Isotherm Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 The next 7 days don't look that cool to me - generally near to slightly above normal. Tomorrow will be near 80, then around 70 from this weekend through most of next week, which is a bit above normal. The only way we get below normal days is via OVC/rain/onshore flow; sunny days will be above normal. There's virtually no cold air to speak of across Canada, so it will be a battle of sun vs clouds the next couple weeks, with the latter probably producing neg departures days and the former positive departures. Certainly we'll continue to erode the drought, with what looks to be numerous pcpn chances via differential advection and sfc lows through mid May, running around the periphery of the mid level ridge to our west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 3, 2012 Author Share Posted May 3, 2012 The next 7 days don't look that cool to me - generally near to slightly above normal. Tomorrow will be near 80, then around 70 from this weekend through most of next week, which is a bit above normal. The only way we get below normal days is via OVC/rain/onshore flow; sunny days will be above normal. There's virtually no cold air to speak of across Canada, so it will be a battle of sun vs clouds the next couple weeks, with the latter probably producing neg departures days and the former positive departures. Certainly we'll continue to erode the drought, with what looks to be numerous pcpn chances via differential advection and sfc lows through mid May, running around the periphery of the mid level ridge to our west. After tomorrow, forecast temps are mid to upper 60's, which is normal for this time of year. If we get rainy or cloudy skies, which appears likely on a bunch of days, those temps will likely fall short as well. Today was forecasted to be 65 in NYC. So far, the high is 57. Unless we get late clearing, temps are not making it to 65 today. Looking at the visible satellite, it looks highly unlikely we see any clearing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 It has cleared and jumped into the mid 60's in NW NJ so its getting closer. After tomorrow, forecast temps are mid to upper 60's, which is normal for this time of year. If we get rainy or cloudy skies, which appears likely on a bunch of days, those temps will likely fall short as well. Today was forecasted to be 65 in NYC. So far, the high is 57. Unless we get late clearing, temps are not making it to 65 today. Looking at the visible satellite, it looks highly unlikely we see any clearing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWarning Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Marine Layer is kicking butt right now. Currently, clouds are breaking up across Northwest New Jersey. Perhaps Northeast New Jersey ends the day in the Upper 60s if were lucky. http://weather.weath...-satellite.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 3, 2012 Author Share Posted May 3, 2012 12z Euro is pretty putrid days 5-10. Big east coast trough. Hope its wrong. Also has rain, on and off, for the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 18Z Temperatures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 NAM was way off with the low and mid level cloud deck at 19 and 20z http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NAMSFC4_12z/rad7.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 12z Euro is pretty putrid days 5-10. Big east coast trough. Hope its wrong. Also has rain, on and off, for the next few days. GFS was similar I think we're in/out of clouds and rain through mid month. Had to pay the piper at some point and the days it doesnt rain will nice.... So more typical weather. Perhaps back to the warmer/drier pattern second half of may Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 GFS was similar I think we're in/out of clouds and rain through mid month. Had to pay the piper at some point and the days it doesnt rain will nice.... So more typical weather. Perhaps back to the warmer/drier pattern second half of may -NAO/AO with +PNA for the next two weeks will argue against any torch and right now a warm/dry pattern is not in the cards. May is always like the border control month. It can get very warm and torchy in March and especially April (90s) but May always seems to pullback on the heat before we actually move into summer heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 NAM was way off with the low and mid level cloud deck at 19 and 20z http://www.meteo.psu...C4_12z/rad7.gif Models are always way too fast with warm fronts this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Models are always way too fast with warm fronts this time of year. Same goes with these marine airmasses, models are usually late in pointing them out and try to move them out too quickly. Forecast was 70F today for central nj, hit 60 here briefly, now down to 57.6F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Models are always way too fast with warm fronts this time of year. That's the 2nd time the NAM was too warm in the 24 hour range in the last 2 days. On Monday night and Tuesday morning the NAM suddenly showed near 80 degree weather in NE NJ for later that day, which busted 6-10 degrees too warm. It originally had low 60s for today before starting to show 70 degrees late last night and earlier today as well, and the actual high so far was 61. There's been more consistency for 80s west of NYC for tomorrow, but the cloud cover is also questionable as the NAM busted with cloud cover today for NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Those storms in central PA must be producing some serious hail. 54.5 dbz at 40,000 ft. on KOKX radar! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Those storms in central PA must be producing some serious hail. 54.5 dbz at 40,000 ft. on KOKX radar! There's other storms developing around it but at least the bigger storm should stay south of NYC; the storm development seems to be south of where the NAM has it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 the euro did a good job with 2m temps today and it shows us getting into the warm sector tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 22Z Temperatures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cold&cloudy Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 When we get 14 months in a row of below normal temps with several of those months and seasons being in the top 10/5 coldest then I'd agree. Otherwise it's probably a temporary blip in the long term trend. The extremes of winter and March are over though. Since the end of March, temperatures have been within the standard deviation. In that sense, the rubberband did snap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 The extremes of winter and March are over though. Since the end of March, temperatures have been within the standard deviation. In that sense, the rubberband did snap. since April 22nd. The issue this week is clouds for us very warm into the Mid Atl. Next week looks just as ugly so we may have a stretch of 3 straight weeks of normal to below with above normal precip. The strong and sustained warmth and dryer pattern looks to have passed but suspect we haven't fully snapped the rubber band yet and we warm again on/around May 14th and the month finishes on the plus side of normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 Work from 8-8 today...grass was high and wet...felt like a day out of may 09...cant wait for 80s tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 Work from 8-8 today...grass was high and wet...felt like a day out of may 09...cant wait for 80s tomorrow still don't know how or why you save all your cutting for the end of the week, you will learn eventually that the customers are not worth it, sure everyone wants their lawn cut for the weekend, but reality is that it does not make a difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 Work from 8-8 today...grass was high and wet...felt like a day out of may 09...cant wait for 80s tomorrow my guy came yesterday-it was a sloppy cut typical of early spring. The first 4-5 cuts reminded me of a June Lawn. Tough conditions this week for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 Cloudy 50's Nice...better than 80's and humid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 Clouds geting in the way of a nice warm day. I do think we'll see some breaks and peaks of sun, but i think the clouds will hang tough and cap temps in the 70s. If we get the longer breaks some places will touch 80. I had a feeling this would be a clouds in the way week - nextweek looks the same after a nice weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 Clouds geting in the way of a nice warm day. I do think we'll see some breaks and peaks of sun, but i think the clouds will hang tough and cap temps in the 70s. If we get the longer breaks some places will touch 80. I had a feeling this would be a clouds in the way week - nextweek looks the same after a nice weekend. Earlier forecasts of a moderately negative NAO/AO have now almost completely backed off. The AO is progged to slip slightly below 0, but then pretty much hover around neutral for the next couple weeks. NAO should be bouncing around 0 to -0.5 SD. I'll have to disagree about next week. Monday looks beautiful, low 70s, Tuesday into early Wednesday is ugly, but then Thurs-Sat might be quite pleasant as well, with upper 60s and a good deal of sunshine. I think the cloud cover we saw this week is much worse than we'll see next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 Clearing skies, rising temps and increasing winds. Signs that this marine layer is finally on it's death bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 Sun is out now, temps rising, 72F now, not sure about 80F today. This weekend and next week looks fairly comfortable I think, upper 60s/low 70s for the most part, maybe some mid 60s mixed in there next week with some showers. I'll take that, the 80s and 90s can wait at least another month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 4, 2012 Author Share Posted May 4, 2012 Earlier forecasts of a moderately negative NAO/AO have now almost completely backed off. The AO is progged to slip slightly below 0, but then pretty much hover around neutral for the next couple weeks. NAO should be bouncing around 0 to -0.5 SD. I'll have to disagree about next week. Monday looks beautiful, low 70s, Tuesday into early Wednesday is ugly, but then Thurs-Sat might be quite pleasant as well, with upper 60s and a good deal of sunshine. I think the cloud cover we saw this week is much worse than we'll see next week. The NAO is and has been moderately negative over the past 7-10 days and Euro ensembles have it continuing over the next 7-10 days. At the end of their run, they have the nao going near neutral. Im talking strictly nao values. Last week the block was more west based and its now positioning a little more to the east. And the euro ensembles have the -nao being caused by an east based block going forward as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 The NAO is and has been moderately negative over the past 7-10 days and Euro ensembles have it continuing over the next 7-10 days. At the end of their run, they have the nao going near neutral. Im talking strictly nao values. Last week the block was more west based and its now positioning a little more to the east. And the euro ensembles have the -nao being caused by an east based block going forward as well. Per CPC, the NAO has been slightly positive up through the past 1-2 days. It will certainly fall to around -1, but then it will slowly rise thereafter. Not a significant -NAO by any stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 It will be interesting to see if a more -NAO persists into the summer and also its effects on the hurricane season. Some believe we may be at risk again from another TS/Hurricane late summer/early fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 It will be interesting to see if a more -NAO persists into the summer and also its effects on the hurricane season. Some believe we may be at risk again from another TS/Hurricane late summer/early fall. Yeah it will be interesting, as a -NAO vs +NAO definitely has temperature implications for the Northeast US, especially if we approach weak nino territory in a couple months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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