MJO812 Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 I like this cool weather. Feels refreshing . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 Moon should look great under the cloud cover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 Moon should look great under the cloud cover Moon will be so bright it will shine through the clouds, no worries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 Moon will be so bright it will shine through the clouds, no worries. Lol...im worried about moonburn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 Tuesday night and Wednesday appear to be time frames for additional thunderstorms... There seems to be some instability with perhaps up to 40-60 knots of bulk shear according to the GFS. Maybe there could be some strong thunderstorms but the set up isn't very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 Lol...im worried about moonburn It's a silent epidemic in America today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Yes I like a more active pattern especially when it brings more heavy rains and thunderstorms. East based -NAO is more better for storminess in the warm season where in the winter the best pattern will be a West based -NAO where we get the epic Miller A storms. At least we will not see unseasonable weather where we could be dealing with cold rainy days with highs in the 40's and 50's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Despite the blocking and onshore flow the cold has not been all that impressive. We even finished above normal yesterday with the mild daily minimums. 1 68 51 60 2 2 53 50 52 -6 3 58 50 54 -5 4 73 54 64 5 5 63 56 60 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Despite the blocking and onshore flow the cold has not been all that impressive. We even finished above normal yesterday with the mild daily minimums. 1 68 51 60 2 2 53 50 52 -6 3 58 50 54 -5 4 73 54 64 5 5 63 56 60 1 if the monthly minimum stays at 50 it will be a new record for the highest May minimum...This is the time when we usually see a few mornings in the 40's... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Sun finally out here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Sun finally out here Some peaks here as well but lot of work to go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Still stuck in this inversion muck and there will only be short periods of sunshine if you happen to get inside of one of the small breaks -- another busted forecast by Upton from last night was supposed to be mostly sunny today although to be fair these types of setups are very difficult to forecast. As for temps the next couple of weeks according to the GFS we don't even reach 80 through the 22nd. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KEWR Some peaks here as well but lot of work to go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Despite the blocking and onshore flow the cold has not been all that impressive. We even finished above normal yesterday with the mild daily minimums. 1 68 51 60 2 2 53 50 52 -6 3 58 50 54 -5 4 73 54 64 5 5 63 56 60 1 clouds in the way pattern looks to continue somewhat today but I do think we'll see a period of sun. Next week i think tue - fri could be ugly. While we're stuck in this start to May - here's a look back at some other Mays similar start through the first 10 days where temps were close to avg. NYC (year) :Departure 1991: +6.3 1994: -0.3 1995: 0.3 1996: -1.3 1998: +1.8 1999: +0.4 2002: -1.7 2003: -3.7 2009: +0.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Hopefully Tuesday and Wednesday's thunderstorm risk verifies unlike Friday afternoon... Tuesday's risk doesn't look very impressive as there's not much instability and most of the rain stays to the west, with SPC keeping a 5% risk to the west of NYC, but Tuesday night and Wednesday could bring more widespread activity excluding the ECM which keeps the rain southeast of Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Quite the deluge on the 12z GFS as it develops a coastal Wednesday into Thursday: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWarning Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 12z GFS dumps 2-3" of rain areawide from Tuesday into Thursday with mulitiple waves passing along a slow-moving cold front as well as a more defined low pressure on Thursday night that passes east of our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Where was this pattern last winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 clouds in the way pattern looks to continue somewhat today but I do think we'll see a period of sun. Next week i think tue - fri could be ugly. While we're stuck in this start to May - here's a look back at some other Mays similar start through the first 10 days where temps were close to avg. NYC (year) :Departure 1991: +6.3 1994: -0.3 1995: 0.3 1996: -1.3 1998: +1.8 1999: +0.4 2002: -1.7 2003: -3.7 2009: +0.1 Yeah looks like you're going to be correct with the clouds dominating - rough week ahead. Good call. This weekend was a total bust. Cloudy and mid 60s right now here. Tomorrow we should see some sun, but with the coastal storm showing up on models for thursday, most of this week is cloudy. Daily temp departures will probably be slightly above normal the next few days just b/c overnight mins are high, but it's the type of pattern where