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May observations and discussions...

ag3

By ag3,
in New York City Metro

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NYCSuburbs

NYCSuburbs

Posted
Posted

Local OBS showed I reached a high of 92 with a heat index of 99, it felt like the middle of July outside. The storms approaching from PA aren't as strong as those over NY but hopefully they manage to sustain themselves by the time they reach northern NJ. In some cases PA/NY outbreaks tend to fall apart before reaching NYC, but in this case there appears to be plenty of support for these storms to reach NYC while somewhat maintaining their intensity.

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earthlight

earthlight

Posted
Posted

831

WWUS30 KWNS 292149

SAW8

SPC AWW 292149

WW 318 SEVERE TSTM CT NJ NY PA CW 292155Z - 300200Z

AXIS..45 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..

5NNW POU/POUGHKEEPSIE NY/ - 15SW PHL/PHILADELPHIA PA/

..AVIATION COORDS.. 40NM E/W /47NE SAX - 47NW SIE/

HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.

MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25025.

LAT...LON 41687304 39707459 39707630 41687479

THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A

COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS

FOR WOU8.

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Weathergun

Weathergun

Posted
Posted

Watch being issued for NYC NW, and SW CT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 318

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

555 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 318 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT

FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

NYC005-047-061-071-079-081-085-087-119-300200-

/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0318.120529T2155Z-120530T0200Z/

NY

. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BRONX KINGS NEW YORK

ORANGE PUTNAM QUEENS

RICHMOND ROCKLAND WESTCHESTER

$$

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 318

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

555 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 318 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT

FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

NJC003-005-007-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-031-035-037-

039-041-300200-

/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0318.120529T2155Z-120530T0200Z/

NJ

. NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BERGEN BURLINGTON CAMDEN

ESSEX GLOUCESTER HUDSON

HUNTERDON MERCER MIDDLESEX

MONMOUTH MORRIS OCEAN

PASSAIC SOMERSET SUSSEX

UNION WARREN

$$

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 318

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

555 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 318 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT

FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

CTC001-009-300200-

/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0318.120529T2155Z-120530T0200Z/

CT

. CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

FAIRFIELD NEW HAVEN

$$

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uofmiami

uofmiami

Posted
Posted

http://www.spc.noaa....tch/ww0318.html

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 318
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  555 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

  THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

	  WESTERN CONNECTICUT
	  NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY
	  SOUTHEAST NEW YORK
	  EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
	  COASTAL WATERS

  EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 555 PM UNTIL
  1000 PM EDT.

  HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
  MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

  THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
  STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 5 MILES NORTH
  NORTHWEST OF POUGHKEEPSIE NEW YORK TO 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
  PHILADELPHIA PENNSYLVANIA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH
  SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

  REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
  FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
  AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
  THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
  AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
  DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

  OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 313...WW 314...WW
  315...WW 316...WW 317...

  DISCUSSION...A LINE OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN PA AND
  SOUTHEAST NY WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
  WATCH AREA.  HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS ARE RESULTING IN MODERATE CAPE
  VALUES.  SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL PROMOTE ORGANIZED
  MULTICELL STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

  AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
  TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
  KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
  MOTION VECTOR 25025.


  ...HART

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blizzardof09

blizzardof09

Posted
Posted

831

WWUS30 KWNS 292149

SAW8

SPC AWW 292149

WW 318 SEVERE TSTM CT NJ NY PA CW 292155Z - 300200Z

AXIS..45 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..

5NNW POU/POUGHKEEPSIE NY/ - 15SW PHL/PHILADELPHIA PA/

..AVIATION COORDS.. 40NM E/W /47NE SAX - 47NW SIE/

HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.

MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25025.

LAT...LON 41687304 39707459 39707630 41687479

THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A

COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS

FOR WOU8.

are getting optimistic about these storms reaching NYC/metro at severe levels or close to it as of right now john? looks like it isnt that bad of a setup right now currently....till you get to the coast where i am than not so much lol

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earthlight

earthlight

Posted
Posted

are getting optimistic about these storms reaching NYC/metro at severe levels or close to it as of right now john? looks like it isnt that bad of a setup right now currently....till you get to the coast where i am than not so much lol

The concern is the lack of shear for organization of storms...if we had 30+kts of 0-6km bulk shear I think we could be watching a huge convective system racing to the coast. It looks like it's trying to organize a cold pool...if it can do that, it will move towards the very favorable instability over our area.

