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May observations and discussions...


ag3

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Hopefully this weekend (the entire weekend) will go as planned with comfortable temps int he low to mid 70's and comfortable nights.. However, if heat is going to come, Memorial Day weekend is always a good start....

Great for the beaches (even though the water is still cool) and obviously pool weather.. It's the unoffical start to the summer and by early june we are usually in the mid 70's - low 80's each day..

Good weekend weather is all I have to look forward to.. I could care less if it rains during the week..

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Hopefully this weekend (the entire weekend) will go as planned with comfortable temps int he low to mid 70's and comfortable nights.. However, if heat is going to come, Memorial Day weekend is always a good start....

Great for the beaches (even though the water is still cool) and obviously pool weather.. It's the unoffical start to the summer and by early june we are usually in the mid 70's - low 80's each day..

Good weekend weather is all I have to look forward to.. I could care less if it rains during the week..

I think real heat's (85 or higher) a long way away if it comes at all with this pattern. On average it could even be substantially cooler near the coast. An east wind dominated pattern with frequent cloudy/showery spells will make it quite difficult to get warm. The troughiness over eastern Canada is concerning too, meaning backdoor threats. If the heat does come, it will come when eventually the cutoff or low to the south is kicked out and the heat can build in over the top. It looks much hotter for the Midwest.

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12z GFS says hello summer - Memorial Day weekend torch w/ +20c 850s, probably widespread 90s if correct. June also looks to start out very warm. Could see some mid/upper 90s with this type of synoptic.

Enjoying the relative cool today - 68F, but feels like 80 in the sun, with no breeze.

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12z GFS says hello summer - Memorial Day weekend torch w/ +20c 850s, probably widespread 90s if correct. June also looks to start out very warm. Could see some mid/upper 90s with this type of synoptic.

Enjoying the relative cool today - 68F, but feels like 80 in the sun, with no breeze.

12z GEFS showing the big heat ridge over Eastern US, by Memorial Day weekend as well:

post-187-0-65418600-1337364544_thumb.gif

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You can't say something like the bolded and then walk away from it. Either explain what was misleading or don't comment at all. Now we're all wondering what in bluewave's post may or may not have been misleading.

Fine, if you insist.

Let's start off with this statement:

2010 was the warmest year globally

Which is misleading, because statistically, 1998, 2005, and 2010 were roughly all of the same, and the differences between these years is not statistically significant.

And this statment,

Doesn’t it appear that whatever has caused global temperatures to rise over the past four decades is still going strong?

Because since the sun was causing Global Warming, this is no longer the case. If the PDO/AMO contributed, this is no longer the case.

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12z GFS says hello summer - Memorial Day weekend torch w/ +20c 850s, probably widespread 90s if correct. June also looks to start out very warm. Could see some mid/upper 90s with this type of synoptic.

Enjoying the relative cool today - 68F, but feels like 80 in the sun, with no breeze.

Today is basically perfection.

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12z GFS says hello summer - Memorial Day weekend torch w/ +20c 850s, probably widespread 90s if correct. June also looks to start out very warm. Could see some mid/upper 90s with this type of synoptic.

Enjoying the relative cool today - 68F, but feels like 80 in the sun, with no breeze.

850 mb temps near 20C with mainly sunshine and WSW/SW winds will easily support mid 90s. A lot of the bigger heat waves during the summer and late summer (such as the late August 2010 heat wave) where temperatures reached at least the mid 90s or above had 850mb temps in the 18-22C range. In this particular case the 12z GFS is likely overdone IMO; the region should likely be in the eastern side of the ridge, keeping the core of the heat to the west while preventing a prolonged heat wave here, especially if the cutoff low to the south shown on the ECM verifies, although a 1-2 day surge of heat is a reasonable possibility with the current scenarios shown on the models.

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Agreeing on the warm up with the models however I think we will soon see the usual backing off occur to more reasonable temperatures though a day or 2 of 90 degree temps now seen reasonable. The frontal system on the GFS for next weekend will be rather interesting. I could see that front trying to come closer where it stalls will be in question but hey it is over a week out.

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Agreeing on the warm up with the models however I think we will soon see the usual backing off occur to more reasonable temperatures though a day or 2 of 90 degree temps now seen reasonable. The frontal system on the GFS for next weekend will be rather interesting. I could see that front trying to come closer where it stalls will be in question but hey it is over a week out.

The issue with this idea is that we aren't in early spring anymore -- and the agreement is very good amongst the models. Just look at the spread on the GEFS -- it's very small for a 204 hours forecast. Barring a completely blown forecast, it looks like we could be looking at our first heat signal of the year. 586dm ridge and 20C 850's almost assures 90 degrees. If southeast Canada stays very active, you may see the models trend towards keeping the heat shorter-lived. But either way it looks like we're going to be in a hot pattern by the 25th of May.

f204.gif

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1965 has been tossed around as an analog and it had near record heat the second half of May...Some other years with late May heat are 1959, 1964, 1965, 1969, 1986, 1987...It looks like we could exceed 90 degrees this May...TWT...

warmest temperatures...

99 5/19/1962

97 5/29/1969

97 5/30/1987

96 5/20/1996

96 5/22/1941

96 5/27/1880

96 5/29/1987

96 5/31/1895

96 5/31/1939

95 5/25/1880

95 5/26/1880

95 5/27/1914

94 5/09/1979

94 5/10/1979

94 5/23/1964

94 5/26/1965

94 5/26/1914

94 5/28/1959

94 5/30/1986

94 5/31/1987

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This coming mon - thu we will have to deal with the low off the SE/MA coast meandering north. Then it may be off to the races especially by next sat (5/26) into memorial day. Beyond there the final days to close the month look warm as well.

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