winterwarlock Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 me likey the long range...torch me please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 http://wattsupwithth...ws across U.S. BTW the USA is not the entire globe. The pattern of record highs exceeding record lows is global and not just limited to the USA. That link that you posted challenging the US temperature record doesn't hold up to when examined by NOAA. http://www.ncdc.noaa...response-v2.pdf Q. Is there any question that surface temperatures in the United States have been rising rapidly during the last 50 years? A. None at all. Even if NOAA did not have weather observing stations across the length and breadth of the United States the impacts of the warming are unmistakable. For example, lake and river ice is melting earlier in the spring and forming later in the fall. Plants are blooming earlier Page 3 of 4in the spring. Mountain glaciers are melting. Coastal temperatures are rising. And a multitude of species of birds, fish, mammals and plants are extending their ranges northward and, in mountainous areas, upward as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 increased stratification of the antarctic ocean results in less mixing of saltier water from below, making it easier to freeze. what causes increased stratification? surface warming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 increased stratification of the antarctic ocean results in less mixing of saltier water from below, making it easier to freeze. what causes increased stratification? surface warming if you don't understand this, google "thermocline" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 00Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 The forecasts for sunshine and upper 70s into early next week seem a bit generous IMO... although the weekend looks like an almost certain lock for sunshine and 70s, other than the GFS, the rest of the models show a more organized cutoff low south of the area, drifting north with more cloud cover and some showers for Monday through Tuesday/Wednesday, starting as early as Sunday on some models. Some of these models are probably exaggerating it a bit, with the ECM showing an organized heavy rain event on Monday-Tuesday, but in my opinion the idea of more clouds and some showers starting around Sunday night-Monday is more reasonable than the sunshine and upper 70s/80s that the GFS is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 The forecasts for sunshine and upper 70s into early next week seem a bit generous IMO... although the weekend looks like an almost certain lock for sunshine and 70s, other than the GFS, the rest of the models show a more organized cutoff low south of the area, drifting north with more cloud cover and some showers for Monday through Tuesday/Wednesday, starting as early as Sunday on some models. Some of these models are probably exaggerating it a bit, with the ECM showing an organized heavy rain event on Monday-Tuesday, but in my opinion the idea of more clouds and some showers starting around Sunday night-Monday is more reasonable than the sunshine and upper 70s/80s that the GFS is showing. Hoping that damn cutoff weakens in future runs, it could ruin what would otherwise be several days of stellar weather near the coast. East winds from an ocean low plus a high north of us are still killer until after Memorial Day, sometimes even into June. Crazy to imagine, but it's a scenario where Maine could be 15-20 degrees warmer than many of us. I also think the predictions of sunny/upper 70s are way overdone if the cutoff is for real and there's a notable surface low south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 Hoping that damn cutoff weakens in future runs, it could ruin what would otherwise be several days of stellar weather near the coast. East winds from an ocean low plus a high north of us are still killer until after Memorial Day, sometimes even into June. Crazy to imagine, but it's a scenario where Maine could be 15-20 degrees warmer than many of us. I also think the predictions of sunny/upper 70s are way overdone if the cutoff is for real and there's a notable surface low south of us. Through Saturday for most and Sunday away from the coastal areas, getting into the mid-upper 70s with sunshine shouldn't be that hard to reach, with a NE/ENE wind modeled as opposed to a SE wind. Starting on Monday, perhaps Sunday on some models but I'm not so sure about that, is when the cutoff could ruin the stretch of nice weather and when the sunny skies and upper 70s would likely be overdone. The 12z ECM keeps the area in the 60s on Monday with rain while northern Maine gets into the low 80s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 Beautiful morning...a sundog algreek type day coming....time to cut cut cut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 Big torch on the 0z Euro. First heat wave looking possible later next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 70's down to the beaches with a warm offshore flow today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 Big torch on the 0z Euro. First heat wave looking possible later next week. Looked like a big torch west of the Apps on that run. The cutoff generally looked weaker but the big time heat looks like it holds off from making it this far east until the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 70's down to the beaches with a warm offshore flow today. And fantastic waves, perfect day in Long Beach! