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May observations and discussions...


ag3

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There was a well depicted warm layer at H7 today that really worked to suppress convection. Some forecast models had this warm layer eroding, but I don't think it ever fully did. Plus the mid level winds went to crap after 20z anyway. Anything that develops doesn't look to be organized.

In other news, the NAM was too warm with the temperatures today but LGA and some other locations did get to 90 F or above. The Euro from the end of last week was awful in showing light QPF and temperatures of 75-80 today with the warm front hanging near the area.

As far as tomorrow -- I would be more interested in the severe threat if I lived in Northern New England or NY State where the wind fields are more supportive. I think we could watch plenty of convection over Central/Eastern PA tomorrow that may never make it here. I guess we'll see.

damn earthlight the crappy winter has really carried over and affected our severe weather now, this weather pattern were in truly blows for an advid weather fan lately besides the heat

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damn earthlight the crappy winter has really carried over and affected our severe weather now, this weather pattern were in truly blows for an advid weather fan lately besides the heat

I am starting to get used to the crappy "severe weather" that we see in the NYC metro area, and if there was to be a contest for who sees the crappiest "severe weather" then Long Island would take first place. It is just another reason to move out of the NYC area.

But this stretch of weather from the October snowstorm through now has been the most boring stretch of weather that I can remember.

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I am starting to get used to the crappy "severe weather" that we see in the NYC metro area, and if there was to be a contest for who sees the crappiest "severe weather" then Long Island would take first place. It is just another reason to move out of the NYC area.

But this stretch of weather from the October snowstorm through now has been the most boring stretch of weather that I can remember.

NYC, especially Queens and Brooklyn, have had some epic severe weather over the past couple years including tornadoes and the historic day with the multiple mile wide Macroburst and mini tornado outbreak in Queens.

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NYC, especially Queens and Brooklyn, have had some epic severe weather over the past couple years including tornadoes and the historic day with the multiple mile wide Macroburst and mini tornado outbreak in Queens.

I think in 2007 Brooklyn had a F2 in Bay Ridge a mile from my old house...In 2003 Staten island had a F0 about a half mile from where I live now...Since 1998 NYC has seen more than it's share of storms compared to average...

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The ability for LGA to retain heat is astounding. 79 at 6 AM? Are you kidding? Did we have a high over 100 yesterday? They barely got to 90 for crying out loud. Is there even one place on the easy coast warmer than that right now?

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The ability for LGA to retain heat is astounding. 79 at 6 AM? Are you kidding? Did we have a high over 100 yesterday? They barely got to 90 for crying out loud. Is there even one place on the easy coast warmer than that right now?

Any possible reason for this? One time freak or normal for LGA?

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Any possible reason for this? One time freak or normal for LGA?

LGA is known as the oven of the city, but it really didn't get hot enough yesterday to support such brutal temps this morning. It's not like it's much higher than reality, though. It's hot as hell in my neighborhood too which was kind of surprising. Massive positive departure day coming up.

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I am starting to get used to the crappy "severe weather" that we see in the NYC metro area, and if there was to be a contest for who sees the crappiest "severe weather" then Long Island would take first place. It is just another reason to move out of the NYC area.

But this stretch of weather from the October snowstorm through now has been the most boring stretch of weather that I can remember.

NYC, especially Queens and Brooklyn, have had some epic severe weather over the past couple years including tornadoes and the historic day with the multiple mile wide Macroburst and mini tornado outbreak in Queens.

I think in 2007 Brooklyn had a F2 in Bay Ridge a mile from my old house...In 2003 Staten island had a F0 about a half mile from where I live now...Since 1998 NYC has seen more than it's share of storms compared to average...

its really not the actual nyc area its when you get towards eastern nassau, western suffolk county especially towards the south shore when storms just quickly die. i remember last year when a line came down from conneticut and was really strong, it held its own when it got the north shore of the island, but when it got inland and to the south shore i got rain and like one rumble of thunder i think it lasted like 5 minutes when the line just fell apart completely. its really just disheartening hearing the severe weather reports in reletively close proximity to us but when the storms get to us its just nothing. ive seen us have 3k plus cape and so many parameters met even where i live and it just isnt enough lol. in other news, heres to another great summer day guys

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LGA is known as the oven of the city, but it really didn't get hot enough yesterday to support such brutal temps this morning. It's not like it's much higher than reality, though. It's hot as hell in my neighborhood too which was kind of surprising. Massive positive departure day coming up.

I think that the low of 78 ties the record for the highest minimum ever in May set on 5/31/87.

5/31 78 in 1987

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day1probotlk_1300_wind.gif

day1probotlk_1300_hail.gif

day1probotlk_1300_torn.gif

...NEW ENGLAND INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND MID-ATLANTIC

STATES...

AN EXPANSIVE PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF TSTMS IS ONGOING AS OF 12Z FROM

SWRN ONTARIO/LAKE ERIE SWWD INTO NRN KY...LIKELY FORCED BY THE

LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER SYSTEM

MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. BASED ON SATELLITE

IMAGERY...DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS ACROSS NY/PA SHOULD EXPERIENCE STRONG

DAYTIME HEATING. WHEN COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND

MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 7 C/KM...ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME

MODERATE-STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES INCREASING TO

2000-3000 J/KG. THIS DESTABILIZATION ALONG WITH THE EWD PROGRESSION

OF UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A MARKED INCREASE IN STORM VIGOR AND

COVERAGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG COLD FRONT AND/OR LEADING EDGE OF

COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING STORMS.

THE STRONGEST MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE

TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LAG THE WARM SECTOR TO THE W...LIMITING

DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAGNITUDES TO GENERALLY 30-40 KT. EXPECT THE

STRONG INSTABILITY TO COMPENSATE WITH ENVIRONMENT BECOMING

SUPPORTIVE OF MULTIPLE ORGANIZED STORM MODES...INCLUDING BOWING LINE

SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CORRIDORS OF WIND

DAMAGE AND SWATHS OF LARGE HAIL. THE GREATEST RISK FOR A TORNADO OR

TWO WILL EXIST ALONG WARM FRONT OVER NEW ENGLAND WHERE LOW-LEVEL

SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL SPREAD EWD TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC

COAST AND WRN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE

GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LATER TONIGHT WITH THE STABILIZATION OF THE

BOUNDARY LAYER.

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83/74 this morning, insane dewpoint for late May

Par for the course if you ask me. This is the new normal. It's pathetic that we've recorded such insane above normal departures so many months when these departures are being compared to the warmest 30 year baseline on record (1980-2000.)

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