Isotherm Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 After today (27th) most sites running between 2 and 4 above normal for the month.. EWR: +2.7 NYC: +1.7 LGA: +2.2 JFK: +1.9 TTN: +5.2 We can't seem to break the warm trend, and now I don't think we'll do it this summer either. Crazy stuff. Considering we've seen Mem day weekends in the 50s before, this weekend is quite anomalous and July like in terms of the humidity especially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 We can't seem to break the warm trend, and now I don't think we'll do it this summer either. Crazy stuff. Considering we've seen Mem day weekends in the 50s before, this weekend is quite anomalous and July like in terms of the humidity especially. Amazing even with so many cloudy days this month we're heading towards yet another very warm month on whole for the east. If we can get into enough sun tomorrow i think we see the first 90s for several stations, perhaps tues as well. Looks like we'll build those positive departures through wed. Some other stations ALB: +4.3 ISP : +3.0 MTP: +3.1 PHL: +3.6 ABE: +5.6 BWI: +5.5 DCA: +5.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 and its going to the south of us. the gfs had .75 inches through now, and there is nothing. CTZ009-NYZ071-280230- SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER- 951 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012 ...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT FAIRFIELD AND WESTCHESTER COUNTIES... AT 942 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WHITE PLAINS...AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. THIS STORM WILL BE... NEAR HARRISON BY 955 PM. NEAR PORT CHESTER BY 1005 PM. NEAR STAMFORD BY 1025 PM. NEAR DARIEN BY 1030 PM. SMALL HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. IN ADDITION...VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR...COULD CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS... AND MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. LOL just as bad on the weather side as the sports side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 CTZ009-NYZ071-280230- SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER- 951 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012 ...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT FAIRFIELD AND WESTCHESTER COUNTIES... AT 942 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WHITE PLAINS...AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. THIS STORM WILL BE... NEAR HARRISON BY 955 PM. NEAR PORT CHESTER BY 1005 PM. NEAR STAMFORD BY 1025 PM. NEAR DARIEN BY 1030 PM. SMALL HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. IN ADDITION...VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR...COULD CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS... AND MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. LOL just as bad on the weather side as the sports side. its after 00Z. GFS had a lot of rain for everyone before this. never happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 I think his point is valid though that the GFS had widespread .75 amounts and through most of this evening that did not verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 I think his point is valid though that the GFS had widespread .75 amounts and through most of this evening that did not verify. werd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Weak rolls of thunder no rain, next plz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Had a heavy downpour before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 .54 in 12 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 its after 00Z. GFS had a lot of rain for everyone before this. never happened. GFS tends to exaggerate rain totals in cases like this one when compared to the other models and the actual results. The NAM correctly kept most of the activity to the south/west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 tired of rain everyday, lets have a 7 day stretch with no rain for a change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 nothing here last night-looking torchy today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 GFS tends to exaggerate rain totals in cases like this one when compared to the other models and the actual results. The NAM correctly kept most of the activity to the south/west. yes, that was the point, several posters were humping he gfs and calling for a rainout before 00z yesterday. The new GFS has real precip issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Looks hot/humid and mostly dry today-maybe an isolated boomer here and there, but overall this was a chamber of commerce weekend for most locales. upton going stormy tomorrow with 50-70% chances of storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 The 6z NAM has low to mid 90s for NYC area today. But there is an MCS forming over Lake Ontario now, that could drop south later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 Looks hot/humid and mostly dry today-maybe an isolated boomer here and there, but overall this was a chamber of commerce weekend for most locales. upton going stormy tomorrow with 50-70% chances of storms ok coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 We can't seem to break the warm trend, and now I don't think we'll do it this summer either. Crazy stuff. Considering we've seen Mem day weekends in the 50s before, this weekend is quite anomalous and July like in terms of the humidity especially. Been a long warm trend - NYC is about to break a record on June 30 that will never be broken again - heating degree days July 2011 - through today stands at 3700 - the record is 3887 set in 2001 -2002 - going to break that one by a wide margin.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 NYC monthly temperature departures since 1/10: 5/12 so far....+1.7 4/12.............+1.8 3/12.............+8.4 2/12.............+5.6 1/12.............+4.7 12/11..........+5.8 11/11..........+4.2 10/11..........+0.2 9/11............