Brian5671 Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 storms will be from coastal ct north today. Looks like new haven and meriden areas are under the gun. Flash flooding could be a huge problem. Nope. Beryl stealing the show...subsidence on the NW side FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Nope. Beryl stealing the show...subsidence on the NW side FTL stuff coming in from the west could still blossom but we may bel be a little too far south, but its plenty juicy out still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 June 2003 was about - 8 prior to the end of the month heat wave. June 2009 was -4 for the month Another interesting feature in 2003 was the abnormally warm waters off the Mid Atl and Northeast coast and most of the rest of the Atlantic. I believe that was the year with the famous heat waves in Europe (france). The Med ran well above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxnyc Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 It's pretty funny that with all the storms out to the northwest of the city we ended up with a trace of rain. You just never know, I guess. I do have to agree with the people who mentioned that in the five boroughs especially southern Brooklyn and queens a warm front tends to give us the heaviest and most volatile storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Yeah, the heights eventually rebuilt in 2003. It's interesting that blocking has dominated the June pattern since 2007. Despite all the blocking, we usually finished up the month above normal as more ridging developed to the SW. What did Jun '09 look like by itself? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 What did Jun '09 look like by itself? June 2009 was the coolest of the bunch after the cold winter and spring North American pattern that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 There's a rainbow peaking through the clouds in SE Queens. I wish there weren't any clouds to begin with so it'd be visible. This is the 2nd rainbow I've seen in a week, & the 3rd one I've ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 18Z RGEM going with a more negative tilted trough for the weekend system then either the GFS/NAM, if that is the case, the rain will move out more slowly on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Surprised there's been no talk on the T-storm threat fri night. I don't usually post about severe threats much, especially this far in advance, but I'm intrigued by this synoptic set-up. Quite impressive to see an intensifying sub 1005 sfc low as it propagates NE into the Lakes. It's similar to an early spring/late fall system, but this time of year we've got better thermodynamics to work with, aka sfc instability parameters. Thermodynamics won't be all that great for our area, but as I said the kinematics are probably almost as good as it gets for June. Strong vertical shear/ascent w/ the associated sfc low, could see a powerful squall line develop ahead of the cold front, maybe enough helicity near the sfc warm front to spin up some tornadoes as well. Given the impressive upper level trough, we'll also have cooling aloft, pretty nice lapse rates, which means hail is a threat as well. SPC has highlighted the mid atlantic in particular, and their wording is very strong IMO for a day 3 threat, especially on the East Coast. The Mid-atlantic may do better w/ more conducive thermodynamic parameters, but out area should watch too. Something to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Surprised there's been no talk on the T-storm threat fri night. I don't usually post about severe threats much, especially this far in advance, but I'm intrigued by this synoptic set-up. Quite impressive to see an intensifying sub 1005 sfc low as it propagates NE into the Lakes. It's similar to an early spring/late fall system, but this time of year we've got better thermodynamics to work with, aka sfc instability parameters. Thermodynamics won't be all that great for our area, but as I said the kinematics are probably almost as good as it gets for June. Strong vertical shear/ascent w/ the associated sfc low, could see a powerful squall line develop ahead of the cold front, maybe enough helicity near the sfc warm front to spin up some tornadoes as well. Given the impressive upper level trough, we'll also have cooling aloft, pretty nice lapse rates, which means hail is a threat as well. SPC has highlighted the mid atlantic in particular, and their wording is very strong IMO for a day 3 threat, especially on the East Coast. The Mid-atlantic may do better w/ more conducive thermodynamic parameters, but out area should watch too. Something to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Surprised there's been no talk on the T-storm threat fri night. I don't usually post about severe threats much, especially this far in advance, but I'm intrigued by this synoptic set-up. Quite impressive to see an intensifying sub 1005 sfc low as it propagates NE into the Lakes. It's similar to an early spring/late fall system, but this time of year we've got better thermodynamics to work with, aka sfc instability parameters. Thermodynamics won't be all that great for our area, but as I said the kinematics are probably almost as good as it gets for June. Strong vertical shear/ascent w/ the associated sfc low, could see a powerful squall line develop ahead of the cold front, maybe enough helicity near the sfc warm front to spin up some tornadoes as well. Given the impressive upper level trough, we'll also have cooling