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May observations and discussions...

ag3

By ag3,
in New York City Metro

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SBUWX23

SBUWX23

Posted
Posted

Shear doesnt spark storms. Shear helps organize them. The trigger is usually the front or pre-frontal trough. We are going to be aided by the upper trough later today so I would think shear does increase somewhat.

And I have disagree with John a bit. A well developed cold pool in a low shear environment usually means the storms will not be able to organize on the gust front/outflow. You need the right balance of ambient shear and storm scale shear to promote deep new convection along the boundary.

I think John is right, we have a very destablilized atmosphere but no real shear to spark storms. Height falls associated with the upper level low are well to our west and north with the best shear also. I do also agree our best shot will be from the leading edge of the cold pool associated with the storms, which might be the reason for the development to our west right now. Nothing really moving this way though.

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Stormlover74

Stormlover74

Posted
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Everything has to go perfectly for severe weather around here so I'm not expecting much. I''ll be happy with some downpours, thunder and lightning tonight with the front.

Shear doesnt spark storms. Shear helps organize them. The trigger is usually the front or pre-frontal trough. We are going to be aided by the upper trough later today so I would think shear does increase somewhat.

And I have disagree with John a bit. A well developed cold pool in a low shear environment usually means the storms will not be able to organize on the gust front/outflow. You need the right balance of ambient shear and storm scale shear to promote deep new convection along the boundary.

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SBUWX23

SBUWX23

Posted
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I do believe there will be storms around tonight with the front but severity will be limited across coastal areas.

Everything has to go perfectly for severe weather around here so I'm not expecting much. I''ll be happy with some downpours, thunder and lightning tonight with the front.

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SBUWX23

SBUWX23

Posted
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Im sure the next hours HRRR will show a line blowing through the city. I have seen that model do that countless times. Also, I havent seen the run, but I am sure it didnt initialize the current convection right anyway. correct me if i am wrong.

latest HRRR isn't very encouraging.. wants to keep the main activity north of us with just some isolated convection in NYC metro. Looks like anything that seemed progged to move into our area fizzles out, likely due to the lack of unidirectional shear to sustain the life of the storms.

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tornadojay

tornadojay

Posted
Posted

Im sure the next hours HRRR will show a line blowing through the city. I have seen that model do that countless times. Also, I havent seen the run, but I am sure it didnt initialize the current convection right anyway. correct me if i am wrong.

ok.. thanks. I don't know the biases and other stuff with the HRRR in terms of how it usually handles convection. I just looped it really quickly in the spare time I had while I'm working from home here and noted some real basic stuff. I don't actually know if it initialized correctly.

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SnoSki14

SnoSki14

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I find the best severe weather around here happens when you don't expect it. All those moderate risks or strongly elevated slight risks usually fail but then you get a severe cluster of storms, almost out of nowhere that gives incredible severe weather, and then we all complain how there was no public warning.

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blizzardof09

blizzardof09

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I find the best severe weather around here happens when you don't expect it. All those moderate risks or strongly elevated slight risks usually fail but then you get a severe cluster of storms, almost out of nowhere that gives incredible severe weather, and then we all complain how there was no public warning.

could not agree with you more, my best storms were on a day of isolated storms, whenever i do get storms lol

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SBUWX23

SBUWX23

Posted
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No problem Jay! I know it tries to assimilate current radar but I have seen it miss some key features that end up hurting the run later on. We have some good forcing for ascent coming in later this evening so that should help spur convection but the severity to me is in question. I think we are going to see alot of heavy rain, and maybe a broken line of storms with alot of lightning due to the amount of CAPE, but the severity will be limited.

ok.. thanks. I don't know the biases and other stuff with the HRRR in terms of how it usually handles convection. I just looped it really quickly in the spare time I had while I'm working from home here and noted some real basic stuff. I don't actually know if it initialized correctly.

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psv88

psv88

Posted
Posted

ok.. thanks. I don't know the biases and other stuff with the HRRR in terms of how it usually handles convection. I just looped it really quickly in the spare time I had while I'm working from home here and noted some real basic stuff. I don't actually know if it initialized correctly.

