snywx Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 Already 74F up this way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 75 right now after another 43.6F low. Beautiful day number three out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 75 right now after another 43.6F low. Beautiful day number three out there. I'd say bottle this one up because we don't get these types of days very often, but we've had a ton of nice days since early March. This spring has been pretty spectacular, I must say. We got down closer to normal just in time for normal temps to be very pleasant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 75 right now after another 43.6F low. Beautiful day number three out there. Dropped to 41F this morning.. Currently 81F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 At this time the Memorial Day Weekend heat potential looks like a heat "delayed but not denied" type of scenario. With the current pattern, it's clear that the core of the ridge and the highest departures will stay west, near the central US, with a trough in SE Canada perhaps resulting in more back door cold front influence around the Memorial Day Weekend time period and going into the following week. Regardless of the core of the heat staying west, in scenarios like the one currently modeled a brief surge of heat is a reasonable possibility ahead of an approaching cold front. The 12z ECMWF for what it's worth shows 2 surges of warmth, one around Saturday and a stronger one towards the middle of the following week (picture below). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 saturday is looking like our first real chance at 90 this year. both the ecmwf and gfs are warm enough at 850mb to support 90 at the sfc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 saturday is looking like our first real chance at 90 this year. both the ecmwf and gfs are warm enough at 850mb to support 90 at the sfc Upton and Mount Holly are not on board yet with 90 degree temps through Saturday http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fpus51.KOKX.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 saturday is looking like our first real chance at 90 this year. both the ecmwf and gfs are warm enough at 850mb to support 90 at the sfc 26th and i would bet sunday and perhaps memorial day trend hotter still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 i love this cycle....beautiful weekends followed by rainy weekdays. mon-thur has the cut off, off the coast, just lingering around as the ridge in the N Atlantic is well entrenched. a "pattern" per say or flow that EC snow lovers would die for in Jan/Feb. prob wont rain every day this week but clouds will be abundant. the cut off then looks to lift out just in time for another great wknd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 26th and i would bet sunday and perhaps memorial day trend hotter still. those both show good patterns for nw flow severe events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 A tropical storm already developing down south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 absolutely perfect weather yesterday, mid-70s, clear skies, light winds... pardon my OT but i'm just so proud to share my life achievement so far lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 It looks like the east based -NAO pattern will keep the back door cold front close to the Northeast next weekend. We'll have to see how the models handle the details in order to know what the extent of the warmth will look like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 GFS has lowered temps quite a bit for next weekend and beyond - 850's only topping out around 15 next saturday - first 90 degree day at stations in the area that did not hit 90 in April might be delayed into at least early June - the way it looks as of today http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=KEWR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 It looks like the east based -NAO pattern will keep the back door cold front close to the Northeast next weekend. We'll have to see how the models handle the details in order to know what the extent of the warmth will look like. If it wasn't for that strong SE Canadian trough we'd be baking in the 90s for parts of this time period. With that east based -NAO and the possible strong low in SE Canada the back door cold front should play a significant role in the region by limiting the extent of the heat to our south/west and perhaps setting up for some NW flow severe wx event(s). The GFS/DGEX show the potential for thunderstorms, while the CMC suppresses this potential to the south. Regardless of the BDCF there could still be a brief surge of warmth at some point during the weekend ahead of the cold front, although at least with the latest trends a bigger surge of warmth appears somewhat less likely than it did 1-2 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 If it wasn't for that strong SE Canadian trough we'd be baking in the 90s for parts of this time period. With that east based -NAO and the possible strong low in SE Canada the back door cold front should play a significant role in the region by limiting the extent of the heat to our south/west and perhaps setting up for some NW flow severe wx event(s). The GFS/DGEX show the potential for thunderstorms, while the CMC suppresses this potential to the south. Regardless of the BDCF there could still be a brief surge of warmth at some point during the weekend ahead of the cold