aloft, pretty nice lapse rates, which means hail is a threat as well. SPC has highlighted the mid atlantic in particular, and their wording is very strong IMO for a day 3 threat, especially on the East Coast. The Mid-atlantic may do better w/ more conducive thermodynamic parameters, but out area should watch too. Something to track. If we can get the sfc warm front a bit further north, many will be in the game. Right now I'd say folks SW of NYC are at highest risk w/ this threat. I like events w/ high shear/dynamics though; IMO they tend to produce better for coastal zones than low dynamic/high sfc instability events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Tom...I think the setup is good for the Mid-Atlantic, but there's too much marine influence here to suggest any severe weather threat. Unless the warm front trends very far north in future model cycles, we'll only have a chance for elevated or maybe isolated strong storms. The boundary layer winds on most models suggest that the surface warm sector will be very small in our area. You can see it clearly on tonight's NAM. The westerly winds behind the front are already near the Delaware River while the southeasterly winds are stout over NYC. The southerly/warm and moist flow is only present over a small area of New Jersey. However, farther to our south and west, there is a widespread area of interest where the potential exists for mainly damaging winds with severe thunderstorms. Effective/0-6km bulk shear parameters are modestly favorable with the SREF mean hinting at 30-40kts. The 65 F 2m dew point contour reaches as far north as Philly at 2100z Friday. The surface based cape axis reaches near the Mason Dixon line or a hair north into SW New Jersey. Still, I would think an area of South-Central or Southeast PA as well as far N Maryland could be a favorable area for some isolated tornadoes. The juxtaposition of the wind fields and instability as well as some favorable low level helicity extending south were the first tip-off to me on that potential. 0-3km helicity values at 2100z Friday in the aforementioned area are over 300 m2/s2. SPC SREF sig-tor ingredients also pegging this area of interest on the 21z run. I say watch it carefully down there. Less interested in severe weather up here for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 The region of the northeast were in being the tristate area in general anytime of year is very difficult to get a truly severe threat to materialize to the coast. Last year ive seen great severe weather criteria met with a few storm systems only to consistently collapse when they reach nyc points east no matter how severe they were. i personally find it very hard to get excited over a storm threat anymore. The only storm i find that deliver are the ones that develop south of the area offshore or develop over the city and move east. Any other storm development just dies as soon as it moves into our area for the most part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Shear and forcing with the 40-50kt LLJ on NAM might support a healthy line of elevated t-storms coming during the overnight hours, over the NYC area. Especially just N&W of NYC. The NAM also has LIs increasing during the early morning hours on Saturday. This along with good shear and forcing, might support some isolated severe t-storms too. The marine influence might slightly limited by above normal SSTs: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 31, 2012 Author Share Posted May 31, 2012 Temp and Precip Stats through May 30th: Temps: NYC: +2.6 LGA: +3.2 JFK: +3.2 EWR: +3.6 BDR: +3.6 Precip (departure from average in parenthesis): NYC: 5.38" (+1.34") LGA: 4.57" (+1.02") JFK: 7.08" (+3.28") EWR: 4.32" (+.37") BDR: 4.57" (+.90") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 I am just west of JFK and recorded 6.69in this month, JFK got into one more t-storm then I did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 With the way things are looking to start the month I'd say June will be closer to normal however it won't take much of a heat wave towards the middle/end of the month to get us to +2 to +3 range again. Temp and Precip Stats through May 30th: Temps: NYC: +2.6 LGA: +3.2 JFK: +3.2 EWR: +3.6 BDR: +3.6 Precip (departure from average in parenthesis): NYC: 5.38" (+1.34") LGA: 4.57" (+1.02") JFK: 7.08" (+3.28") EWR: 4.32" (+.37") BDR: 4.57" (+.90") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 With the way things are looking to start the month I'd say June will be closer to normal however it won't take much of a heat wave towards the middle/end of the month to get us to +2 to +3 range again. I still think we end up above normal for june one that ULL moves out and we get under the ridge that build in afterwards, how much heat that may produce is still up in the air though. Im just itching for some action as far as weather though cause its downright boring right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Shear and forcing with the 40-50kt LLJ on NAM might support a healthy line of elevated t-storms coming during the overnight hours, over the NYC area. Especially just N&W of NYC. The NAM also has LIs increasing during the early morning hours on Saturday. This along with good shear and forcing, might support some isolated severe t-storms too. The marine influence might slightly limited by above normal SSTs: MUCAPE values don't get to 500 j/kg anywhere north of Central NJ on the SREF mean....in other words, the models aren't too excited about the elevated instability axis. The