminate the woody pest. (Unfortunately, ALB is a threat to all hardwoods, as the folks in ORH have learned.)

However, I'm a bit more sympathetic towards silver maple, at least in its native habitat in the NE - riverside floodplain forests. There, it grows fast and huge, often with interesting shape and great den cavities, and its modest shading is nearly perfect to nurture fiddleheads. As a street tree, it's just as you said, and I'd guessed earlier that was Ryan's tree. Studies of ice storm damage show it's easily the 2nd worst for breakage, topped only by Siberian elm, which due to its resistance to Dutch elm disease had massive plantings in midwestern communities after DED ravaged their trees.

Back to wx: Clouds starting to fill in here in AUG, with destructive sunshine building them toward afternoon showers. 06z gfs really sluices NNE next Tues-Fri.

[Brian5671]

we've lucked out this year, that is for sure--we got through March and most of April with great weather....

[Damage In Tolland]

we've lucked out this year, that is for sure--we got through March and most of April with great weather....

The house is on 5th Street

[Ginx snewx]

We had one of the best coastal storms that year near Mem weekend..lol. My ex lived on the beach back then, and her step Dad and I went out at 1am to check out high tide. Even some wind damage.

Oh how I pray for 85/72 Mem day weekend.

[Brian5671]

The house is on 5th Street

that's about 5-6 blocks from us--we're near the ugly 15 story condo building that you can see for miles-someone must have snuck that in pre-zoning laws in the 50's or 60's.

[Typhoon Tip]

Weeklies still show no siggy heat through early June. However, they argue slightly above normal.

I was coming around to the same conclusion for the next little while here (2 weeks or so...).

I looked at the 00z GFS and thought, WOW, 588dm height contour tickling LI by D10, with a ridge axis right over us: That is a SSW 72F DP drip

Regardless of the GFS operational's usual proclivity for evolving a surface pressure pattern that is completely unsupported by the mid levels beyond D4 ... (it's a spring summer bias in this model I've noticed, where when the gradient gets weak overall, it attempts to disconnect the mid levels from the surface), that kind of retrograde building height wall from off the Atlantic is the way to bring the heftier DP air mass.

Then I looked at the 06z GFS operational, and it couldn't be more opposed to that overall thinking in how it closes off (seemingly from no where) a 564dm height core over the MA. Not appreciably deep ... but since the surrounding medium is nearing 580dm, the balanced flow would probably require a cold easterly event for the upper MA and NE regions.

A/B contrast between the two run times.

The 00Z operational Euro is more like the 00Z operational GFS, though - so right off, and notwithstanding the crack pipe factor of the extended that is ALWAYS in play ... one wouldn't venture too far in assuming the 06z GFS version may just possibly be bull****.

I looked over the CMC, then the UKMET ... then the "GOTAKEANAPS" ...

The mind's eye smoothed mean of it all really shows a subtle pattern change. The negative NAO block that has plagued the last couple of clicks of April through this last first week of May is fairly well dismantled at this point. It is one of ...well, the main reason this current trough never succeeded in closing off like the original operational runs had it several days ago. Back when ... the runs held more -NAO -related train wreck in the upper Atlantic latitudes, and that back-logging assisted in carving out modest negative anomalies in the favored counter-balancing spacial geography of the NE/U.S. With the -NAO neutralized, the more standard W-E progression of events in the atmosphere resumes ... and now the trough moves on out. It's why this afternoon and Saturday are going to be probably within the top-10 days of the year; more so tomorrow though. The coolish morning today with a stiff breeze is probably not ideal for some - I like it though!

To make a long story short, which is impossible at this point ... the subtle pattern change is one of lifting heights in the east, while "somewhat" neutralizing the ridge in the west - quasi zonal with tendencies toward positive departures in the east in time. But that rise in the east still allows for the possibility of some stranded dynamics over the deep SE...then meandering around and hopefully providing some daily convection to ease longer duration drought numbers down there. This will probably mean seasonably warm weather for us as we get just on the westerlies side of all that and end up with a continental tendency to the wind field. Should a be 76-82 days in there on a few occasions - though details in the flow that are impossible to pin down notwithstanding, could influence that of course.

So I tend to agree... No "big heat" is signaled. As to the teleconnectors... the PNA is officially entering uselessness. More than just historically inferred correlative values, just look at the R-Wave numbers; there is no way a -1 or +1 PNA means the same thing now as it does from Nov-Apr. To add to that, it neutral now. "N/S" (No Skill) using that as a corrective measure. The NAO, on the other hand, although less correlative, it still holds tentacles through the summer. Because of the shortened wave-lengths over all, however, it isn't abundantly clear whether a -1 versus +1 mean the same thing to the flow tendencies over eastern N/A as they do during said colder months. Compounding that lesser coherence, it, too, is more neutral then anything else.

Bottom line, I think the best way to go about things for the time being is to use the smooth average of the operational runs, which interestingly, seems to jive with the Euro weeklies.

This all said... with the overall circulation system more than less open to vagaries, do to having less the clear driving teleconnector suggestions, a more cohesive appeal one way or the other is almost equally weighted. We could at any time see a better eastern ridge/Sonoran type involvement start to congeal in the runs, or not.