Very true. PErfectly summed it up. eSp out in suffolk county, i remember watching storms slam nassau even, and as soon as they crossed the border, they would fizzle out. The best storms in suffolk usually developed overhead or dropped down from CT

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blizzardof09

blizzardof09

Posted
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Very true. PErfectly summed it up. eSp out in suffolk county, i remember watching storms slam nassau even, and as soon as they crossed the border, they would fizzle out. The best storms in suffolk usually developed overhead or dropped down from CT

yea i swear theres a shield that prevents severe weather here lol. ive even had severe storms drop from CT with a head of steam and when they reach me on the south shore there pretty much just showers

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Snowlover76

Snowlover76

Posted
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yea i swear theres a shield that prevents severe weather here lol. ive even had severe storms drop from CT with a head of steam and when they reach me on the south shore there pretty much just showers

I expect to see that happen with whatever storms we could see tonight.

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tornadojay

tornadojay

Posted
Posted

No problem Jay! I know it tries to assimilate current radar but I have seen it miss some key features that end up hurting the run later on. We have some good forcing for ascent coming in later this evening so that should help spur convection but the severity to me is in question. I think we are going to see alot of heavy rain, and maybe a broken line of storms with alot of lightning due to the amount of CAPE, but the severity will be limited.

thanks.. agreed.. moisture and instability are definitely not the issue.. it's aligning with the forcing mechanism at the right time and having the ability to sustain the convection.

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earthlight

earthlight

Posted
Posted

We should at the very least have a well established elevated instability axis this evening to support elevated storms, should we not be able to advect some of the better effective shear parameters for severe storms in the area...or should the forcing wait until storms cant get rooted.

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blizzardof09

blizzardof09

Posted
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We should at the very least have a well established elevated instability axis this evening to support elevated storms, should we not be able to advect some of the better effective shear parameters for severe storms in the area...or should the forcing wait until storms cant get rooted.

these storms are looking very healthy right now and would be a waste if nothing happens today in our area. i mean you gotta admit early on today still its really developing nicely right now

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tornadojay

tornadojay

Posted
Posted

new mesoscale discussion. Watch maybe coming

mcd0959.gif

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 314

CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY

ACROSS THE WW AREA. WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT NOW NOTED ACROSS THE

POCONOS AND CATSKILLS...AN ADDITIONAL WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED EAST

OF WW314.

DISCUSSION...SEVERAL LINES OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION FORMED THIS

MORNING IN RESPONSE TO FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO AN

APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. A LEADING SURGING OUTFLOW HAS BEEN NOTED

ON 18Z VISIBLE IMAGERY...AND WILL LIKELY INITIATE NEW SEVERE

CONVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE PRIMARY LINE OF CONVECTION. THIS NEW

CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OVERTAKE THE ONGOING ACTIVITY

ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES. GIVEN AMPLE SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION AND

INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS...THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO

PRODUCE DMGG WINDS AND HAIL. DMGG WINDS ARE ESPECIALLY POSSIBLE

ACROSS CNTRL NY...WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS STRONGER THAN TO THE

S.

FARTHER E...A FEW STRONGER CELLS HAVE BEEN NOTED ALONG THE POCONOS

AND CATSKILLS. ALTHOUGH MORE VIGOROUS AND WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY MAY BE

SOMEWHAT DELAYED UNTIL HEIGHTS FALL MORE RAPIDLY...SBCAPE NEAR

2000-2500 J/KG PER MESOANALYSIS AND MODEST EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30 KTS

OVER SERN NY MAY SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS IN THE MEANTIME. WITH

THE NEW ACTIVITY AND AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION FROM THE W...A NEW WW

EAST OF WW314 MAY BE NEEDED.

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SBUWX23

SBUWX23

Posted
Posted

Its 90 at EWR. I doubt thats the sea breeze. The general synoptic flow is southerly right now. I am on LI and I have the sea breeze as its keeping us in the low 80s.

somehow ewr has a seabreeze yet blm doesn't. i can't even find the seabreeze on tdwr

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