strong shear could support a few isolated stronger elevated storms if we can get that instability axis farther north...but I like the SPC 5% probabilities for now. I don't see anything too exciting with this threat in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 I will take elevated storms over boring general rain showers. If it is just general rain and just will get the fun stuff then I will not take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 MUCAPE values don't get to 500 j/kg anywhere north of Central NJ on the SREF mean....in other words, the models aren't too excited about the elevated instability axis. The strong shear could support a few isolated stronger elevated storms if we can get that instability axis farther north...but I like the SPC 5% probabilities for now. I don't see anything too exciting with this threat in our area. Agreed. The timing and stability are obvious issues and there is another one: As we go in time, the trough should continue to go more negative, aiding in backing the lower to mid tropospheric flow further. Suddenly, the directional shear becomes broader. Finally, I'm worried about the lack of partial phasing with the southern s/w. The most extreme scenario is the 00z UKMET but the GFS and ECMWF are less robust with this feature. Suddenly, you have a s/w rounding the trough and initiating cyclogenesis off the Southeast Coast. This would certainly retard the northward progression of the warm front for our region late in the evening. This looks like a heavy rain setup. I don't like the way the data has been trending for severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 anyone have any thoughts on whether we salvage any part of Saturday or does it stay overcast and damp all through the daylight hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Agreed. The timing and stability are obvious issues and there is another one: As we go in time, the trough should continue to go more negative, aiding in backing the lower to mid tropospheric flow further. Suddenly, the directional shear becomes broader. Finally, I'm worried about the lack of partial phasing with the southern s/w. The most extreme scenario is the 00z UKMET but the GFS and ECMWF are less robust with this feature. Suddenly, you have a s/w rounding the trough and initiating cyclogenesis off the Southeast Coast. This would certainly retard the northward progression of the warm front for our region late in the evening. This looks like a heavy rain setup. I don't like the way the data has been trending for severe. Definitely agreed on all counts. I still think there's a chance for some isolated tornadoes in Southeast PA or North Maryland in the afternoon on Friday ahead of the front and south of the warm front (if it gets that far north). The models this morning still have that area on the northern edge of decent surface instability, juxtaposed with the good wind fields and effective shear..and some favorable low level helicity (0-3km 300 m2/s2). So that would be a place I would watch for something interesting. The low level helicity drops off rapidly south of there, so it probably should a mostly damaging wind threat across the Mid-Atlantic...and it could be a decent one at that, with 30-40kts of 0-6km bulk shear in the warm sector. SPC pegged this area in their Day 2 from early this morning "THAT SAID...SOME SUPERCELLS...INCLUDING A TORNADO THREAT...COULD OCCUR MAINLY ACROSS VA/DELMARVA REGION INTO SOUTHERN PA/NJ PROVIDED 1/ SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION OCCURS NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND 2/ SEMI-DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHERE A LINEAR MODE SHOULD BE MORE DOMINANT. SOMEWHAT HIGHER PROBABILITIES/PERHAPS EVEN A CATEGORICAL MODERATE RISK MIGHT BE WARRANTED IN SUBSEQUENT CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 31, 2012 Author Share Posted May 31, 2012 anyone have any thoughts on whether we salvage any part of Saturday or does it stay overcast and damp all through the daylight hours? Looks like more of a Saturday morning thing and clearing by the afternoon and evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 anyone have any thoughts on whether we salvage any part of Saturday or does it stay overcast and damp all through the daylight hours? The NAM has dry west winds at 10m by 12z Saturday. Could actually salvage a good part of the day if the NAM isn't too fast with the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 The elevated instability, I feel might being underplayed here on the models, with the LLJ. The SREF mean and other models may not be able to capture this well. The 12z NAM has stronger 850mb-925mb jet and the triple-point low going to our west. The stronger line of convention (perhaps more elevated than severe) moving through during the early morning hours on Saturday: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 31, 2012 Author Share Posted May 31, 2012 We should move the Saturday storm threat into the June thread. Saturday is June 2nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Nice day today 73.6 out right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 A little over 80F IMBY. Lower humidity. Very nice out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Georgous day for a 2 hour lunch break on jones beach. Simply perfect, college is out so all the young ladies are skimping about. Was very tough coming back to the office today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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