Brian5671 Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 0z euro tried to get clearing into our area for the afternoon and the evening. Looking at the visible satellite, I can see how that might occur in a few hours. socked in here with sheet drizzle...hard to see how it happens, but maybe for parts of the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 The newly upgraded GFS brings a ring of fire MCS through the region on Sunday. You can track the MCV from near Chicago later on Saturday. Around the end of May last year we had a MCS roll through here very early in the morning. It will be interesting to see how the updated GFS will do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 Yup-it was Memorial Day itself-no forecast for rain and woke up to t-storm and blinding rain-was clear by 10am and muggy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 0z euro tried to get clearing into our area for the afternoon and the evening. Looking at the visible satellite, I can see how that might occur in a few hours. Some more breaks pushing into PA. I think we see more breaks like you mentioned thi afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 22, 2012 Author Share Posted May 22, 2012 socked in here with sheet drizzle...hard to see how it happens, but maybe for parts of the area There are breaks in the sky here in Queens. Can see blue sky for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 The newly upgraded GFS brings a ring of fire MCS through the region on Sunday. You can track the MCV from near Chicago later on Saturday. Around the end of May last year we had a MCS roll through here very early in the morning. It will be interesting to see how the updated GFS will do. Is this the first operational run since the upgrade? Not surprisingly, the 12z gfs made a huge jump towards the Euro/Euro ensembles handling of central Pacific ridge/upper level low diving down the west coast early in the period...This has huge implications on the pattern during and after the heat wave of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 Is this the first operational run since the upgrade? Not surprisingly, the 12z gfs made a huge jump towards the Euro/Euro ensembles handling of central Pacific ridge/upper level low diving down the west coast early in the period...This has huge implications on the pattern during and after the heat wave of course. Yes. dtk just posted this in the main forum: NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS PRODUCTION MANAGEMENT BRANCH SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NOUS42 KWNO 221542 ADMNFD SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD 1538Z TUE MAY 22 2012 AS A REMINDER TO USERS.. THERE WAS A SCHEDULED NEW GFS IMPLEMENTATION TODAY.. THE TIN LINK IS BELOW. THE CHANGE WENT IN FOR THE 12Z CYCLE THIS MORNING. http://www.nws.noaa....s_hybridaab.htm NEWBY/SDM/NCO/NCEP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 Yes. dtk just posted this in the main forum: NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS PRODUCTION MANAGEMENT BRANCH SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NOUS42 KWNO 221542 ADMNFD SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD 1538Z TUE MAY 22 2012 AS A REMINDER TO USERS.. THERE WAS A SCHEDULED NEW GFS IMPLEMENTATION TODAY.. THE TIN LINK IS BELOW. THE CHANGE WENT IN FOR THE 12Z CYCLE THIS MORNING. http://www.nws.noaa....s_hybridaab.htm NEWBY/SDM/NCO/NCEP Wow, That's cool to see such an immediate drastic difference from the 00z run in how it handled the west coast in the coming days, more like the euro ensemble mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 Wow, That's cool to see such an immediate drastic difference from the 00z run in how it handled the west coast in the coming days, more like the euro ensemble mean. I am glad to see the improvements. The comments in the main forum highlight some of the positives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 I almost thought we might make it through May without a 90F degree temp, but guess not, unless the warmth is overestimated that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 Heavy, heavy downpour right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 The newly upgraded GFS brings a ring of fire MCS through the region on Sunday. You can track the MCV from near Chicago later on Saturday. Around the end of May last year we had a MCS roll through here very early in the morning. It will be interesting to see how the updated GFS will do. Ya i was camping in the catskills for that one...i was positive i was going to be fried in my tent, thunderstorms while camping is cool, but that **** was scary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 Definitely sounds like a defective Temp/Hum sensor. I am sure you tried the drain the ISS transmitter route & make sure connection on transmitter board is fine. Then reconnect and power back up transmitter. I had your issue with DVP1 before upgrading years ago to the DVP2! Time to call up Davis and have them send you a new one and send back the old one. Thanks for the info. My outdoor temp/hum is working right now, almost immediately after the sun broke out in the past hour. Do you think the problem could be that I need a new lithium battery for the station? I put in a new temp/hum sensor about 3 years ago, so it just seems weird that I'd need to replace it again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 Thanks for the info. My outdoor temp/hum is working right now, almost immediately after the sun broke out in the past hour. Do you think the problem could be that I need a new lithium battery for the station? I put in a new temp/hum sensor about 3 years ago, so it just seems weird that I'd need to replace it again. When you need to replace the lithium battery you will get a low battery message on the console. I've only had to replace the battery once in almost nine years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 Ya i was camping in the catskills for that one...i was positive i was going to be fried in my tent, thunderstorms while camping is cool, but that **** was scary That long-lived MCV eventually became invest 93L. It was remarkable how long that feature maintained its identity. http://www.americanw...842#entry725842 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 When you need to replace the lithium battery you will get a low battery message on the console. I've only had to replace the battery once in almost nine years. Ok, thanks. It's most likely the sensor repeatedly drying out/getting wet then. Looks like I'll have to take the thing apart, which is always a pain in the arse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 The DGEX has a nice south turning MCS signal on the periphery of the heat ridge from New England down towards our area around 120 hours. Also 90 + heat a handful of days in a row. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/DGEXEAST_18z/dgexloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 Including near 100 F temps on Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 100 on monday? I'll take the under Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 100 on monday? I'll take the under It's the DGEX at 144. AKA one of earthlight's favorite heat models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 It's the DGEX at 144. AKA one of earthlight's favorite heat models. Wonder what it would show for a real 100 degree day, 125+? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 That long-lived MCV eventually became invest 93L. It was remarkable how long that feature maintained its identity. http://www.americanw...842#entry725842 wow, i hadnt seen that thread, pretty ridiculous that that thing went all the way to mexico! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 Wonder what it would show for a real 100 degree day, 125+? It's the same model that shows mid 20s at sea level with snow when there is literally no cold air source to be found for 1000 miles. Always fun to look at though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 John, While the dgex has its value at times, I wouldn't put too much stok in its temp profiles in the medium range. Too many times I've seen it run WAY too high this year. Just my 3 cents... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 John, While the dgex has its value at times, I wouldn't put too much stok in its temp profiles in the medium range. Too many times I've seen it run WAY too high this year. Just my 3 cents... Never said anything about putting any stock in it at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 23, 2012 Author Share Posted May 23, 2012 4km NAM has some thunderstorms in the area this afternoon. Keeps it mostly west of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 23, 2012 Author Share Posted May 23, 2012 4km NAM has some thunderstorms in the area this afternoon. Keeps it mostly west of NYC. 0z Euro gets the city involved with the thunderstorm action. Has potent cells from all of NYC and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 Its nice to see some sunshine during a week day. Already up to 70 here but some clouds lingering by most of the day before some storms later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 The chance of storms today looks to be just inland away from the marine influence where the atmosphere can destabilize more. Any storms will be capable of very heavy rains as they will be nearly stationary with very light winds aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 23, 2012 Author Share Posted May 23, 2012 The chance of storms today looks to be just inland away from the marine influence where the atmosphere can destabilize more. Any storms will be capable of very heavy rains as they will be nearly stationary with very light winds aloft. That's according to the GFS. Euro keeps the marine boundary east of the city and gets the city involved with convection this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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