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blizzardof09

blizzardof09

Posted
Posted

The concern is the lack of shear for organization of storms...if we had 30+kts of 0-6km bulk shear I think we could be watching a huge convective system racing to the coast. It looks like it's trying to organize a cold pool...if it can do that, it will move towards the very favorable instability over our area.

i think if my storm shield continues to hold off storms where i am, im gonna put a camera in your place in jersey and stream it to my computer live so i dont have to miss the storms before they die when they get to me haha. you seem to always attract all the good weather where you are, im truly envious of your location john......storms are looking healthy again though

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TheTrials

TheTrials

Posted
Posted

lol

:weenie:

you might want to wait until the line gets closer to the area

he knows his stuff, there is a reason he would make such a definitive statement.

the wind off the water isn't going to help anything in the immmediate nyc area either.

nw jersey, mid-hudson valley should do ok

everyone else just rain and some thunder/lightning.

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LocoAko

LocoAko

Posted
Posted

The wind is only off the water at the immediate coastline.We're still extremely unstable. The lack of 0-6 km shear has been noted leading to perhaps not the best storm organization but the cold pool is keeping this thing going for the time being.

njwxnet-windsp.png

njwxnet-temperature.png

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tmagan

tmagan

Posted
Posted

Found this interesting:

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

658 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...

..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

..REMARKS..

0550 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 NW KEEDYSVILLE 39.49N 77.71W

05/29/2012 WASHINGTON MD PUBLIC

LARGE BRANCHES DOWN FROM THUNDERSTORM WIND. WEATHER

STATION WAS TORN FROM EXTERIOR OF HOUSE.

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

Impressive record from DET yesterday.

...YESTERDAYS RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE AT DETROIT MI ALSO TIED THE

MAY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD...

THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 95 DEGREES SET YESTERDAY AT DETROIT

MI...TIED THE RECORD FOR THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH OF

MAY. THE ONLY OTHER DAY IN DETROIT HISTORY THAT WAS AS HOT AS

YESTERDAY WAS THE 95 SET ON MAY 31 1895.

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JonClaw

JonClaw

Posted
Posted

Storms or not for NYC, this is one beautiful line:

j3RoI.jpg

mcd0967.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0967

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0601 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN PA...NJ...SERN NY...CT...WRN AND CNTRL

MA AND SRN NH

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 314...315...318...

VALID 292301Z - 300030Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH

314...315...318...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS

AND SOME HAIL WILL PERSIST UNTIL 02Z FROM SERN PA...NJ...THE NEW

YORK CITY AREA AND NEWD THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND.

DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS EVENING AN EXPANSIVE SQUALL LINE EXTENDS

FROM NRN VA THROUGH ERN PA...SERN NY INTO WRN MA AND SRN NH MOVING

EAST AT 30 KT. STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT WRN PORTIONS OF NEW

YORK CITY AREA BY 00Z. OBSERVED WIND GUSTS DURING THE PAST HOUR HAVE

RANGED FROM 30 TO 50 KT. THE STRONGER STORMS WITHIN THE LINE WILL

REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS

AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINING INSTABILITY AXIS WHERE MLCAPE

RANGES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. TOWARD MID EVENING...THE STORMS ARE

EXPECTED TO UNDERGO A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER

STABILIZES AND AS STORMS BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER THE COOLER MARINE

BOUNDARY LAYER.

..DIAL.. 05/29/2012

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earthlight

earthlight

Posted
Posted

Well, theres our good attempt at a cold pool. Plenty of instability. These storms should continue moving rapidly east the next 2 hours.

Outflow boundary entering Morris/Somerset Co now. Could touch off new updrafts.

Edit: seems to be doing so already directly behind it.

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blizzardof09

blizzardof09

Posted
Posted

Well, theres our good attempt at a cold pool. Plenty of instability. These storms should continue moving rapidly east the next 2 hours.

Outflow boundary entering Morris/Somerset Co now. Could touch off new updrafts.

Edit: seems to be doing so already directly behind it.

thats good than for us. instability FTW!

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earthlight

earthlight

Posted
Posted

The outflow boundary is doing wonders now over Morris/Somerset county line from a portion of the line of storms that was previously weakened.

There's also a seabreeze boundary which has been evident on radar from Toms River northward through Kings County and just east of Staten Island into New York City and then SW CT.

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