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May observations and discussions...


ag3

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Northern parts of the area could get some strong thunderstorm activity late tomorrow afternoon. With highs in the low-possibly mid 80s and partly sunny skies and an approaching cold front there should be enough instability for storms to develop especially further north. SPC has a Slight Risk to the north of NYC tomorrow as well.

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why is the sun out, it was supposed to rain most of the day. We got that initial slug midmorning but really nothing more than a few times of drizzle with brightening skies after. About a half inch. I would say the forecast busted somewhat. When you work outside and rely on the mets for accurate starting and end times I have seen all too many of these days that were not forecasted actually. You might say it didnt bust it rained a half inch but at this point in forecasting how can they not be able to pinpoint a timeframe. This was a 90 minute event for me.

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why is the sun out, it was supposed to rain most of the day. We got that initial slug midmorning but really nothing more than a few times of drizzle with brightening skies after. About a half inch. I would say the forecast busted somewhat. When you work outside and rely on the mets for accurate starting and end times I have seen all too many of these days that were not forecasted actually. You might say it didnt bust it rained a half inch but at this point in forecasting how can they not be able to pinpoint a timeframe. This was a 90 minute event for me.

I'd say bust as well, especially based on what prior model runs were indicating. I've got 0.25" of rain to show for these BS clouds the past few days. 2.05" for the month, about average to date. With the next 7 days looking dry, we'll be heading into the last week of May around 2-2.5" across the area, which really isn't wet at all. I need 3.9" for May to be average. With that said, I'm not surprised with the precip pattern as the analogs I had for May suggested only near avg precip, with the most anomalous precip to our W/S.

72F and partly cloudy right now - very humid as well - dew point 68. Muggiest day so far this warm season.

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The NAM keeps a stubborn marine layer right along coastal sections tomorrow.

It will be interesting to see how much the clouds clear tomorrow, there will likely be clearing for most places, although the NAM in some cases tried to clear cloud cover too fast and too much. Depending on how much clearing there is some places could get close to 85 degrees again.

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I'd say bust as well, especially based on what prior model runs were indicating. I've got 0.25" of rain to show for these BS clouds the past few days. 2.05" for the month, about average to date. With the next 7 days looking dry, we'll be heading into the last week of May around 2-2.5" across the area, which really isn't wet at all. I need 3.9" for May to be average. With that said, I'm not surprised with the precip pattern as the analogs I had for May suggested only near avg precip, with the most anomalous precip to our W/S.

72F and partly cloudy right now - very humid as well - dew point 68. Muggiest day so far this warm season.

Euro has several chances of rain next week mon - fri. Hoping we dont get in to a cloudy period again....

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Euro has several chances of rain next week mon - fri. Hoping we dont get in to a cloudy period again....

Looks unfortunately like a cool easterly flow pattern could set up if we have a ridge stretch over top of a low that could cutoff to our south. That would be raw and miserable weather again, hopefully the last couple of Euro runs are wrong and it's a progressive low or it isn't there/weaker.

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Looks unfortunately like a cool easterly flow pattern could set up if we have a ridge stretch over top of a low that could cutoff to our south. That would be raw and miserable weather again, hopefully the last couple of Euro runs are wrong and it's a progressive low or it isn't there/weaker.

Through Sunday it doesn't look raw and miserable at least away from the coast (from Sunday into next week is a different story though). It certainly doesn't have a very warm look as the warmth stays north, but low-mid 70s isn't too bad for this time of the year.

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Through Sunday it doesn't look raw and miserable at least away from the coast (from Sunday into next week is a different story though). It certainly doesn't have a very warm look as the warmth stays north, but low-mid 70s isn't too bad for this time of the year.

We'll see what later runs indicate. This week was originally progged to be very gloomy from Sun-Thurs, but Sunday was beautiful, and I had a couple hours of sunshine both yesterday and this afternoon. Tomorrow's a warm summer day w/ a good amount of sun and low 80s, then beautiful Thurs-Fri into Sat/Sun. My point is weather forecasts have generally been more pessimistic than reality with regards to both clouds and rain over the past 7 days. Let's see if things change for Sun-Thurs of next week.

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