front, although at least with the latest trends a bigger surge of warmth appears somewhat less likely than it did 1-2 days ago. The models really hold the 50/50 in place with a big Canadian High behind it. It will be really important where the back door actually sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 If it wasn't for that strong SE Canadian trough we'd be baking in the 90s for parts of this time period. With that east based -NAO and the possible strong low in SE Canada the back door cold front should play a significant role in the region by limiting the extent of the heat to our south/west and perhaps setting up for some NW flow severe wx event(s). The GFS/DGEX show the potential for thunderstorms, while the CMC suppresses this potential to the south. Regardless of the BDCF there could still be a brief surge of warmth at some point during the weekend ahead of the cold front, although at least with the latest trends a bigger surge of warmth appears somewhat less likely than it did 1-2 days ago. commonly known as The Ring Of Fire - fun times ahead if that pans out........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 If it wasn't for that strong SE Canadian trough we'd be baking in the 90s for parts of this time period. With that east based -NAO and the possible strong low in SE Canada the back door cold front should play a significant role in the region by limiting the extent of the heat to our south/west and perhaps setting up for some NW flow severe wx event(s). The GFS/DGEX show the potential for thunderstorms, while the CMC suppresses this potential to the south. Regardless of the BDCF there could still be a brief surge of warmth at some point during the weekend ahead of the cold front, although at least with the latest trends a bigger surge of warmth appears somewhat less likely than it did 1-2 days ago. I think it might get hot for a couple of days if the ridge really asserts itself, but the trough over SE Canada is also strong and will keep the backdoor front very close by. The Midwest looks like ground zero for a long duration heat wave. Thunderstorms could certainly be a possibility over top of the ridge as others have been saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 Hows the rain look this weekend? As in days that might be washouts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 Hopefully next weekend is nice. Have a BBQ to go to on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 Hows the rain look this weekend? As in days that might be washouts Mt Holly in their disco said models are varying for tomorrow and it may not be an all day washout and the morning might be the best bet for it being dry. Hope to finally get a full week in for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 It looks like the dry pattern that we had back in April and May might be making a comeback. It looks like after this weeks rain, we will be back in another dry and very warm pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted May 20, 2012 Share Posted May 20, 2012 It looks like the dry pattern that we had back in April and May might be making a comeback. It looks like after this weeks rain, we will be back in another dry and very warm pattern. Per 18z GFS looks like a stormy patteren long range but nothing out of the ordinary. Also this may has not really been all that dry it's been rather active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 20, 2012 Author Share Posted May 20, 2012 Mt Holly in their disco said models are varying for tomorrow and it may not be an all day washout and the morning might be the best bet for it being dry. Hope to finally get a full week in for once. Models have on and off rain all week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 20, 2012 Author Share Posted May 20, 2012 Euro has rain pretty much all day tomorrow with the heaviest rain in the afternoon and evening. 18z NAM and GFS are pretty similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueSkiesFading Posted May 21, 2012 Share Posted May 21, 2012 Anyone notice the crazy spread in dewpoints across the metro area? EWR, JFK, and most of Long Island have a dewpoint near 55-57. Meanwhile TEB has a dewpoint of 28, and CDW 30. It's been like that for hours too. EWR and TEB are only 10-15 miles apart, so to have a 29 degree difference in dewpoints is pretty crazy. Just thought that was interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted May 21, 2012 Share Posted May 21, 2012 Anyone notice the crazy spread in dewpoints across the metro area? EWR, JFK, and most of Long Island have a dewpoint near 55-57. Meanwhile TEB has a dewpoint of 28, and CDW 30. It's been like that for hours too. EWR and TEB are only 10-15 miles apart, so to have a 29 degree difference in dewpoints is pretty crazy. Just thought that was interesting. Yeah I noticed at my station this afternoon some large dewpoint fluctuations in just a short period of time...between 1pm and 5pm the dew point went from 45 down to 33 then back up to 58. The temp during that time ranged from 73 to 69 and I didnt notice any real wind direction changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 21, 2012 Share Posted May 21, 2012 The temperature has been rising over the last hour or so, dropped down to 63 now back up to 65 with a DP of 62, humidity 88%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 21, 2012 Share Posted May 21, 2012 heavy rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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