CooL Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 After the rain event, this becomes the theme. Big time ridge that's here to stay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 Until something comes along to tweak this "pattern thats here to stay" and we end up cooler with more troughiness than what this model shows past day 7. After the rain event, this becomes the theme. Big time ridge that's here to stay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 Until something comes along to tweak this "pattern thats here to stay" and we end up cooler with more troughiness than what this model shows past day 7. Well said. I love how people see a model with big warmth locked in for the longer range and call it a lock to happen but when models shows cooler weather locked in for days on end in similar time frames, people are quick to laugh at the chance of that happening and dismiss the possibility and call it wishcasting to expect it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 Well said. I love how people see a model with big warmth locked in for the longer range and call it a lock to happen but when models shows cooler weather locked in for days on end in similar time frames, people are quick to laugh at the chance of that happening and dismiss the possibility and call it wishcasting to expect it. Lol i never called anything a lock to happen, i was simply describing the models' long range. It's the only thing to talk about because there is no weather and this thread has been dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 Looks like models want to dig trough into the west cost as new ridge forms east of HI. Trough splitting down into the SE lets see if ridge builds east and hooks as trough splits. Perhaps warmer times the final 10 days of the month. Just in time for Memorial Day?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 Good thing that the drought isn't as bad as it was before; NYC's apparently on track to miss most of the rain from the storm, with tomorrow's rain staying too far west and the coastal low staying too far east. Over the last 1-2 days most of the models backed down from a 1-2" potential to about 1/2 inch. There's more precipitation chances with this pattern than there were in March, although if the latest models are correct (which recently is not a guarantee) this will probably end up as the most widespread rain event over the next 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 looks like the calls for deluges of rain this week were premature, looks like we escape okay with just some late showers perhaps today and overnight, maybe a couple tomorrow but no biggie and temps look mild near 70...then spring makes a triumphant return with at least 3 days of sun and temps in the low to mid 70s. We deserve it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 The April storm helped but we are down over six inches for the year so far. We still finished April with below normal precip at Central Park. We'll need to start stringing several above normal months together to erase the deficit or we'll finish the year below normal. SINCE JAN 1 10.40 16.50 -6.10 20.44 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 Looks like today should be dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 8, 2012 Author Share Posted May 8, 2012 Looks like today should be dry Every single model has a line of rain coming through this evening and tonight with about .25"-.50" of rain. Anyone under convection can get more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 Every single model has a line of rain coming through this evening and tonight with about .25"-.50" of rain. Anyone under convection can get more. showing up on radar. Glad we're likely not getting the deluge some runs were showing on saturday. The weekend looks great before some more potential unsettled weather next week. I think we can get back into a more sustained warm pattern on/around 5/19. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 the stuff in western PA will get us later-but by and large, it's a dry day for most with some sun in southern areas of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 I think we can get back into a more sustained warm pattern on/around 5/19. The averages are already warm by then so I assume you mean a sustained above normal pattern, which would put us in the 80s if things do get above normal that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 The averages are already warm by then so I assume you mean a sustained above normal pattern, which would put us in the 80s if things do get above normal that is. yeah I meant above normal, starting to see a trough in the west showing up with a trough splitting down into the South. I think next week could be closer to normal with more rain/clouds and warm mins.. then the week after I think we see the ridge building east for a period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 8, 2012 Author Share Posted May 8, 2012 yeah I meant above normal, starting to see a trough in the west showing up with a trough splitting down into the South. I think next week could be closer to normal with more rain/clouds and warm mins.. then the week after I think we see the ridge building east for a period. This week is as close to normal as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 I think we'll see warmer than normal temperatures 10+ days from now with 1-3 days of above normal days anywhere from this weekend to next week but I don't see any big time heat just yet (meaning upper 80s, 90s). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 If the analogs hold, the blocking pattern should set us up for a warmer pattern in June. The last four years that featured May blocking saw warm June composite for us. The four years without May blocking had cool June composite for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 Nam is still pretty unimpressive with the rainfall totals but new GFS has over an inch by Thursday Morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 8, 2012 Author Share Posted May 8, 2012 GFS just came in with a pretty rainy solution from tonight until Thursday. Total rain looks like 1"+ for NYC and more for LI and SNE. The coastal came a little closer for tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 Beautiful Fri-Sun shaping up, maybe Thurs as well for folks SW of NYC. Perfect May wx -- 70s by day, 50s by night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 If the analogs hold, the blocking pattern should set us up for a warmer pattern in June. The last four years that featured May blocking saw warm June composite for us. The four years without May blocking had cool June composite for us. What was originally progged to be a long duration neg NAO/AO period has now changed as models have backed off significantly. AO is now forecasted slightly positive for the next few weeks, and the NAO near neutral, which is more on par w/ what the analogs had for May. I'm not sure if we'll see blocking in June; the progression of the rest of this month will tell a lot about the summer pattern IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 The mean NAO value for those 4 blocking years you had Chris is around -0.98 SD. I think we'll be much higher than that, probably near 0, which is what happened in 2011. The blocking pattern for that individual year was not as impressive: June, as you said, was on the warm side: Our pattern could be similar to 2011, although much depends on how quickly ENSO transitions from its cold state. SOI values have been positive recently, suggesting we're in no hurry to get a Nino going. Could have implications re the temp pattern in June/July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 i see signs of w atlantic ridging extending into our region on the euro and gfs ensemble means after mid month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 8, 2012 Author Share Posted May 8, 2012 Euro got wetter for our area. Has about .50"-.75" from tonight through tomorrow afternoon and then an additional .25"-.50" from brush with coastal. The coastal also came a little west, so that needs to be watched for more rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 8, 2012 Author Share Posted May 8, 2012 The euro also has pretty warm temps and sunshine for the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 The mean NAO value for those 4 blocking years you had Chris is around -0.98 SD. I think we'll be much higher than that, probably near 0, which is what happened in 2011. The blocking pattern for that individual year was not as impressive: June, as you said, was on the warm side: Our pattern could be similar to 2011, although much depends on how quickly ENSO transitions from its cold state. SOI values have been positive recently, suggesting we're in no hurry to get a Nino going. Could have implications re the temp pattern in June/July. I wasn't looking so much at the raw NAO and AO numbers as I was the amount of positive height anomalies north of our latitude. The NAO will rebound but there still should be ridging near the Maritimes like we saw last May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 8, 2012 Author Share Posted May 8, 2012 12z euro in the long range has a pretty wet pattern setting up for next week. Would put a big dent on the negative departures for season to date rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 If we get the western atlantic ridge to build west, we could be looking at a warm but still wet / humid pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 8, 2012 Share Posted May 8, 2012 rain falling apart pretty quickly--maybe .10-.20 at best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 8, 2012 Author Share Posted May 8, 2012 rain falling apart pretty quickly--maybe .10-.20 at best Models, including the euro, don't have any real rain until after 8pm and lasting through tomorrow and a short break and then more rain from coastal brush. They all have around 1" of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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