it "feels" cooler than normal given we're all awake in the daylight hours. Maybe some much needed rain Thursday; neg NAO really doing its dirty work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 clouds in the way pattern looks to continue somewhat today but I do think we'll see a period of sun. Next week i think tue - fri could be ugly. While we're stuck in this start to May - here's a look back at some other Mays similar start through the first 10 days where temps were close to avg. NYC (year) :Departure 1991: +6.3 1994: -0.3 1995: 0.3 1996: -1.3 1998: +1.8 1999: +0.4 2002: -1.7 2003: -3.7 2009: +0.1 Yeah looks like you're going to be correct with the clouds dominating - rough week ahead. Good call. This weekend was a total bust. Cloudy and mid 60s right now here. Tomorrow we should see some sun, but with the coastal storm showing up on models for thursday, most of this week is cloudy. Daily temp departures will probably be slightly above normal the next few days just b/c overnight mins are high, but it's the type of pattern where it "feels" cooler than normal given we're all awake in the daylight hours. Maybe some much needed rain Thursday; neg NAO really doing its dirty work. It looks like a close to normal pattern for us through the next few weeks. Then we'll have to see what the pattern looks like after the 20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Nice to have the sun out today....but a very noticeable chill in the air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Yeah looks like you're going to be correct with the clouds dominating - rough week ahead. Good call. This weekend was a total bust. Cloudy and mid 60s right now here. Tomorrow we should see some sun, but with the coastal storm showing up on models for thursday, most of this week is cloudy. Daily temp departures will probably be slightly above normal the next few days just b/c overnight mins are high, but it's the type of pattern where it "feels" cooler than normal given we're all awake in the daylight hours. Maybe some much needed rain Thursday; neg NAO really doing its dirty work. Was partly cloudy by 1:30 here then mostly sunny by 3:30 =, not a cloud in the sky the last hour. Turned out to be a top notch spring day. Next week does look ugly, hopefully it doesnt spill over into mothers day weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Anyone have a idea on what days this week wiil be the wash out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Anyone have a idea on what days this week wiil be the wash out? Hopefully it does not rain all that much on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Anyone have a idea on what days this week wiil be the wash out? I'd say Wednesday looks the worst right now, probably lingering into at least the first half of Thursday. Friday and Tuesday may feature showers around, but the bulk of the rain should fall in that 12z Wed-18z Thurs period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Was partly cloudy by 1:30 here then mostly sunny by 3:30 =, not a cloud in the sky the last hour. Turned out to be a top notch spring day. Next week does look ugly, hopefully it doesnt spill over into mothers day weekend. Yep, here in Port Jefferson LI and past 2 hours have been majestic. A kind of poetry in Spring, that u just kinda embrace bc it's usually so fleeting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 I'd say Wednesday looks the worst right now, probably lingering into at least the first half of Thursday. Friday and Tuesday may feature showers around, but the bulk of the rain should fall in that 12z Wed-18z Thurs period. euro clips the area and focuses the heaviest precip south of nyc. Maybe we'll get lucky and avoid the brunt of the rain.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 Gfs is much drier than earlier. About an inch but spread out over 2.5 days euro clips the area and focuses the heaviest precip south of nyc. Maybe we'll get lucky and avoid the brunt of the rain.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 It looks like a close to normal pattern for us through the next few weeks. Then we'll have to see what the pattern looks like after the 20th. It's interesting how this pattern is actually just an average one... after the consistent above average temperatures throughout almost the entire fall and winter, what's supposed to be an average pattern feels like a chilly one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 6, 2012 Share Posted May 6, 2012 It's interesting how this pattern is actually just an average one... after the consistent above average temperatures throughout almost the entire fall and winter, what's supposed to be an average pattern feels like a chilly one. Agreed. Based on the progression of the past 2 months, you'd think we average low 90s by mid May, when in reality mid/upper 60s is normal. March and April combined featured unprecedented warmth. Let's just hope we don't go the other way for summer. I remember one summer - 2004? - where we had a nor'easter with high temps in the low 60s in July I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 Gfs is much drier than earlier. About an inch but spread out over 2.5 days 18z gfs similar to the ecm - still time for trends in either direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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