Isotherm Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Anyone under those storms in NE NJ? I was seeing fairly frequent flashes in the northern sky here in central NJ, checked the radar, and the closest action is about 25-30 miles north of me. Nocturnal convection is the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Had one rumble but mostly just heavy rain Anyone under those storms in NE NJ? I was seeing fairly frequent flashes in the northern sky here in central NJ, checked the radar, and the closest action is about 25-30 miles north of me. Nocturnal convection is the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Anyone under those storms in NE NJ? I was seeing fairly frequent flashes in the northern sky here in central NJ, checked the radar, and the closest action is about 25-30 miles north of me. Nocturnal convection is the best. Storm I3 in southern Bergen county is headed towards my direction. I'd guess it's about 15-20 miles to my SW or so although I didn't see any lightning with it so far. EDIT: Just now starting to hear slightly more frequent thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormwarn Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Storm I3 in southern Bergen county is headed towards my direction. I'd guess it's about 15-20 miles to my SW or so although I didn't see any lightning with it so far. EDIT: Just now starting to hear slightly more frequent thunder. Picked up a quick 1.13"in about a 20 minute time frame. Had two very close strikes just to my north. I'm 2 miles north of the Meadowlands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 16, 2012 Author Share Posted May 16, 2012 So far, including today, NYC has recorded rain in 11 out of the 16 days in May. Looks like the next 5 days will be dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 So far, including today, NYC has recorded rain in 11 out of the 16 days in May. Looks like the next 5 days will be dry. Goes to show how warm the pattern has been the last few years that temps still run above normal. Very hard to get a below normal month here outside of strong blocking during the winter. NYC DPTR FM NORMAL: 0.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 And that's global warming related right, all this warmth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 And that's global warming related right, all this warmth? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 And that's global warming related right, all this warmth? without a doubt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Hopefully the long range models are correct and we'll see a break in this marine influence pattern by Memorial Day weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 The clouds are taking their sweet time moving out today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 The next 6 days will feature one of the nicest stretches of spring weather in recent memory. Hopefully the long range models are correct and we'll see a break in this marine influence pattern by Memorial Day weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 The next 6 days will feature one of the nicest stretches of spring weather in recent memory. It looks like generallly above normal temperatures with the ohshore flow limiting the heat potential. We could see some real warmth by memorial Day weekend if the Bermuda High sets up and taps the heat building over the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 16, 2012 Author Share Posted May 16, 2012 It looks like generallly above normal temperatures with the ohshore flow limiting the heat potential. We could see some real warmth by memorial Day weekend if the Bermuda High sets up and taps the heat building over the SW. This is definitely a hot pattern if last night's 0z models are right: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Really humid outside. Temps around 70. =( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 And that's global warming related right, all this warmth? Though not in Europe. As they are seeing freezing temps and snow. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 And that's global warming related right, all this warmth? I don't agree with the others. It could be contributing a certain percentage, but to say it's solely the cause or even the primary cause, is wrong in my opinion. FYI - coldest May in 300+ years in Britain: http://www.metro.co....ay-in-300-years Also - arctic sea ice is near normal right now, a better state than most of the past decade. Southern hemisphere sea ice, which is rarely talked about, has trended upwards in recent decades (if both the northern and southern hemisphere were below normal ice, then I'd be concerned, but that's not the case): Global sea ice has actually been slightly above normal recently: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Sea Ice in the southern hemisphere is not affected the same way Arctic ice is. Isotherm I know you know this. And take a good look at the Arctic sea ice. By coverage it may be normal right now, but it's thin as hell and breaking up allover the place already and in places where it doesn't normally do so no less. I bet we will see a major downturn in sea ice coverage beyond the normal seasonal reduction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 12z gfs goes to town the with ridge during Memorial day weekend. Closed off 588 contour over the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 