Allsnow Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 Any rain next week? Need to get alot of work done...leave for Florida with gf Thursday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 Any rain next week? Need to get alot of work done...leave for Florida with gf Thursday night Euro has been consistent with influence from the cutoff low between mon and wed/thu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 What was wrong with yesterday and today? I guess he likes to pay high electric bills . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 43.6F morning low here, pretty chilly for mid/late May. 65 and brilliant sun now. Can't get better than this. Westhampton Beach fell to 38F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 Perfect sleeping weather. I dread having to turn on my noisy AC when the heat returns. 43.6F morning low here, pretty chilly for mid/late May. 65 and brilliant sun now. Can't get better than this. Westhampton Beach fell to 38F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 43.6F morning low here, pretty chilly for mid/late May. 65 and brilliant sun now. Can't get better than this. Westhampton Beach fell to 38F. Fell to 38F up here as well... Now 59F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 43.1F low in Muttontown this morning, was ideal radational cooling night around the area! Now 65F outside under full sunshine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 Hopefully this weekend (the entire weekend) will go as planned with comfortable temps int he low to mid 70's and comfortable nights.. However, if heat is going to come, Memorial Day weekend is always a good start.... Great for the beaches (even though the water is still cool) and obviously pool weather.. It's the unoffical start to the summer and by early june we are usually in the mid 70's - low 80's each day.. Good weekend weather is all I have to look forward to.. I could care less if it rains during the week.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 18, 2012 Author Share Posted May 18, 2012 East winds over the weekend are a waste of this nice weather for fisherman, boaters and beachgoers. Such nice weather but a waste for outdoor people like myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 Hopefully this weekend (the entire weekend) will go as planned with comfortable temps int he low to mid 70's and comfortable nights.. However, if heat is going to come, Memorial Day weekend is always a good start.... Great for the beaches (even though the water is still cool) and obviously pool weather.. It's the unoffical start to the summer and by early june we are usually in the mid 70's - low 80's each day.. Good weekend weather is all I have to look forward to.. I could care less if it rains during the week.. I think real heat's (85 or higher) a long way away if it comes at all with this pattern. On average it could even be substantially cooler near the coast. An east wind dominated pattern with frequent cloudy/showery spells will make it quite difficult to get warm. The troughiness over eastern Canada is concerning too, meaning backdoor threats. If the heat does come, it will come when eventually the cutoff or low to the south is kicked out and the heat can build in over the top. It looks much hotter for the Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 All indications are that we get into a ridge east/trof west pattern after next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 12z GFS says hello summer - Memorial Day weekend torch w/ +20c 850s, probably widespread 90s if correct. June also looks to start out very warm. Could see some mid/upper 90s with this type of synoptic. Enjoying the relative cool today - 68F, but feels like 80 in the sun, with no breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 Maybe this year will start off like 2008? Except the major heat wave might be coming about a week or so earlier. June 2008 was a torch, followed by a warm July and cool August. The summer overall was on the warm side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 12z GFS says hello summer - Memorial Day weekend torch w/ +20c 850s, probably widespread 90s if correct. June also looks to start out very warm. Could see some mid/upper 90s with this type of synoptic. Enjoying the relative cool today - 68F, but feels like 80 in the sun, with no breeze. 12z GEFS showing the big heat ridge over Eastern US, by Memorial Day weekend as well: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 You can't say something like the bolded and then walk away from it. Either explain what was misleading or don't comment at all. Now we're all wondering what in bluewave's post may or may not have been misleading. Fine, if you insist. Let's start off with this statement: 2010 was the warmest year globally Which is misleading, because statistically, 1998, 2005, and 2010 were roughly all of the same, and the differences between these years is not statistically significant. And this statment, Doesn’t it appear that whatever has caused global temperatures to rise over the past four decades is still going strong? Because since the sun was causing Global Warming, this is no longer the case. If the PDO/AMO contributed, this is no longer the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 GFS has 20C+ 850 temps by the end of next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 12z GFS says hello summer - Memorial Day weekend torch w/ +20c 850s, probably widespread 90s if correct. June also looks to start out very warm. Could see some mid/upper 90s with this type of synoptic. Enjoying the relative cool today - 68F, but feels like 80 in the sun, with no breeze. Today is basically perfection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 The 12z NAM is not particularly enthusiastic for large amounts of rains for eastern sections of NJ as the 6z NAM had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 GFS has 20C+ 850 temps by the end of next week Wow. That would be mid or even upper 90s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 18Z Observations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 Wow. That would be mid or even upper 90s. Let's hope it stays at 180 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 Take a look at the KMHX long range radar, and if you didn't know any better... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 12z GFS says hello summer - Memorial Day weekend torch w/ +20c 850s, probably widespread 90s if correct. June also looks to start out very warm. Could see some mid/upper 90s with this type of synoptic. Enjoying the relative cool today - 68F, but feels like 80 in the sun, with no breeze. 850 mb temps near 20C with mainly sunshine and WSW/SW winds will easily support mid 90s. A lot of the bigger heat waves during the summer and late summer (such as the late August 2010 heat wave) where temperatures reached at least the mid 90s or above had 850mb temps in the 18-22C range. In this particular case the 12z GFS is likely overdone IMO; the region should likely be in the eastern side of the ridge, keeping the core of the heat to the west while preventing a prolonged heat wave here, especially if the cutoff low to the south shown on the ECM verifies, although a 1-2 day surge of heat is a reasonable possibility with the current scenarios shown on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 Had to log in just to share this. Have a nice weekend boys and girls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 Agreeing on the warm up with the models however I think we will soon see the usual backing off occur to more reasonable temperatures though a day or 2 of 90 degree temps now seen reasonable. The frontal system on the GFS for next weekend will be rather interesting. I could see that front trying to come closer where it stalls will be in question but hey it is over a week out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 Agreeing on the warm up with the models however I think we will soon see the usual backing off occur to more reasonable temperatures though a day or 2 of 90 degree temps now seen reasonable. The frontal system on the GFS for next weekend will be rather interesting. I could see that front trying to come closer where it stalls will be in question but hey it is over a week out. The issue with this idea is that we aren't in early spring anymore -- and the agreement is very good amongst the models. Just look at the spread on the GEFS -- it's very small for a 204 hours forecast. Barring a completely blown forecast, it looks like we could be looking at our first heat signal of the year. 586dm ridge and 20C 850's almost assures 90 degrees. If southeast Canada stays very active, you may see the models trend towards keeping the heat shorter-lived. But either way it looks like we're going to be in a hot pattern by the 25th of May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 1965 has been tossed around as an analog and it had near record heat the second half of May...Some other years with late May heat are 1959, 1964, 1965, 1969, 1986, 1987...It looks like we could exceed 90 degrees this May...TWT... warmest temperatures... 99 5/19/1962 97 5/29/1969 97 5/30/1987 96 5/20/1996 96 5/22/1941 96 5/27/1880 96 5/29/1987 96 5/31/1895 96 5/31/1939 95 5/25/1880 95 5/26/1880 95 5/27/1914 94 5/09/1979 94 5/10/1979 94 5/23/1964 94 5/26/1965 94 5/26/1914 94 5/28/1959 94 5/30/1986 94 5/31/1987 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 00Z Observations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 This coming mon - thu we will have to deal with the low off the SE/MA coast meandering north. Then it may be off to the races especially by next sat (5/26) into memorial day. Beyond there the final days to close the month look warm as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 15Z Observations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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