+2.0 8/11............+0.1 7/11............+3.7 6/11............+1.1 5/11............+1.9 4/11............ +1.8 3/11.............-0.2 2/11.............+1.4 1/11.............-2.4 12/10...........-4.5 11/10...........+0.8 10/10...........+1.5 9/10.............+3.6 8/10.............+2.3 7/10.............+4.8 6/10.............+3.4 5/10.............+2.7 4/10.............+5.4 3/10.............+5.7 2/10.............-1.5 1/10.............+0.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 tired of rain everyday, lets have a 7 day stretch with no rain for a change Not here in Monmouth County; I haven't seen anything since mid last week. Truthfully, I want some storms. It's been pretty boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 yes, that was the point, several posters were humping he gfs and calling for a rainout before 00z yesterday. The new GFS has real precip issues. One of the last upgrades to the GFS last year really reduced the grid scale bombs it had issues with. With this latest update, only the initialization was updated. The model itself was not. Talking to some ppl at HPC, they said that they found a return to some of the grid scale bombs with this latest update, however, that will be short lived because they will go back and adjust the model so that the problem becomes less problematic. In environments like this, a model can go a little nuts with precip due to convection. That is what the gfs had done yesterday. It doesnt have to show a ton of rain for it to be feedback tho. It can be weaker, but still there. I think soon enough, they will have the issue fixed and we will just have to use caution with the model up until that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 If you notice the degrees above average are beginning to decline since the obscene 8.4 above peak in March ( when is the last time there was a departure that large in either direction) - La Nina peaked and now we are going neutral into El Nino so one would assume the streak of above average will end soon and we will get a few below normal months maybe just in time for next winter.... NYC monthly temperature departures since 1/10: 5/12 so far....+1.7 4/12.............+1.8 3/12.............+8.4 2/12.............+5.6 1/12.............+4.7 12/11..........+5.8 11/11..........+4.2 10/11..........+0.2 9/11............+2.0 8/11............+0.1 7/11............+3.7 6/11............+1.1 5/11............+1.9 4/11............ +1.8 3/11.............-0.2 2/11.............+1.4 1/11.............-2.4 12/10...........-4.5 11/10...........+0.8 10/10...........+1.5 9/10.............+3.6 8/10.............+2.3 7/10.............+4.8 6/10.............+3.4 5/10.............+2.7 4/10.............+5.4 3/10.............+5.7 2/10.............-1.5 1/10.............+0.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 11AM roundup TEB: 81 NYC: 78 EWR: 82 LGA: 80 JFK: 80 ISP: 79 TTN: 80 ACY: 82 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0937 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1019 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL AND SERN NY...NERN PA...NRN NJ...SRN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 281519Z - 281615Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...POORLY ORGANIZED MCS OVER CNTRL NY MAY BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND CONTINUE TO PROGRESS ESEWD. SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE BROADER CIRCULATION WILL BE CAPABLE OF DMGG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DISCUSSION...A WEAK UPPER WAVE OBSERVED ON 15Z WV IMAGERY OVER W CNTRL NY APPEARS TO HAVE EMANATED FROM SRN MN 24 HRS AGO. THE SUBTLE WAVE HAS PROVIDED SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR ASCENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CURRENTLY ELEVATED COMPLEX OF STORMS...NOW ORIENTED ACROSS CNTRL NY. 15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A WAVY STATIONARY FRONT FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND TO APPROXIMATELY BUFFALO...AND SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT/SUSTENANCE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE PERSISTENCE OF A BROADER ERN UPPER RIDGE...WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S F AND A LINGERING MOIST AIR MASS /CHARACTERIZED BY DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F/ WILL ERODE REMAINING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST NEAR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE 17-18Z PERIOD...WITH A SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN DMGG WIND POTENTIAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO STEEPEN. THE 12Z BUFFALO SOUNDING REFLECTS AN EWD ADVECTION OF THE EML...WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 C/KM. WITH STRONGER MID-LEVEL WINDS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...OCCASIONALLY ROTATING STORMS AND SEMI-ORGANIZED BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SURFACE-BASED STORMS DEVELOP LATER TODAY. ..HURLBUT/CARBIN.. 05/28/2012 ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 84/72 up this way..... Hot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 12PM Roundup TEB:85 NYC: 82 EWR: 85 LGA: 82 JFK: 81 ISP: 81 TTN: 82 ACY: 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 That MCS isn't looking too healthy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 That MCS isn't looking too healthy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 12PM Roundup TEB:85 NYC: 82 EWR: 85 LGA: 82 JFK: 81 ISP: 81 TTN: 82 ACY: 84 1PM Roundup TEB:85 NYC: 84 EWR: 87 LGA: 84 JFK: 83 ISP: 81 TTN: 84 ACY: 87 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 28, 2012 Share Posted May 28, 2012 mcs fail. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 28, 2012 Author Share Posted May 28, 2012 Relaxing on a crystal clear and pristine North Fork of LI beach. Water is chilly but the scenery is worth it alone. Temp is a gorgeous 79 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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