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May observations and discussions...


ag3

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Yeah it will be interesting, as a -NAO vs +NAO definitely has temperature implications for the Northeast US, especially if we approach weak nino territory in a couple months.

It's been positive for months so a turn to negative for a while wouldn't be too surprising. Some had this summer averaging even slightly below normal so a -NAO may play some role in that along with the developing Nino.

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Earlier forecasts of a moderately negative NAO/AO have now almost completely backed off. The AO is progged to slip slightly below 0, but then pretty much hover around neutral for the next couple weeks. NAO should be bouncing around 0 to -0.5 SD.

I'll have to disagree about next week. Monday looks beautiful, low 70s, Tuesday into early Wednesday is ugly, but then Thurs-Sat might be quite pleasant as well, with upper 60s and a good deal of sunshine. I think the cloud cover we saw this week is much worse than we'll see next week.

i hope youre right about next week. The euro is much improved from prior runs where it was showing tue - next weekend (5/12) as a washout.

Today cleared out nicely too for a while some clouds in the last hour but still rather noce.

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Doesn't look like 90 is in sight at least through the 20th - that original thread stating that the first 15 days of the month will be cool and or wet might be right.........

All the blocking is going to help us stay much closer to normal here than we have seen in quite a while.

The pattern over the last ten days of the month will determine how we finish.

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All the blocking is going to help us stay much closer to normal here than we have seen in quite a while.

The pattern over the last ten days of the month will determine how we finish.

Yeah it's been awhile since we've seen prolonged near normal temps. The next 7-14 days looks like a lot of 65-75 degree highs with chances for rain every few days or so, pretty typical May weather.

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Yeah it's been awhile since we've seen prolonged near normal temps. The next 7-14 days looks like a lot of 65-75 degree highs with chances for rain every few days or so, pretty typical May weather.

The May pattern has really been a cooler one over the last ten years or so compared to the rest of spring.

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Huge bust on the highs for today thus far. NWS had me at 71F right now, it's 55F and mist.

Seems to be every single day now at this rate. Forecasted to be in the 70s today, still in the 50s. Yesterday was mid-80s, never reached 80F, and on May 2nd of course we were expected to at least be in the 60s and the high was 53F. Sigh.

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Portions of interior NNJ where the sun has broken through the clouds have temperatures near 70 degrees. At this time of year we can remain cloudy until early/mid afternoon and still come close to our fcsted highs w/ several hours of daylight. Yesterday we were OVC / low 60s until 2pm here in SE PA, but finished the day with an 83F high, only a couple degrees under guidance.

Basically what I'm saying is IF we can get clearing breaks in the next few hours, those upper 50s in NYC will rapidly surge into the upper 60s.

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My forecasted high is still 70...haven't hit 60 yet

edit: it's started brightening and jumped into the mid 60s

Portions of interior NNJ where the sun has broken through the clouds have temperatures near 70 degrees. At this time of year we can remain cloudy until early/mid afternoon and still come close to our fcsted highs w/ several hours of daylight. Yesterday we were OVC / low 60s until 2pm here in SE PA, but finished the day with an 83F high, only a couple degrees under guidance.

Basically what I'm saying is IF we can get clearing breaks in the next few hours, those upper 50s in NYC will rapidly surge into the upper 60s.

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Up to 68F with partial clearing here in the PHL area. Looks like NYC and coast will remain socked in yet again.

What a contrast in temp departures so far this May across the NE -- well above in PA and well below normal in New England. The blocking upstream prevents any strong SW sfc winds from making it into New England. NW flow aloft and onshore sfc winds.

Should be interesting to see how the rest of the month evolves.

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Tomorrow's starting to look uglier as well; 18z NAM continues the trend of more clouds/lower temps for tomorrow with barely low 60s for highs. Based on the trends this week for more clouds/lower temps than expected, a cloudier/cooler solution makes sense. So much for low-mid 70s and mostly sunny skies this weekend...

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Was expecting some sunshine today but it never happened...around 58-59 now, not terrible but disappointing nonetheless...still enjoyed the day, time to drink kids, enjoy the night!

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