It looks like generallly above normal temperatures with the ohshore flow limiting the heat potential. We could see some real warmth by memorial Day weekend if the Bermuda High sets up and taps the heat building over the SW. Today's GFS looks pretty benign - sunny the next several days, and next week's rain chances don't look significant. Coastal areas will be cooler this weekend, but I doubt we're talking OVC/60F and marine layer at least for Sat-Sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Sea Ice in the southern hemisphere is not affected the same way Arctic ice is. Isotherm I know you know this. Correct -- due to the significant amount of landmass in the northern hemisphere vs the southern hemisphere, the arctic sea ice is bound to shift above/below normal in a much more anomalous fashion. However, the fact that the southern sea ice has been above normal tells me that the northern hemisphere phenomenon has been largely due to the buildup of ocean heat from the positive/warm PDO phase of 1980-2008 and the positive/warm AMO from 1995-present. Now that we've reversed the PDO, I think we'll see the overall trend line of arctic sea ice anomalies begin to increase. I'd be much more inclined to buy into the whole AGW argument if southern hemisphere sea ice was also below normal, which would indicate a more global phenomenon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Correct -- due to the significant amount of landmass in the northern hemisphere vs the southern hemisphere, the arctic sea ice is bound to shift above/below normal in a much more anomalous fashion. However, the fact that the southern sea ice has been above normal tells me that the northern hemisphere phenomenon has been largely due to the buildup of ocean heat from the positive/warm PDO phase of 1980-2008 and the positive/warm AMO from 1995-present. Now that we've reversed the PDO, I think we'll see the overall trend line of arctic sea ice anomalies begin to increase. I am sure a part of the warmup in the Arctic is due to decadal cycles, however they don't explain the significant warmups that have occurred on the Antarctic peninsula. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 12z gfs goes to town the with ridge during Memorial day weekend. Closed off 588 contour over the area. Given the warm up is still far out it seams highly likely the length of it will be overdone on the models we have seen this countless times this year again and a again even on the euro. with that said it does seam likely the pattern is setting it's self up for at least a brief 1 or 2 day warm up into the mid 80s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 80/66 and partly cloudy right now and very summery. Yet another day this week that was originally supposed to be gloomy, but is not bad at all. Disappointed with only 0.25" of rain for this week; I was hoping for at least 0.75" based on prior model projections. Dew points will be falling off tonight, and the next few days look like winners for mid May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 80/66 and partly cloudy right now and very summery. Yet another day this week that was originally supposed to be gloomy, but is not bad at all. Disappointed with only 0.25" of rain for this week; I was hoping for at least 0.75" based on prior model projections. Dew points will be falling off tonight, and the next few days look like winners for mid May. yeah another winner. I think aside from about 5 or 6 days this May is shaping up to be very nice, then there appears to be growing support for some sustained warmth into the last 10 days of the month.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Though not in Europe. As they are seeing freezing temps and snow. Lol A warming climate does not mean that you won't see cold patterns anymore. It just means that the ratio of record highs to lows will continue to increase like we have been seeing. https://www2.ucar.ed...-lows-across-us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Don't want to deal with this humid crap right now. I would gladly take mid 80s with low humidity than low 70s with dews in the mid to upper 60s, felt like a sauna outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Winds will be out of the north late tonight and tomorrow should be gorgeous...and repeat Friday Saturday and Sunday. My guess is interior locations will end up in the low 80s on at least one or two of the next 5 days Don't want to deal with this humid crap right now. I would gladly take mid 80s with low humidity than low 70s with dews in the mid to upper 60s, felt like a sauna outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 Don't want to deal with this humid crap right now. I would gladly take mid 80s with low humidity than low 70s with dews in the mid to upper 60s, felt like a sauna outside. I would gladly take 60s over 70s and 80s without humidity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted May 16, 2012 Share Posted May 16, 2012 A warming climate does not mean that you won't see cold patterns anymore. It just means that the ratio of record highs to lows will continue to increase like we have been seeing. https://www2.ucar.ed...-lows-across-us http://wattsupwiththat.com/?s=Record+high+temperatures+far+outpace+record+lows+across+U.S.+ BTW the USA is not the entire globe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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