Deck Pic Posted June 27, 2012 Author Share Posted June 27, 2012 June 2002 and 2012 are going to end up uncannily similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 June 2002 and 2012 are going to end up uncannily similar And looking ahead to July, here's the 500 mean for 02 & 09: Take a look at 500mb centered around hr 180 on the 12 gfs. GFS really wants to build that ridge around the rockies and wester plains with an overall conus trough/ridge/trough setup. This setup is modeled to stick around a bit too. I don't think there will be many weenies complaining about 02 & 09 popping up as good analogs. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted July 16, 2012 Author Share Posted July 16, 2012 the similarities to 2002 so far are uncanny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted July 27, 2012 Author Share Posted July 27, 2012 http://www.washingto...3qWwT_blog.html Quick Summary: Temperatures June: 2 to 3 degrees above average Not bad, but not great July: Average lol, i just mixed up June and July August: 1 to 2 degrees above average Hard to argue with this Overall: 1 to 2 degrees above average eh..maybe?...could be close Number of 90-degree days for June/July/August: 40-45 (Normal is 31) eh..pretty good possibly Number of 100-degree days: 1-2 lol Longest Streak of 90+: 9-12 days bullseye Precipitation Somewhat below normal (75-80% of normal) solid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted September 5, 2012 Author Share Posted September 5, 2012 http://www.washingto...3qWwT_blog.html Quick Summary: Temperatures June: 2 to 3 degrees above average - July: Average - August: 1 to 2 degrees above average - Overall: 1 to 2 degrees above average - Number of 90-degree days for June/July/August: 40-45 (Normal is 31) - Number of 100-degree days: 1-2 - Longest Streak of 90+: 9-12 days - Precipitation Somewhat below normal (75-80% of normal) - Analogs: 1939, 1976, 1989, 2002 June: 2 to 3 degrees above average - B July: Average - D+ August: 1 to 2 degrees above average - B Overall: 1 to 2 degrees above average - B Number of 90-degree days for June/July/August: 40-45 (Normal is 31) - B+ Number of 100-degree days: 1-2 - C Longest Streak of 90+: 9-12 days - A+ Precipitation Somewhat below normal (75-80% of normal) - A+ Overall Grade - B/B- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 I think the forecast was pretty solid on avg. I still wonder how much utility there is in breaking things down by month tho I suppose there's no going back on that one. You'd end up with a higher score without that though. Only real question is how do you see 1-2 100s a C? 1 is average... 8 is significantly above average. I don't think it really changes anything on the final score.. I think it's at least a B if not higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted September 5, 2012 Author Share Posted September 5, 2012 I think the forecast was pretty solid on avg. I still wonder how much utility there is in breaking things down by month tho I suppose there's no going back on that one. You'd end up with a higher score without that though. Only real question is how do you see 1-2 100s a C? 1 is average... 8 is significantly above average. I don't think it really changes anything on the final score.. I think it's at least a B if not higher. good point...That is just a tidbit and doesnt really matter in terms of grading anyway.... I think the months are standard now...everyone expects it and I think there is some skill there though less of course...there is no going back for better or worse though I always liked the months and thought they added some color to the outlooks in terms of breaking down the narrative...thanks for the feedback...I'll give it a B of course on Cap weather... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 good point...That is just a tidbit and doesnt really matter in terms of grading anyway.... I think the months are standard now...everyone expects it and I think there is some skill there though less of course...there is no going back for better or worse though I always liked the months and thought they added some color to the outlooks in terms of breaking down the narrative...thanks for the feedback...I'll give it a B of course on Cap weather... It was definitely a good forecast overall. Particularly that you stood your ground on it being a top 10 warmest etc. I talked to Jason about it a few weeks ago and he agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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