ag3 Posted May 8, 2012 Author Share Posted May 8, 2012 And the heaviest rainfall is progged from midnight to 8am. Latest NAM has .75" of rain just through tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 Sorry-I meant from this batch moving through currently....I knew there was more from the next system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 The 18z GFS has come in way west and quite a bit wetter much like what the models had a few days ago and what the canadain was advertising for days. Problem is not 1 model at the moment agrees with one another lack of agreement towards any solution at the moment. Hopefully 00z data will solve this issue but at the moment we got a classical nowcasting situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 8, 2012 Author Share Posted May 8, 2012 Sorry-I meant from this batch moving through currently....I knew there was more from the next system. As progged. No model had any real measurable precip through 8pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 8, 2012 Author Share Posted May 8, 2012 The 18z GFS has come in way west and quite a bit wetter much like what the models had a few days ago and what the canadain was advertising for days. Problem is not 1 model at the moment agrees with one another lack of agreement towards any solution at the moment. Hopefully 00z data will solve this issue but at the moment we got a classical nowcasting situation. 18z Gfs has .50" of rain tonight and like you said way west with the coastal and now has close to 1.75" of additional rain from the coastal alone. Big shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 18z Gfs has .50" of rain tonight and like you said way west with the coastal and now has close to 1.75" of additional rain from coastal alone. Big shift. very interested to see what it's ensembles show. Some were quite a bit west at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 I wasn't looking so much at the raw NAO and AO numbers as I was the amount of positive height anomalies north of our latitude. The NAO will rebound but there still should be ridging near the Maritimes like we saw last May. Agreed. I'm sure we'd all take this pattern in an instant if it were 5 months ago. Plenty of positive anomalies up across Canada / Hudson's Bay region. It'll be interesting to see if those pos height anomalies persist into June. I found this graph interesting, courtesy of meteorologist Joe D'Aleo. One can see that May is not a good forteller of the summer pattern (often times it can be opposite), but the June pattern has a high persistence through the rest of the summer. Also of note is the high persistance once into N-D, and through meteorological winter (aka the pattern late last Nov was a real bad sign). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 8, 2012 Author Share Posted May 8, 2012 very interested to see what it's ensembles show. Some were quite a bit west at 12z. The ensemble mean is as west as the operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 23Z Temperatures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 The ensemble mean is as west as the operational. Yes it is and the old ruc is rather far west and strong with rain for tomorrow prior to the GFS storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 Very interesting right now to see PW values stalled noticeably more west and exploding. Also interesting to note that the Potential precipitation placement is stalling and setting up noticeably more west as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 50 - 75 mile difference equals not much or heavy rain. Hoping the nam is right but nor so sure. 00z nam 00z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 Have had measurable precip here now 9 straight days... just a few hundreths last few days but a streak nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 The SREF mean is a good tool to use when NCEP models can't seem to agree. In this case they all have moderate precipitation beginning 12z Wednesday which the NAM is farther east with. The mean brings over 1" of additional rain to NYC and points east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 Pouring here...with more rain coming....work canceled for today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 Coastal Brush of heavy rain this am....coming down good here. Radar seems to indicate that most of it's over by 9-10am? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 9, 2012 Author Share Posted May 9, 2012 The GFS finally backed down with its outlier western solution. Now in line with the rest of the models. .50"-.75" of rain today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 The GFS finally backed down with its outlier western solution. Now in line with the rest of the models. .50"-.75" of rain today. After this batch do we get anymore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shades Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 Clearing skies working its way into western NJ, the push east is evident, but it appears that Nassau and especially Suffolk stay in the clouds/showers most of the day. I'd bet on clearing or at least improving skies elsewhere outside of areas south and east of the city. What transpires for later tonight with the next wave is still up for debate, but I think that slides mostly east as well by nowcasting trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 .43 for the event here so far (includes yesterday's PM batch)...not sure where we get much more today-unless a new batch develops? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 rain has ended, going in for work about noon today, not so bad, its muggy out so thats a good thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 Not a good start to the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 Rain free up this way Sun breaking through & already in the mid 60's! Hopefully its gonna be a nice day. You guys out east can keep your rain.. .40" of rain since Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 9, 2012 Author Share Posted May 9, 2012 Only .25"-.35" of rain for the NYC area so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 Rain free up this way Sun breaking through & already in the mid 60's! Hopefully its gonna be a nice day. You guys out east can keep your rain.. .40" of rain since Sunday .47" over this way and noticeably humid out today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 If the RAP maps are correct on the spc mesoanalysis page shear will got to 50kts in 6 hours and cape will got to 1000 would suggest some strong to severe storms. currently there is a pocket of clearing to the west if it moves in instability would increase rather fast as this is a very moist set up. because of how moist it is most would be low topped but wind could be an issue with the strong shear if it sets up. Also heavy rain fall is going to be an issue with storms this evening some storms could put down high amounts fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 If the RAP maps are correct on the spc mesoanalysis page shear will got to 50kts in 6 hours and cape will got to 1000 would suggest some strong to severe storms. currently there is a pocket of clearing to the west if it moves in instability would increase rather fast as this is a very moist set up. because of how moist it is most would be low topped but wind could be an issue with the strong shear if it sets up. Also heavy rain fall is going to be an issue with storms this evening some storms could put down high amounts fast. Upton mentioned small hail in their discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 75 & partly cloudy up this way... Humid as well. Smells like T-storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 75 & partly cloudy up this way... Humid as well. Smells like T-storms wow-warm sector city. Can't get into it here...61, cloudy with drizzle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 If the HRRR is right there would be embedded strong to severe storms and some training which could lead to pounding. given the current instability shear and high moisture set up it seams possible. By the way for what it is worth radar in NC and Virginia is really starting to organize already a well defined area of heavy rain setting up if trends continue some could really see a surprise in the rain gauge tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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