Brian5671 Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 87 here earlier, down to 85 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 29, 2012 Author Share Posted May 29, 2012 Euro is just like NAM/GFS now. Has no storms tonight. Keeps the storms away until 6z tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 The GFS and NAM hint at development tonight near 8pm and continuing through the early morning hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Actually the GFS has .45" from 00- 06z tonight and .15 thereafter Euro is just like NAM/GFS now. Has no storms tonight. Keeps the storms away until 6z tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Cape values have increased to near 3000 in our area, I would be shocked if we didn't see storms sustain themselves later on this evening. The best instability looks to be over the poconos but we certainly have a very unstable atmosphere here as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Car thermometer in C NJ read 94 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Cape values have increased to near 3000 in our area, I would be shocked if we didn't see storms sustain themselves later on this evening. The best instability looks to be over the poconos but we certainly have a very unstable atmosphere here as well. Elevated only. No severe. Rain will be biggest threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxnyc Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 I'm up in Woodridge, ny in the catskills had a healthy thunderstorm move through heavy rain and nickel sized hail. Temps were around 87 before temps dropped to 72 behing the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 12z SPC WRF has line of convection moving through NYC area, between 0z and 3z. If true, I think this start of severe to west, than more become more elevated further east: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 it was 89 imby today with a pretty good southerly wind... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 90.3/73, still rising. HI 99! Incredible low of 72 here last night, which is impressive in July nevermind May. True testament to the high dew point airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 19Z Observations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 storms out in PA already looking elevated and much weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 storms out in PA already looking elevated and much weaker. yup not looking good currently at all. upstate near albany is really rocking though.....not so much down here, hopefully maybe get some action over here later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Car thermometer in C NJ read 94 degrees. House thermometer in S Queens reads 92 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Unless the park hit between hours it looks to have fallen short again. 92 here in c-nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 no clouds today so i'm sure the direct sunlight is baking your house, if you have old windows and no insulation that makes it even worse House thermometer in S Queens reads 92 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Beautiful severe cells in upstate ny.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Beautiful severe cells in upstate ny.... yea upstate not around here lol.....looks like as the line of storms are moving across PA there weakening more, except for upstate NY where there really rocking today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Most of the storms in PA, still have severe t-storm warnings. Shear remains weak. But there's still plenty of surface-based instability. over Northern NJ and Lower Hudson Valley. Still could some severe, mainly N&W of NYC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Both 12z runs euro and gfs start june off normal to below Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 i think this will make it to the coast. there's a cold pool evident and lapse rates are still favorable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=box&loop=yes Wow look at that tor warn cell.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 SPC still humming over Severe t-storm watch further east: HE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 315 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...THREAT OF DMGG WIND AND HAIL PERSISTS ACROSS SEVERE WW 315. STABLE AREAS IN THE WAKE OF THE PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF CONVECTION MAY BE CLEARED. AREAS DOWNSTREAM ARE STILL BEING MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL WW. DISCUSSION...A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EWD...AND HAS MOVED OUT OF SEVERE WW312. ACROSS SERN NY...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION OVER THE CATSKILLS IS SURGING NWWD...AND MAY LOCALLY ENHANCE THE STRENGTH OF THE STORMS TO THE W AS THE BOUNDARIES MERGE. OTHERWISE...THE AIR MASS ACROSS SERN NY INTO WRN MA REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SEVERE WINDS AND HAIL. FARTHER S...AREA VAD WIND PROFILE DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN BEHIND THE PRIMARY LINE OF CONVECTION. HOWEVER...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS ERN PA INTO NJ MAY STILL SUPPORT A DMGG WIND THREAT. AREAS TO THE EAST OF WW315 ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. ALTHOUGH NOCTURNAL COOLING WILL GRADUALLY STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...SEASONABLY WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS AND WARM ADVECTION REGIME MAY LEAD TO A SLOWER THAN TYPICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE INVERSION. ..HURLBUT.. 05/29/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 I'm liking that cell near Harrisburg... hopefully it will hold up by the time it gets into Jersey... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Yeah the southern half of that line looks nice for areas south of 78 maybe. I'm liking that cell near Harrisburg... hopefully it will hold up by the time it gets into Jersey... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 The radar presentation has improved with some stratiform rain behind the storms indicative of at least an attempt to form a cold pool. However the storms are just now entering very poor 0-6km/effective shear parameters. To the east of these favorable shear parameters and kinematics is the best instability. As long as we can continue the forcing for ascent farther east, these storms will be running into 3000j/kg of surface based cape. Which, despite weak shear, is enough to support updraft development in itself with some strong forcing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Low level lapse rates are also very impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Yeah the southern half of that line looks nice for areas south of 78 maybe. Being in southern somerset county, that would include my location If it does reach my area, I will no doubt keep you guys posted. FWIW, Wunderground radar is showing some nice hail producers in that line in South Central PA. http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=zoom&num=6&delay=15&rbscale=0.5630434782608695&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=CCX&type=N0R&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&showstorms=10&map.x=486.5&map.y=284.5¢erx=400¢ery=240&lightning=0&smooth=0&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 THE ENTIRE AREA IS CURRENTLY UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...WITH A MODERATE RISK BORDERING ORANGE COUNTY. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH COULD BE POSSIBLE SOON FOR ROUGHLY THE NW HALF OF THE CWA. MOST RECENT ACARS SOUNDINGS HINT A WEAK CAP NEAR 750-700 MB...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE CONVECTION HERE. BULK SHEAR IS SHOULD BE AROUND 30KT EARLY THIS EVENING..WITH THE HIGHER VALUES GENERALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES...AND WITH A UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW. MAIN THREAT WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWAT VALUES WILL BE NEAR 1.4 TO 1.5 INCHES. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND WITH CAPE AROUND 700-800 J/KG IN THE -10C TO -30C REGION COUPLED WITH LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6.5 TO 7.0 C/KM JUST BELOW IT...LARGE HAIL IS STILL A POSSIBILITY IN SPITE OF RELATIVELY HIGH WET BULB ZERO VALUES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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