snywx Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Disgusting Hopefully we get some good boomers up this way.. Whats ur temp/dew on that side? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 I'm surprised SPC is hitting this as hard as they are -- I was not that impressed with the data...but I always say they are the best at what they do. To me, it looks like a good setup to keep the best stuff west of here. That being said, there is an elevated instability axis through tonight that could keep the storms going. But the effective/0-6km shear didn't impress me at all either...and seemed to be lagging behind the pre frontal trough that's triggering the storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 11AM obs TEB: 88 EWR: 88 NYC: 84 LGA: 87 JFK: 82 ISP: 82 TTN: 85 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 KLGA RAP BUFKIT sounding for 00 UTC May 30th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Obnoxiously humid days like these are the worst. It's already like a sauna outside in Midtown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Today definitely seemed like an overperforming type of day. 87 after a morning low in the mid 70s just didn't sound right. Clouds will have to build in a hurry to keep at least a few locales from hitting 90 again. 11AM obs TEB: 88 EWR: 88 NYC: 84 LGA: 87 JFK: 82 ISP: 82 TTN: 85 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 29, 2012 Author Share Posted May 29, 2012 GFS also now waits until the overnight between 3z to 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 I agree theres not much difference in the way 89 or 90 feels anyway, its more the perception of 90 is heat. Speaking of NYC its caught up to the surrounding sites and is at 84 now (its forecasted high) Yeah, the bigger story may be that even for Central Park the last 5 out of 7 summers have averaged above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Euro keeps hinting at a trough over or nearby the NE coast, GFS a bit more bullish on ridging coming east between the 5th and 7th and thereafter. Perhaps a more zonal compromise is the way to go. Both show a deep trough digging into the west in about a week and beyond. This coming weekend may not be as friendly as the last few - looking a bit unsetteled I would think a ridge in the east is the way to go if a deep trough digs into the west.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 29, 2012 Author Share Posted May 29, 2012 I would think a ridge in the east is the way to go if a deep trough digs into the west.... Not if this setup is correct: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Upgrade to MDT just to our north. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0954.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Moderate risk on the way north of us MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0954 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1043 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN NY...NERN PA...FAR W CNTRL VT CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE VALID 291543Z - 291645Z SUMMARY...AN UPGRADE TO MDT RISK APPEARS TO BE WARRANTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST WITH THE 1630Z OUTLOOK. A PRIMARY THREAT OF DMGG WIND IS EXPECTED...THOUGH LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. AN ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT MAY EXIST ALONG THE HUDSON VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF WRN NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY. DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF A STRONG UPPER TROUGH. WITH VARIOUS AREAS OF INITIATION POSSIBLE AND STORMS APPROACHING FROM THE W...SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS CNTRL NY INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND AND THE SEASONABLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS...AN UPGRADE TO MDT FOR DMGG WINDS APPEARS WARRANTED. PLEASE SEE THE UPCOMING 1630Z OUTLOOK FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Another MCD for potential severe t-storm /tornado watch soon, up north. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0956 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1056 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 291556Z - 291700Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT SUMMARY...GIVEN THE HIGHER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...A WW IS BEING COORDINATED SHORTLY FOR ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WW IS LIKELY FOR WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...A TORNADO WW IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY EWD. DISCUSSION...WITH STORMS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LIKELY LATER TODAY...A WW MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY. SEVERAL AREAS OF NEW INITIATION REMAIN POSSIBLE...INCLUDING ALONG THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH OVER ERN NY...AND ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND NO LONGER CAPPED...NEW INITIATION WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED BY THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL AND FORCING FOR ASCENT APPROACHES THE AREA...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE. A PREDOMINANT THREAT OF DMGG WINDS IS EXPECTED...GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET /25-30 KT 850 MB JET BY THIS AFTERNOON/ AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WITH BACKED SLY SURFACE WINDS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND 70S DEW POINTS...ENHANCED TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY EXIST...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THAT CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION. ..HURLBUT/WEISS.. 05/29/2012 ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 OKX is coordinating with the SPC, so we may see some watches later on if we are able to catch some downstream action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Ideally, you would want to see the convection in Western PA and NY State develop an organized cold pool. That would really help the eastward progress and development through the afternoon and evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Ideally, you would want to see the convection in Western PA and NY State develop an organized cold pool. That would really help the eastward progress and development through the afternoon and evening. agreed and I think it may happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 agreed and I think it may happen The effective shear is farther east than it was forecast so far .. but it looks like it will lag behind the storms triggered by the pre frontal trough today..and then the best 0-6km shear will shift northeast into New England. That is my main concern as far as not getting organized severe storms here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 The sfc-3km lapse rate and sfc-3km mlcape maps look pretty supportive at this hour. But notice how the effective shear is arced to the north from Western PA/NY State and then over New England. This can be a big factor in mitigating severe storm potential. We need to see this shift east towards our area tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Tornado watch going up over NY State/Massachusetts/Vermont Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Tornado watch going up over NY State/Massachusetts/Vermont Figures i was up there yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 The 15z RAP doesn't bring 30kts of 0-6km bulk shear into NYC until after 9z tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 29, 2012 Author Share Posted May 29, 2012 1PM: NYC: 88 LGA: 89 JFK: 83 ISP: 82 TTN: 88 TEB: 90 EWR: 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Said it earlier, but not enthused about the set up with the poor shear ahead of the pre frontal trough especially in our area. It's going to be hard to get organized storms into this environment if they can't develop an organized cold pool and then drop east/southeast into the best instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 its hot out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Storms rapidly firing over NE PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 The breeze is helping in the city (just came in from bryant park) but if you're in the sun for more than 10 minutes forget it its hot out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 I think John is right, we have a very destablilized atmosphere but no real shear to spark storms. Height falls associated with the upper level low are well to our west and north with the best shear also. I do also agree our best shot will be from the leading edge of the cold pool associated with the storms, which might be the reason for the development to our west right now. Nothing really moving this way though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted May 29, 2012 Share Posted May 29, 2012 Anything out front would prob be pulse type.however, with up to 4000j cape, and an EML, could get some severe storms ahead of the main show up your way. Good luck fellas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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