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May observations and discussions...


ag3

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Warm fronts are tricky. They have a strong tendency to produce more rain than progged. I would watch out anywhere in the Tri-state. Just keep an eye to the sky and the radar.

GFS has over .75" of rain for NYC. So if it does rain, GFS is not underdone.

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the warm front seems to be situated over north-central nj or wherabouts drifting north. it will be interesting to see if we can touch off some convection along the frontal boundary over the next few hours. a few of the short term mesoscale models like the idea.

http://www.meteo.psu...A/anim8vis.html

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/12/today_1h_f10.gif

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Tomorrow looks like a good day for severe weather in New England...I think we might have a slight chance at getting something here later in the day but we should remain generally capped. We could still see some interesting stuff on Tuesday with better kinematic parameters.

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Where are my 90s? My sister in law is telling me she's cold lol.

82F high here. Looks like low 80s for most, big difference from PHL area SW, where they have upper 80s.

Mid atlantic temp anomalies also have been much warmer than NJ northeast.

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