I think for the posting enthusiasts vernacular, we should dub "big heat" to mean "heat wave at 40N", 90+ for 3 days. Although 88/70 persisting can be uncomfortable. I don't really see that either at the current time.

[powderfreak]

Mansfield summit is white today. Must be a bit chilly back home. Torch continues huh?

http://home.comcast.net/~thelahiffsvt/webcam2.jpg

[CoastalWx]

I was coming around to the same conclusion for the next little while here (2 weeks or so...).

I looked at the 00z GFS and thought, WOW, 588dm height contour tickling LI by D10, with a ridge axis right over us: That is a SSW 72F DP drip

Regardless of the GFS operational's usual proclivity for evolving a surface pressure pattern that is completely unsupported by the mid levels beyond D4 ... (it's a spring summer bias in this model I've noticed, where when the gradient gets weak overall, it attempts to disconnect the mid levels from the surface), that kind of retrograde building height wall from off the Atlantic is the way to bring the heftier DP air mass.

Then I looked at the 06z GFS operational, and it couldn't be more opposed to that overall thinking in how it closes off (seemingly from no where) a 564dm height core over the MA. Not appreciably deep ... but since the surrounding medium is nearing 580dm, the balanced flow would probably require a cold easterly event for the upper MA and NE regions.

A/B contrast between the two run times.

The 00Z operational Euro is more like the 00Z operational GFS, though - so right off, and notwithstanding the crack pipe factor of the extended that is ALWAYS in play ... one wouldn't venture too far in assuming the 06z GFS version may just possibly be bull****.

I looked over the CMC, then the UKMET ... then the "GOTAKEANAPS" ...

The mind's eye smoothed mean of it all really shows a subtle pattern change. The negative NAO block that has plagued the last couple of clicks of April through this last first week of May is fairly well dismantled at this point. It is one of ...well, the main reason this current trough never succeeded in closing off like the original operational runs had it several days ago. Back when ... the runs held more -NAO -related train wreck in the upper Atlantic latitudes, and that back-logging assisted in carving out modest negative anomalies in the favored counter-balancing spacial geography of the NE/U.S. With the -NAO neutralized, the more standard W-E progression of events in the atmosphere resumes ... and now the trough moves on out. It's why this afternoon and Saturday are going to be probably within the top-10 days of the year; more so tomorrow though. The coolish morning today with a stiff breeze is probably not ideal for some - I like it though!

To make a long story short, which is impossible at this point ... the subtle pattern change is one of lifting heights in the east, while "somewhat" neutralizing the ridge in the west - quasi zonal with tendencies toward positive departures in the east in time. But that rise in the east still allows for the possibility of some stranded dynamics over the deep SE...then meandering around and hopefully providing some daily convection to ease longer duration drought numbers down there. This will probably mean seasonably warm weather for us as we get just on the westerlies side of all that and end up with a continental tendency to the wind field. Should a be 76-82 days in there on a few occasions - though details in the flow that are impossible to pin down notwithstanding, could influence that of course.

So I tend to agree... No "big heat" is signaled. As to the teleconnectors... the PNA is officially entering uselessness. More than just historically inferred correlative values, just look at the R-Wave numbers; there is no way a -1 or +1 PNA means the same thing now as it does from Nov-Apr. To add to that, it neutral now. "N/S" (No Skill) using that as a corrective measure. The NAO, on the other hand, although less correlative, it still holds tentacles through the summer. Because of the shortened wave-lengths over all, however, it isn't abundantly clear whether a -1 versus +1 mean the same thing to the flow tendencies over eastern N/A as they do during said colder months. Compounding that lesser coherence, it, too, is more neutral then anything else.

Bottom line, I think the best way to go about things for the time being is to use the smooth average of the operational runs, which interestingly, seems to jive with the Euro weeklies.

This all said... with the overall circulation system more than less open to vagaries, do to having less the clear driving teleconnector suggestions, a more cohesive appeal one way or the other is almost equally weighted. We could at any time see a better eastern ridge/Sonoran type involvement start to congeal in the runs, or not.

I think for the posting enthusiasts vernacular, we should dub "big heat" to mean "heat wave at 40N", 90+ for 3 days. Although 88/70 persisting can be uncomfortable. I don't really see that either at the current time.

Yeah pretty much agree John. While heights do rise like you said..I see that pesky type trough possible over the SE which may or may not try to shove moisture up the coast.

[CoastalWx]

I wonder if the thrust of the heavier rain next week is west this time?

[ski MRG]

Agree, billions in the air yesterday, messing up my newly mulched beds, get in gutters they suck.

Well, looks like these next three days are about as good as it gets, looking forward to a little beach time........finally. Looks like another week of water incoming, gfs was pretty depressing.

Ugly nature ruining things for you and Scooter. Horrible nature.

[CoastalWx]

Ugly nature ruining things for you and Scooter. Horrible nature.

Nature sometimes can suck.

[CoastalWx]

GFS is pretty wet most areas.

[Damage In Tolland]

I wonder if the thrust of the heavier rain next week is west this time?

that would mean even more humidity for us and higher temps..FTW

[Damage In Tolland]

I have horrible ugly hair and it's ruining things for me. Horrible hair.

Cut it then and stop complaining

[doug1991]

that would mean even more humidity for us and higher temps..FTW

Ill take it. Just keep the rain as far east as possible. I've seen enough for a while.