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 And fantastic waves, perfect day in Long Beach! Yeah, the waves should be building over the next few days with a persistent easterly flow developing. The New GFS on the right set to go operational this month maintains the low to our south like the other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 The pattern of record highs exceeding record lows is global and not just limited to the USA. That link that you posted challenging the US temperature record doesn't hold up to when examined by NOAA. http://www.ncdc.noaa...response-v2.pdf Q. Is there any question that surface temperatures in the United States have been rising rapidly during the last 50 years? A. None at all. Even if NOAA did not have weather observing stations across the length and breadth of the United States the impacts of the warming are unmistakable. For example, lake and river ice is melting earlier in the spring and forming later in the fall. Plants are blooming earlier Page 3 of 4in the spring. Mountain glaciers are melting. Coastal temperatures are rising. And a multitude of species of birds, fish, mammals and plants are extending their ranges northward and, in mountainous areas, upward as well. http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/11/12/ncar-number-of-record-highs-beat-record-lows-if-you-believe-the-quality-of-data-from-the-weather-stations/ since the PDO flip, the global temp has been going down. THESE ARE NCEP TEMPS: GLOBAL TEMPS FOR THE YEAR ARE ON THE NCEP SITE THEY ARE BELOW NORMAL -.04 AND THAT IS WITH THE WARM USA AND THE VERY WARM AMO INDUCED ARCTIC, WHICH IS BECAUSE OF THE WARM CYCLE IN THE ATLANTIC Snow cover increase n hem since pdo flip: 2007-Arctic sea Ice to be gone by 2012? Here is the current arctic ice extent: http://worldnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/04/23/11144098-gaia-scientist-james-lovelock-i-was-alarmist-about-climate-change?lite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 http://wattsupwithth...ather-stations/ since the PDO flip, the global temp has been going down. THESE ARE NCEP TEMPS: GLOBAL TEMPS FOR THE YEAR ARE ON THE NCEP SITE THEY ARE BELOW NORMAL -.04 AND THAT IS WITH THE WARM USA AND THE VERY WARM AMO INDUCED ARCTIC, WHICH IS BECAUSE OF THE WARM CYCLE IN THE ATLANTIC Snow cover increase n hem since pdo flip: 2007-Arctic sea Ice to be gone by 2012? Here is the current arctic ice extent: http://worldnews.msn...ate-change?lite 2010 was the warmest year globally and 2011 was the warmest on record for the Arctic. May 2011 to April 2012 was the warmest 12 month period for the US. The Texas State Climatologist has an article on how El Nino and La Nina influence temperatures during any given year. http://blog.chron.co...ack-of-warming/ So we see a couple of recent La Niñas have caused the recent global temperature trend to level off. But be honest: doesn’t it seem likely that, barring another major volcanic eruption, the next El Niño will cause global temperatures to break their previous record? Doesn’t it appear that whatever has caused global temperatures to rise over the past four decades is still going strong? So about that lack of warming: Yes, it’s real. You can thank La Niña. As for whether this means that Tyndall gases are no longer having an impact: Nice try. http://data.giss.nas...Ann.Ts dSST.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 You know the weather is boring around here when a regional weather discussion turns into long term climate change... I'm very passionate about Climate Change, and think that there were a few misleading comments by bluewave, but I won't contribute to the off topic discussion. It was a very nice day today with low humidities and temperatures cooler than yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 18, 2012 Author Share Posted May 18, 2012 Why is Facebook watching my thread and why has this turned into a climate change discussion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 Amazing night. Clear and 50.2F right now after a 72.6F high. Looking forward to mid 40s tonight here in Monmouth and beautiful sleeping weather. Repeat the next few days. We don't get stretches of weather like this too often. Usually it's in late September or early October when it does happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 I'm surprised no one is talking about the NAMs coastal. Upton isn't buying it as the GFS and ECMF are weaker. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 I'm surprised no one is talking about the NAMs coastal. Upton isn't buying it as the GFS and ECMF are weaker. Thoughts? various potential influences from the cut off hanging around the southeast. GFS offers the least impact/rain while the ecm continues to hint at some rain chances mon - thu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 I think the bigger story is the heat signal lining up for memorial day weekend into the last week of may/start of June. first 90s for areas perhaps. On/around 5/26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 Through May 17th TEB: +2.3 NYC: + 1.0 EWR: +2.3 LGA: +1.8 JFK: + 1.6 TTN: +5.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 You know the weather is boring around here when a regional weather discussion turns into long term climate change... I'm very passionate about Climate Change, and think that there were a few misleading comments by bluewave, but I won't contribute to the off topic discussion. It was a very nice day today with low humidities and temperatures cooler than yesterday. You can't say something like the bolded and then walk away from it. Either explain what was misleading or don't comment at all. Now we're all wondering what in bluewave's post may or may not have been misleading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 I think the bigger story is the heat signal lining up for memorial day weekend into the last week of may/start of June. first 90s for areas perhaps. On/around 5/26 beautiful music to my ears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 Through May 17th TEB: +2.3 NYC: + 1.0 EWR: +2.3 LGA: +1.8 JFK: + 1.6 TTN: +5.1 Right around normal in other words (the new normal, that is.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 beautiful music to my ears What was wrong with yesterday and today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 I think the bigger story is the heat signal lining up for memorial day weekend into the last week of may/start of June. first 90s for areas perhaps. On/around 5/26 Yeah, you can see the big ridge north of Hawaii with a trough in the West and the ridge over the East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted May 18, 2012 Share Posted May 18, 2012 As long as the humidity stays away I guess I'll deal with the heat. That day we had a few days ago where the dews were through the roof felt awful and it wasn't even that warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 18, 2012 Author Share Posted May 18, 2012 As long as the humidity stays away I guess I'll deal with the heat. That day we had a few days ago where the dews were through the roof felt awful and it wasn't even that warm. Yesterday was a perfect and normal day. NYC came in with a 0.0 departure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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