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May observations and discussions...


ag3

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Looks like a predominately interior convective event. Severe thermodynamic parameters are much less impressive for NYC, LI, and CNJ (most of us). Kinematics are extremely lacking -- bulk effective shear basically non-existant. Higher MUCAPE, LI values inland will promote some intense, slow-moving pulse T-storms. Low level lapse rates actually pretty decent as well across the interior. However, given the poor wind field into the mid levels, most of this convection will have a difficult time reaching NYC, LI and CNJ IMO. Best spots for today should remain in NNJ (esp NW of EWR) and from Bronx NW.

86 was my high. 82 OVC now.

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Looks like a predominately interior convective event. Severe thermodynamic parameters are much less impressive for NYC, LI, and CNJ (most of us). Kinematics are extremely lacking -- bulk effective shear basically non-existant. Higher MUCAPE, LI values inland will promote some intense, slow-moving pulse T-storms. Low level lapse rates actually pretty decent as well across the interior. However, given the poor wind field into the mid levels, most of this convection will have a difficult time reaching NYC, LI and CNJ IMO. Best spots for today should remain in NNJ (esp NW of EWR) and from Bronx NW.

86 was my high. 82 OVC now.

PW values also impressive for this time of year, so those under the convection in NW zones may receive 1-3" of rain in short order.

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That was just a really nice cell merger over Rockland and Westchester .

Beautiful looking on radar. And it is now warned:

WUUS51 KOKX 262000

SVROKX

NYC087-119-262100-

/O.NEW.KOKX.SV.W.0003.120526T2000Z-120526T2100Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

400 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

  WESTCHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...

  ROCKLAND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...

* UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

* AT 359 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND

  DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR

  HAVERSTRAW...AND MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO UPPER

  NYACK...NYACK...OSSINING...NORTH TARRYTOWN...YORKTOWN HEIGHTS...

  MOUNT KISCO AND HAWTHORNE

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

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The NAM nailed today's scattered strong storm activity; I got stuck under one of those big storms along I-80 earlier this afternoon. I didn't see any hail although there was a lot of rain. Tomorrow should be more interesting, I'm spending the weekend in NE Pennsylvania where the NAM shows another risk of widespread strong storms tomorrow in the late afternoon/evening.

rad36.gif

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