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May observations and discussions...


ag3

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Great Memorial Day weekend, all the chances for hvy rain and I've only recorded 0.02" since last Wednesday.

88.5/72 right now in Monmouth. I've got a HI of 95. Taste of July - it's brutal out there - strong sun, very little breeze, humid as hell.

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4:45 PM and nothing's popping up on the radar yet... SPC also took down the slight risk from the area, if anything shows up it'll most likely stay isolated. There's still tomorrow night's storm risk although with the approaching cold front more widespread development should take place. The GFS shows heavy QPF amounts near NYC again, while the NAM has scattered activity but no high QPF amounts.

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If you notice the degrees above average are beginning to decline since the obscene 8.4 above peak in March ( when is the last time there was a departure that large in either direction) - La Nina peaked and now we are going neutral into El Nino so one would assume the streak of above average will end soon and we will get a few below normal months maybe just in time for next winter....

I think the last +8 or greater departure here was January 2006. NYC hasn't seen a month with below normal

temperatures outside of the DEC-MAR period since the beginning of 2010. We could continue to run above

normal with this pattern right into the fall. If we get blocking next winter we may see a couple of below normal

months. Without blocking, this warm streak would roll right into 2013.

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There was a well depicted warm layer at H7 today that really worked to suppress convection. Some forecast models had this warm layer eroding, but I don't think it ever fully did. Plus the mid level winds went to crap after 20z anyway. Anything that develops doesn't look to be organized.

In other news, the NAM was too warm with the temperatures today but LGA and some other locations did get to 90 F or above. The Euro from the end of last week was awful in showing light QPF and temperatures of 75-80 today with the warm front hanging near the area.

As far as tomorrow -- I would be more interested in the severe threat if I lived in Northern New England or NY State where the wind fields are more supportive. I think we could watch plenty of convection over Central/Eastern PA tomorrow that may never make it here. I guess we'll see.

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