NaoPos Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 If the HRRR is right there would be embedded strong to severe storms and some training which could lead to pounding. given the current instability shear and high moisture set up it seams possible. By the way for what it is worth radar in NC and Virginia is really starting to organize already a well defined area of heavy rain setting up if trends continue some could really see a surprise in the rain gauge tonight. Images from the hrrr? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 later on this aftn could get interesting in the NW zones: .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WITH THIS UPDATE. POPS STILL HIGHER OVERALL OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. FAR WESTERN ZONES COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH DESTABILIZATION AND A COLD FRONT NEARBY. A FEW MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR SHOW THIS. SBCAPES ACCORDING TO LAPS DATA OVER THE WESTERN ZONES ARE ALREADY UP TO AROUND 500 J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS THEREFORE POSSIBLE THERE...AND WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS NEAR 8-9KFT...SMALL HAIL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EITHER ASIDE FROM A STRONG GUST OR TWO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 Wow big time Eastern Long Island special going on right now. I am right on the edge in Wantagh (SE Nassau) with light rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 As stormspotterlive mentioned, last few runs of the HRRR has been developing convection over near Delaware River, early this evening. The latest run at 16z had solid line of convention. This all gradually weakens closer to NYC metro: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 As stormspotterlive mentioned, last few runs of the HRRR has been developing convection over near Delaware River, early this evening. The latest run at 16z had solid line of convention. This all gradually weakens closer to NYC metro: It wouldn't be surprising if convection does develop west of NYC with the increasing instability west of NYC, but I always use the HRRR with caution, especially considering that in some cases it tends to overdo storm development, as with Friday when the modeled widespread convection north of NYC ended up as partly cloudy skies. This is a different scenario from Friday with more widespread precipitation, although IMO today's thunderstorms west of NYC should end up more scattered than widespread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 The sun came out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 http://radar.weather...101111&loop=yes interestingly enough...no mention of stalled storms during the day but it looks like what storms develop will trail over the same area for quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 id be shocked if we got storms tonight. i always get shafted with storms here on long island. either they weaken before they get to me or they weaken when they get to me and strengthen after they pass east of me ( happens quite alot actually) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 Looks like we get rain tonight...was that suppose to happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 Absolutely dumping about 2 miles north of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 Croton-on-Hudson the winner today. That cell has been there since 3:38pm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 Looks like we get rain tonight...was that suppose to happen? It's been modeled for the last few days... no huge soaking like yesterday's 18z GFS had for some reason (which I'm still confused why the GFS would make such huge changes and reverse them barely 24-36 hours out), but a period of moderate rain and some thunder for a few hours. Quickly looking at the radar it appears that the rain may be heavier/more widespread than modeled, although I'm not completely sure if that is the case or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 that cell is starting to spread its wings to the western burbs of Danbury finally. but the more widespread stuff in VA looks to be heading right for the tri state overnight. and im not sure it was to be expected. upton sounded pretty pessimistic about widespread rains for tonight the past day or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shades Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 The trough axis is shifting east, so will most of the rain now falling over Virginia. It's getting the boot, it'll clip eastern LI, otherwise I don't see how there is any lasting heavy or even moderate rain in NYC. I entirely expect it to be dry much of the night. Please be more efficient and thorough when nowcasting, a radar loop of 2 hours does not cut it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 The trough axis is shifting east, so will most of the rain now falling over Virginia. It's getting the boot, it'll clip eastern LI, otherwise I don't see how there is any lasting heavy or even moderate rain in NYC. I entirely expect it to be dry much of the night. Please be more efficient and thorough when nowcasting, a radar loop of 2 hours does not cut it... If you're referring to my post, I used the radar loop to support that there will be at least a period of rain; I stated nothing about any lasting moderate-heavy rain throughout most of the night. The axis of rain has been constantly shifting east throughout the day and will continue to do so, keeping the heavier rain to the east but still supporting some rain in NYC with the western edge of the moderate rain, currently near DC, moving through later tonight while the heavier rains down in SE VA and Delaware stay to the south/east. The rain will probably move through quickly enough to keep NYC mostly dry during the later overnight hours, but I still expect at least 3 hours of rain tonight, not much less than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 Another heavy storm popped up SW of the original one, near Ramsey. Probably won't be as long lasting as that one but there's still a lot of rain associated with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 The trough axis is shifting east, so will most of the rain now falling over Virginia. It's getting the boot, it'll clip eastern LI, otherwise I don't see how there is any lasting heavy or even moderate rain in NYC. I entirely expect it to be dry much of the night. Please be more efficient and thorough when nowcasting, a radar loop of 2 hours does not cut it... please be more effecient in critique others comments... NYC does not look dry much of the night. in fact, NYC and points E are looking ripe for a few hours of mod rain overnight. WV loop looks pretty good for eastern zones tonight: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_US/animwv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shades Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 If you're referring to my post, I used the radar loop to support that there will be at least a period of rain; I stated nothing about any lasting moderate-heavy rain throughout most of the night. The axis of rain has been constantly shifting east throughout the day and will continue to do so, keeping the heavier rain to the east but still supporting some rain in NYC with the western edge of the moderate rain, currently near DC, moving through later tonight while the heavier rains down in SE VA and Delaware stay to the south/east. The rain will probably move through quickly enough to keep NYC mostly dry during the later overnight hours, but I still expect at least 3 hours of rain tonight, not much less than that. I was mainly referring to runawayiceberglettuce's post. He stated that "the more widespread stuff in VA looks to be heading right for the tri state overnight" it's that what I took contestation of - I don't see any "widespread" rain in NYC proper happening tonight. A couple reports of light-mod rain, sure, I won't discount that, but more directly to your post, I don't think it will be 3+ continuous hours of rain. That makes it sound like a soaking any way you slice it - maybe there will be 3 hourly observation reports of rain (but not raining throughout those 3+ hours). Better to surmise how much you wager will fall? I'll call for under .25" in NYC (unless some convection gets going in the city proper, I don't see much more than that, and would not be surprised of .10" or less). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shades Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 please be more effecient in critique others comments... NYC does not look dry much of the night. in fact, NYC and points E are looking ripe for a few hours of mod rain overnight. There's a lot of holes in that QPF map, and I think it is mainly pointing out convection which won't get equal distribution on the grid and is probably being parsed out wider than it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 I was mainly referring to runawayiceberglettuce's post. He stated that "the more widespread stuff in VA looks to be heading right for the tri state overnight" it's that what I took contestation of - I don't see any "widespread" rain in NYC proper happening tonight. A couple reports of light-mod rain, sure, I won't discount that, but more directly to your post, I don't think it will be 3+ continuous hours of rain. That makes it sound like a soaking any way you slice it - maybe there will be 3 hourly observation reports of rain (but not raining throughout those 3+ hours). Better to surmise how much you wager will fall? I'll call for under .25" in NYC (unless some convection gets going in the city proper, I don't see much more than that, and would not be surprised of .10" or less). failed attempt at humor. at any rate, i will wager on widespread .25+ rains tonight, esp NYC and E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 There's a lot of holes in that QPF map, and I think it is mainly pointing out convection which won't get equal distribution on the grid and is probably being parsed out wider than it seems. not when you take each hour and recognize the forcing along the front as well as the sfc low passing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 There's a lot of holes in that QPF map, and I think it is mainly pointing out convection which won't get equal distribution on the grid and is probably being parsed out wider than it seems. This is a NYC metro subforum, not a NYC subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 I was mainly referring to runawayiceberglettuce's post. He stated that "the more widespread stuff in VA looks to be heading right for the tri state overnight" it's that what I took contestation of - I don't see any "widespread" rain in NYC proper happening tonight. A couple reports of light-mod rain, sure, I won't discount that, but more directly to your post, I don't think it will be 3+ continuous hours of rain. That makes it sound like a soaking any way you slice it - maybe there will be 3 hourly observation reports of rain (but not raining throughout those 3+ hours). Better to surmise how much you wager will fall? I'll call for under .25" in NYC (unless some convection gets going in the city proper, I don't see much more than that, and would not be surprised of .10" or less). Regarding the bolded, it doesn't always sound like a soaking; I'd think that it will rain steadily during most of these 3 hours, but more of a light-moderate rain as opposed to a soaking moderate-heavy rain during that time period. I would go with about 0.25 to 0.4", maybe a bit under that going away from the immediate NYC area but not below 0.2" near the city. I don't see the entire system stays south but at the same time the heaviest part of it will stay south/east of NYC. The RAP easily went way too far with showing 1+ inch of rain near NYC tonight. Also something to note, it's not very significant but the storm is aligned a bit more to the SSW-NNE than the SW-NE as it was a few hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 Regarding the bolded, it doesn't always sound like a soaking; I'd think that it will rain steadily during most of these 3 hours, but more of a light-moderate rain as opposed to a soaking moderate-heavy rain during that time period. I would go with about 0.25 to 0.4", maybe a bit under that going away from the immediate NYC area but not below 0.2" near the city. I don't see the entire system stays south but at the same time the heaviest part of it will stay south/east of NYC. The RAP easily went way too far with showing 1+ inch of rain near NYC tonight. Also something to note, it's not very significant but the storm is aligned a bit more to the SSW-NNE than the SW-NE as it was a few hours ago. seen very well on WV....alot more digging in the jet. the lifting in response is almost due N. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_US/animwv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 The Bergen county storm extended quite a bit to the south and is about to move through here shortly. Drizzling outside but so far no thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 seen very well on WV....alot more digging in the jet. the lifting in response is almost due N. The WV loop does show it clearly; it's harder to see on the radar but the longer loops (90+ minutes) show it as well. The rain itself isn't moving NNE, although it should slow down the back end of the rain a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 The trough axis is shifting east, so will most of the rain now falling over Virginia. It's getting the boot, it'll clip eastern LI, otherwise I don't see how there is any lasting heavy or even moderate rain in NYC. I entirely expect it to be dry much of the night. Please be more efficient and thorough when nowcasting, a radar loop of 2 hours does not cut it... Not sure about where you are, but its been pouring here in nassau for an hour...radar is lit up, almost looks like a deform band setting up over western LI haha...BUST Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 Not sure about where you are, but its been pouring here in nassau for an hour...radar is lit up, almost looks like a deform band setting up over western LI haha...BUST doesnt count, only rain falling in NYC proper matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 that convection over rockland has slowly progressed SE and its making its way through midtown but with the flow off the atlantic bending back towards the metro, looks like a deform band sets up shop. lol. classic winter system in May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 There's a lot of holes in that QPF map, and I think it is mainly pointing out convection which won't get equal distribution on the grid and is probably being parsed out wider than it seems. Still raining all 5 boroughs...JFK is reporting heavy rain now...say it...just say bust...its a rainy night...b-u-s---u can do it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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